Colombia Stocks Rally on Ecopetrol +3.16% as Supreme Court Kills Tariffs

Colombian equities closed the week on a decidedly bullish note as the MSCI COLCAP surged 1.32% to 2,417.81 — its highest close since late January and just 5.6% below the all-time high of 2,562 set on January 27. Friday’s advance extended the index’s weekly gain to 2.1%, its best five-day performance since early February.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

Ecopetrol was the standout performer, rallying 3.16% to COP 2,285 as Brent crude hit six-month highs above $71/bbl on escalating US–Iran tensions. The state oil company has now gained 5.5% on the week, its strongest weekly advance in months, ahead of its March 4 earnings report. Grupo Cibest (Bancolombia) added 2.15% to COP 84,700, posting a remarkable 5.2% weekly gain that underscored renewed institutional appetite for Colombian financials.

Banco de Bogotá rose 1.64% to COP 42,080, while Corficolombiana gained 3.8% for the week and Terpel tacked on 2.5%. On the downside, Grupo Argos fell 1.78% to COP 17,620 and remains the week’s worst performer at −4.2%. Nutresa shed 1.51% on the session despite posting a 3.6% weekly gain. Banco Popular (−4.8% for the week) and BHI (−3.7%) also underperformed.

The peso continued to weaken against the dollar on Friday as the USDCOP spot closed at COP 3,717.50, up COP 19.06 from Thursday’s close and marking a fourth straight session of dollar gains. Intraday, the pair ranged from a low of COP 3,667 to a high that matched the close at COP 3,717.50, with over USD 1.374 billion traded across 1,838 transactions on the Set-FX platform.

The official TRM for Friday was COP 3,695.72, while the next-day TRM (Saturday/Sunday) was set at COP 3,691.34 — COP 4.38 lower. The dollar’s 1.46% weekly advance against the peso reflects a combination of Iran-driven risk repricing, the disappointing US Q4 GDP print of 1.4% (well below the 2.5% consensus), and the US Supreme Court’s landmark ruling striking down most 2025 tariffs, which injected fresh uncertainty into trade policy.

Despite the peso’s weekly slide, the Colombian currency remains 10.8% stronger than a year ago, supported by Banco de la República’s hawkish 10.25% policy rate — one of the highest real rates in the region. The central bank’s January 30 minutes, published on February 4, revealed the 100-basis-point hike was driven by concerns over accelerating inflation expectations and fiscal slippage. Markets remain priced for an extended hold through mid-2026.

The daily chart shows the COLCAP closing at 2,417.81 after printing a strong bullish candle (O: 2,392.61 / H: 2,417.81 / L: 2,379.77 / C: 2,417.81), with the close matching the session high — a hallmark of buyer conviction. The index is trading well above all major moving averages and the 200-day SMA sits at 1,928.63, confirming the long-term uptrend remains firmly intact.

The RSI reads 58.40/54.37, comfortably in neutral-to-bullish territory after pulling back from overbought levels in late January. The MACD histogram has flipped to negative at −10.53 (signal: 32.71 vs. 22.18), but both lines remain positive, suggesting a constructive consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The Bollinger Bands are widening after the recent squeeze, which typically precedes a directional move.

Friday was a whiplash session for global markets. US Q4 GDP came in at just 1.4% annualized — sharply below the 2.8% consensus — largely due to the impact of the government shutdown, sending stocks lower in early trade. But the US Supreme Court’s 6–3 decision striking down most of Trump’s 2025 tariffs triggered a swift reversal, with the S&P 500 recovering to close up 0.69% at 6,909.51 and the Nasdaq gaining 0.90%.

Oil markets dominated the headlines as President Trump escalated rhetoric against Iran, saying he was considering a “limited military strike” and warning of “really bad things” if Tehran doesn’t reach a nuclear deal within ten days. Brent crude surged to six-month highs at $71.30/bbl, with analysts flagging scenarios of $100+ oil if a strike materializes. Gold rallied 1.67% to $5,080.90/oz as haven demand intensified.

The DXY edged down 0.16% as markets digested the weak GDP data alongside the tariff ruling. PCE inflation for December accelerated to 2.9% annually, above the 2.8% consensus, keeping the Fed firmly on hold. Markets continue to price two rate cuts for 2026, though the combination of slowing growth and sticky inflation complicates the outlook.

The week ahead will be dominated by the Iran situation. Trump’s self-imposed ten-day deadline for a deal puts the decision window squarely within this coming week, and any escalation toward military action could send Brent well above $75 — a tailwind for Ecopetrol but a headwind for the peso through higher risk premiums and dollar demand. Conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough would likely deflate the oil premium rapidly.

On the domestic front, Ecopetrol’s Q4 2025 earnings are due March 4 and will be closely watched for guidance on capex, production targets, and the company’s breakeven under various Brent scenarios. The Supreme Court tariff ruling creates a new trade policy vacuum in the US that could benefit emerging market currencies in the medium term if it leads to lower global trade barriers — though the near-term reaction has been muted.

Locally, the government’s decree fixing the minimum wage increase at 23.7% remains in focus as a potential inflationary impulse. With BanRep at 10.25% and no cuts in sight, the carry trade supporting the peso should remain intact, but the Iran premium and capital outflows could test the COP 3,700 floor in the coming sessions.

Friday’s session confirmed the COLCAP’s resilience: the index absorbed weak US GDP data, a peso wobble, and geopolitical shock, still closing at its best level in nearly a month. The bullish technical setup (RSI in the mid-50s, price above all key MAs, close at session high) suggests the path of least resistance remains up toward the 2,425–2,527 resistance zone. However, the peso’s sudden weakness to COP 3,717 and Brent’s geopolitical premium are both double-edged: oil above $70 supports Ecopetrol and fiscal revenues, but any military escalation could trigger risk-off flows that overwhelm the carry advantage. Near-term range: COLCAP 2,380–2,450; USD/COP 3,660–3,750.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

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