Colombia: Promigás Warns Gas Deficit Is Now Structural

From Coyuntural to Structural

Colombia’s gas pipeline operator has changed its language on the country’s energy shortfall. Promigás says the deficit has stopped being “coyuntural,” the Spanish word for temporary or cyclical.

In a report released this week, the company called it a structural gas deficit instead. That single word shift signals a much harder problem for the next government to fix.

Production in Free Fall

The numbers behind that shift are stark. National gas production dropped 12% in 2025 compared with the year before, according to Promigás data reported by Colombian outlets this week.

Measured against 2021, the decline reaches 31%. Colombia is now producing roughly a third less gas than it did just four years ago.

Proven reserves tell the same story. They have fallen from 3.16 trillion cubic feet in 2021 to 1.72 trillion cubic feet by the end of 2025.

That is a drop of nearly half in under five years. Reserves measure how many years of supply Colombia has left at current extraction rates.

Imports Take Over

Colombia has plugged the gap with imported liquefied gas, regasified at coastal terminals. Average regasified volumes rose from just 5 million cubic feet per day in 2021 to 174 million in 2025.

Through August 2026, imports made up 28% of the country’s total gas supply. In August alone, that share climbed to 34%, Promigás said.

An expansion of import infrastructure once planned for September 2027 has now been moved up to October 2026. Colombia is racing to build capacity it did not expect to need this soon.

Demand Is Already Shrinking

Higher import-linked prices appear to be pushing consumption down. Non-thermal gas demand fell 7% between January and August 2026, compared with the same period the previous year.

Industrial gas demand alone contracted 23% over that stretch. Colombia’s natural-gas vehicle fleet and its petroleum sector also used measurably less gas.

Promigás president Juan Manuel Rojas warned the risk is not only about averages. A single unexpected drop at one field, he said, can now ripple through entire market segments.

Five Fixes Promigás Wants

The company laid out five priorities for policymakers. First, secure and diversify imports, including clearer rules for sharing infrastructure costs among users.

Second, revive domestic production through new exploration, faster reserve conversion, and unconventional resources. The long-delayed Sirius offshore project was named specifically as a priority to accelerate.

Third, expand transport capacity toward consumption centers. A planned VIM-Interior pipeline connection could add up to 400 million cubic feet of daily capacity, Promigás estimates.

Fourth, restore regulatory stability so infrastructure projects get approved on a predictable timeline. Fifth, protect vulnerable households and competitive industries with targeted subsidies rather than blanket price increases.

Rojas summed up the dilemma in blunt terms. Colombia, he said, must work on securing imports now and rebuilding domestic supply for later, at the very same time.

A Warning Foretold

This is not the first alarm on Colombian gas. Industry group Andesco warned in January that monthly deficit risk could hit 39% in 2026 and 58% in 2027.

Promigás’s new report suggests those warnings are no longer theoretical. The country crossed real thresholds this year, not just risk-model projections.

What changed is the framing, not just the numbers. Regulators previously treated shortfalls as temporary supply hiccups tied to weather or single-field outages.

Calling the deficit structural means something different. It means the underlying reserve base itself can no longer support Colombia’s current demand without permanent, large-scale imports.

Why Foreign Residents Should Care

Colombia prices much of its regulated gas off a formula tied partly to imported costs. As imports grow from a third of supply toward more, household and business gas bills are more exposed to global price swings.

Industrial users, already down 23% in consumption this year, face a similar exposure. Businesses that depend on cheap domestic gas for manufacturing now compete for a shrinking, import-heavy pool.

The timeline Promigás sketched runs through the rest of this decade. Whether Colombia’s next government funds the fixes it proposed will shape gas prices for years to come.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does “structural” gas deficit mean? Promigás says the shortfall no longer stems from temporary conditions, but from a reserve base too small for current demand.

How much has production fallen? National gas output dropped 12% in 2025 and 31% cumulatively since 2021, according to Promigás.

How much of Colombia’s gas is now imported? Imported, regasified gas reached 34% of total supply in August 2026, up from almost none in 2021.

What does Promigás want done? Faster import infrastructure, revived exploration, better pipeline capacity, regulatory stability, and targeted subsidies for vulnerable consumers.

Has this been warned about before? Yes, industry group Andesco flagged rising deficit risk in January, though this week’s report treats the shortfall as now structural.

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