The Big Three
Ecopetrol’s board met for seven hours on Monday and failed to reach a decision on Ricardo Roa. El Tiempo reported the board instead agreed to request a closed-door meeting with President Petro before resolving the matter — but two independent members rejected the invitation, calling it a politicization of corporate governance.
The COLCAP dropped −0.80% to 2,194.95, its fourth consecutive losing session and its lowest close since early March. The governance paralysis at Colombia’s most important company continues to weigh on investor confidence across the index.
The Colombian peso strengthened further, with the TRM falling to COP 3,668.89 — down COP 36 in a week and COP 97 in March. WTI crude surged 3.25% to $102.88, its highest close since July 2022, but the peso continues to defy oil-driven pressure thanks to the BanRep carry trade.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| COLCAP Close | 2,194.95 | −0.80% |
| COLCAP ATH (Jan 27) | 2,562.00 | −14.33% |
| USD/COP TRM (Mar 30) | 3,668.89 | −0.17% |
| March TRM Move | — | −COP 97 (−2.58%) |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | +100 bps (Jan 30) |
| WTI Crude | $102.88 | +3.25% (Jul 2022 high) |
| S&P 500 | 6,343.72 | −0.39% |
| VIX | >30 | fear gauge elevated |
02 Equities
The Colombia stock market COLCAP today fell −0.80% to 2,194.95, its fourth consecutive losing session and its lowest close since early March. The index opened at 2,213.92 and briefly tested 2,229 before selling pressure dragged it to a session low of 2,187.19. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
The Ecopetrol governance crisis deepened. El Tiempo reported that Monday’s seven-hour board session ended without a resolution on CEO Ricardo Roa’s future. Instead, the board proposed a private meeting with President Petro — a move that independent members Ricardo Rodríguez Yee and Luis Felipe Henao rejected, arguing it would subordinate corporate governance to political instructions. Four of nine board members have now filed formal constancias requesting Roa’s departure.
Petro fired back on social media, accusing “uribista groups” of trying to seize control of Ecopetrol’s COP 25 trillion contract portfolio. The USO warned a production-halting strike remains on the table if Roa is not removed. BTG Pactual upgraded the situation from a reputational risk to a material governance risk that could impact the stock’s performance.
03 Currency
The TRM fell to COP 3,668.89 — down COP 6.40 from Friday and COP 97 in March (−2.58%). The spot opened at COP 3,659 and averaged around 3,670 per El Nuevo Siglo. Global66’s Lama told Noticias Caracol that a peace deal could push the peso to COP 3,600–3,630, while a conflict escalation would drive it above COP 3,800.
Fed Chair Powell, speaking at Harvard, said rates are “in a good place” and warned that hiking to fight oil-driven inflation could cause economic damage. The dovish signal supports EM carry trades, explaining why the Colombian peso keeps strengthening despite elevated oil prices and global risk aversion.
04 Technical Analysis — MSCI COLCAP Daily
The index opened at 2,213.92, tested 2,229.13 intraday, then fell steadily to 2,187.19 before closing at 2,194.95. The candle is a bearish continuation with a close near the session low, confirming selling pressure remains dominant.
The MACD histogram at 5.67 is barely positive and fading fast — likely to turn negative within one or two sessions. RSI at 44.62/43.22 continues its drift below 50. The 200-day SMA has risen to approximately 2,002, still providing structural support well below. The key support level is 2,127; a break would target the 2,000 psychological floor.
05 Key Levels
| Level | COLCAP |
| Resistance 3 | 2,257.76 |
| Resistance 2 | 2,226.79 |
| Resistance 1 | 2,216.26 |
| Current Close | 2,194.95 |
| Support 1 | 2,127.51 |
| Support 2 | 2,001.69 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street was mixed Monday — S&P 500 −0.39% to 6,343.72 (third straight loss, now 9% off highs), Nasdaq −0.73%, Dow +0.11%. The VIX topped 30 intraday. WTI surged 3.25% to $102.88 — its highest settlement since July 2022. Fed Chair Powell said at Harvard that rates are “in a good place” and warned against hiking to fight energy-driven inflation.
07 Looking Ahead
The Ecopetrol board-Petro meeting is now the key event. If Petro instructs retention of Roa, independent members may escalate and the USO strike becomes highly likely. If a negotiated exit emerges, Ecopetrol could rally sharply and lift the entire COLCAP. The market is pricing in indefinite uncertainty — the worst of all outcomes.
April 6 is the Iran deadline. Tuesday overnight, the Wall Street Journal reported Trump told aides he was willing to end hostilities even if Hormuz stays shut — a potential game-changer for oil and EM risk sentiment. Oil fell in Asian trading on the report.
08 Verdict
The COLCAP’s fourth straight decline and the Ecopetrol board’s inability to resolve the Roa crisis after three meetings signal a market drifting without a catalyst. The politicization of governance — now escalated to a presidential meeting — adds a layer of uncertainty that keeps institutional investors sidelined. RSI below 45 and the fading MACD confirm the bearish posture.
Bias: Bearish. The peso’s strength is the only constructive signal, driven by carry rather than confidence. The COLCAP needs either a Roa resolution or a geopolitical de-escalation to reverse course. The 2,127 support is the next major test — a breach opens the door to 2,000.