Colombia Power Rationing on 1992 Scale Would Cost US$9.6 Billion, Study Finds
Colombia · Energy
Key Facts
- —What happened Lumen Economic Intelligence estimated that a 1992-style rationing would cost 30.7 trillion pesos (about US$9.6 billion).
- —Who is behind it Lumen, led by former Fedesarrollo chief Luis Fernando Mejía, presented it at the electricity generators’ congress in Bogotá.
- —The catch It is a hypothetical worst case, not a forecast; Lumen’s milder scenarios cost far less.
- —Why it matters Hydropower supplied about three-fifths of Colombia’s electricity in August, and El Niño is cutting river flows.
- —The grid today XM reported reservoirs at 79.36% of useful capacity on 31 August 2026, with August inflows at 74.46% of normal.
- —What the regulator did CREG began a six-month scheme on 1 September 2026 that surcharges heavy users and rewards savers.
A Bogotá consultancy has priced a repeat of Colombia’s year-long 1992 blackouts. Reservoirs are still near 80%, but river flows are falling as El Niño strengthens.
A Colombia power rationing like that of 1992 would cost 30.7 trillion pesos (about US$9.6 billion), a private consultancy estimates. Lumen Economic Intelligence says such cuts would also put up to 210,000 jobs at risk.
The warning comes as El Niño, the Pacific warming that brings drought to much of Colombia, gathers strength. Hydroelectric dams produced about three-fifths of the country’s electricity in August, according to grid data reported by La República.
Who made the estimate
Lumen is a Bogotá economic consultancy run by Luis Fernando Mejía, a former executive director of Fedesarrollo, Colombia’s best-known economic think tank. He presented the study at the annual congress of Acolgen, the association of electricity generators.
Acolgen’s members sell the power whose shortage is at issue, and the group is pressing the government to speed up new generation. Mejía presented the study on Friday 18 September 2026 at the congress in Bogotá.
The study models three hypothetical scenarios rather than predicting that rationing will happen. In the mildest, 1.5% of demand goes unmet for four months, costing 1.2 trillion pesos (about US$380 million).
A moderate case leaves 5% of demand unserved for five months, at 8 trillion pesos (about US$2.5 billion). The severe case copies 1992, with 6.8% of demand unmet for 11 months.
What the headline figure measures
The 30.7 trillion pesos (about US$9.6 billion) is not a straight loss of gross domestic product. Lumen priced the unsupplied energy with rationing-cost values from UPME, the state energy planning unit, La República reported.
About 25 trillion pesos (about US$7.8 billion) is lost production, equal to 1.3% of GDP. The remaining 5.7 trillion pesos (about US$1.8 billion) is lost household welfare, according to Lumen.
The total equals 1.6% of GDP, a measure of scale rather than a growth forecast. In the severe case, Lumen also estimates that 480,000 more Colombians would fall into monetary poverty.
The dollar figures here use a rate of 3,192.92 to the US dollar. That is the official TRM exchange rate set by the Financial Superintendency for 19 to 21 September 2026.
Mejía framed the study as a call to act early. “Securing energy supply must be a priority of economic policy,” he said, in remarks reported by El Colombiano.
The state of the grid
XM, the company that runs Colombia’s grid and wholesale power exchange, reported reservoirs at 79.36% of useful capacity on 31 August 2026. By 15 September they had eased to about 79%, La República reported.
The worry is inflow. River flows into the reservoirs reached only 74.46% of the August historical average, the fourth month running below normal, XM said.
Antioquia, home to many of the largest dams, received just 50.4% of its usual water. In July, XM projected that aggregate reservoirs could fall to 20.69% by December, the lowest on record, ABC Economía reported.
New supply is also running late. Only 1,027 of the 4,475 megawatts of capacity scheduled for 2026 were operating by 10 September, Lumen said.
Acolgen projects an energy deficit of 7.8% in 2027, Infobae reported. Its president, Natalia Gutiérrez, said the new government had inherited “energy security in intensive care” from its predecessor.
What the El Niño forecasters say
The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA, the United States weather agency, said on 10 September 2026 that El Niño is strengthening. It put the chance of a “very strong event” this northern autumn and winter at more than 90%.
IDEAM, Colombia’s weather and hydrology institute, said in August that the event would very likely last into early 2027. It forecast less rain across the Pacific, Andean and Caribbean regions, Portafolio reported.
IDEAM gave a 69% chance of very strong intensity between October and December. At that level, IDEAM said, the event would sit in the very strong category from September 2026 to February 2027.
What the government and the regulator are doing
President Abelardo de la Espriella took office on 7 August 2026. His minister of mines and energy, María Nohemí Arboleda, previously ran XM for more than five years.
Vice President José Manuel Restrepo told the Acolgen congress that the government was making every effort to avoid rationing, El Heraldo reported. Vice Minister of Energy Armando Cuello described a “perfect storm” of weak finances, gas shortages, delays and El Niño.
CREG, the energy and gas regulator, has started with price signals. Under its resolutions 101 120 and 101 126 of 2026, a six-month savings scheme began on 1 September 2026.
Each user’s target is its average consumption over the previous 12 months. Use more than 10% above target pays a surcharge of 30% to 70% on the excess, depending on user type.
Users who cut consumption by more than 10% can receive a bill credit funded by those surcharges. Hospitals, schools and prepaid-meter customers are exempt.
What happened in 1992
Colombia’s last nationwide rationing began on 2 March 1992, under President César Gaviria, after El Niño drained the reservoirs. Delays at the Guavio hydroelectric project and a heavily indebted power sector made it worse, according to La República.
Power was cut for hours each day, up to nine hours in Bogotá and ten on the Caribbean coast, Radio Nacional recalls. On 2 May 1992 the government moved clocks forward one hour to make more use of daylight.
The change, proposed by then commerce minister Juan Manuel Santos, became known as “la hora Gaviria”. Clocks went back in early 1993, and the rationing ended that February.
The shortfall totalled 2,400 gigawatt-hours over 343 days, by Lumen’s count. The crisis led in 1994 to the creation of CREG and UPME and opened generation to private investment.
What comes next
Lumen recommends securing gas and liquid fuel for thermal plants, and managing demand with savings incentives and peak-hour campaigns. It also calls for stable rules and faster licences for power lines.
Whether a Colombia power rationing is needed will depend on rain, thermal supply and how much households save. The government says it is working to avoid one.
More: Colombia coverage, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who estimated the cost of a 1992-style rationing?
Lumen Economic Intelligence, a Bogotá consultancy led by former Fedesarrollo executive director Luis Fernando Mejía. He presented the study at the annual congress of Acolgen, the electricity generators’ association. The severe scenario costs 30.7 trillion pesos (about US$9.6 billion), with milder scenarios costing 1.2 trillion pesos (about US$380 million) and 8 trillion pesos (about US$2.5 billion).
Is the 30.7 trillion pesos a loss of GDP?
Not exactly. About 25 trillion pesos (about US$7.8 billion) is lost production, equal to 1.3% of GDP, and the rest is lost household welfare. The total equals 1.6% of GDP, according to Lumen.
Is Colombia power rationing expected?
No authority has announced rationing. XM reported reservoirs near 79% in mid-September, but inflows are well below normal, and NOAA gives more than a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño. The government says it is working to avoid cuts, and the regulator CREG has launched a savings scheme.
What was la hora Gaviria?
During the 1992 rationing, President César Gaviria’s government moved clocks forward one hour on 2 May 1992 to make more use of daylight. The idea came from then commerce minister Juan Manuel Santos. Clocks went back in early 1993, when the rationing ended.
Sources: Infobae on the Lumen scenarios, Valora Analitik on the three scenarios, La República on the method and GDP share, El Colombiano on the cost breakdown, La República on XM reservoir data, ABC Economía on the XM year-end projection, Infobae on the Acolgen deficit warning, El Heraldo on the government response, El Colombiano on the CREG savings scheme, NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO discussion, Portafolio on the IDEAM alert, La República on the 1992 blackout, Radio Nacional on la hora Gaviria, Official TRM exchange rate series
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