Colombia’s COLCAP Up 4% on BanRep Hike, Petro Clash

01 Market Snapshot

02 Equities

COLCAP Colombia today surged +4.17% to 2,286.41, its strongest single-session advance in months, as a global risk-on rally powered by Iran de-escalation hopes overwhelmed domestic institutional drama. The S&P 500 gained 2.91%, the Dow jumped 1,125 points (+2.49%), and the Nasdaq surged 3.83% — all posting their best sessions since May. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Colombia stock market COLCAP today and Latin American financial markets.

The catalyst was a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump told aides he was willing to end military operations in Iran even without the Strait of Hormuz fully reopening, followed by unconfirmed reports that Iranian President Pezeshkian was open to ending the conflict with security guarantees. Brent crude May futures settled at $118.35 (+4.94%), capping a record 60% monthly gain — the biggest since 1988 — while the more actively traded June contract fell 3.2%, suggesting the market is pricing in de-escalation.

03 BanRep Rate Decision & Government Walkout

BanRep’s board voted by majority to raise the benchmark rate by 100 basis points to 11.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a full-percentage-point increase. Four directors supported the hike, two voted for a 50 bps cut, and one preferred to hold unchanged. The decision aligned with the consensus forecast from Goldman Sachs and Bancolombia’s research team.

The communiqué noted headline inflation registered 5.4% in January and 5.3% in February — both above the 5.1% year-end 2025 reading. Core inflation excluding food and regulated items rose to 5.5% in February, up from 5.0% in December. Analyst expectations for end-2026 inflation edged down marginally from 6.4% to 6.3% between the January and March surveys, while market-implied expectations remained near 7.0% — well above BanRep’s 3% target. The board acknowledged the Iran conflict creates mixed effects: higher oil prices improve terms of trade but raise costs for imported gas and fertilizers.

In an extraordinary turn, Finance Minister Germán Ávila walked out of the board meeting before it concluded, convened a separate press conference, and declared the government was establishing “significant distance” from the central bank. President Petro escalated on social media, writing that the board majority “continues in its attitude of killing the Colombian economy.” He accused the BanRep majority of being politically aligned with the opposition and acting to benefit bondholders at the expense of ordinary Colombians.

BanRep Governor Leonardo Villar noted that the Constitution requires the Finance Minister to attend board meetings and preside over them — meaning Ávila’s indefinite withdrawal could constitute a legal violation. Former Finance Minister Mauricio Cárdenas warned Ávila could become the first finance minister in Colombian history removed for dereliction of duty. The Consejo Gremial defended BanRep’s autonomy, while AmCham Colombia called the government’s stance “political pressure” that sends a damaging signal to investors. Under BanRep statutes, the board requires a quorum of five members including the Finance Minister — if the government follows through, it could paralyze monetary policy-making.

04 Ecopetrol: Roa Saga

Ecopetrol’s board met for a third time on Monday, March 30, to decide the fate of President Ricardo Roa — and once again failed to reach consensus after a seven-hour session. The board reportedly split 5–4 in favor of keeping Roa, with the deciding faction agreeing to first consult President Petro. A meeting with the president has been scheduled for April 6.

Roa faces an April 8 court appearance related to alleged campaign finance violations in the Petro 2022 presidential campaign. The Fiscalía alleges spending exceeded legal limits by more than COP 5.3 billion. President Petro publicly defended Roa, claiming the push to remove him is linked to upcoming oil and gas contracts worth COP 20 trillion. The USO labor union continues to demand Roa’s departure. As analyzed in our recent coverage of the Ecopetrol board saga, a resolution would likely serve as a meaningful catalyst for the stock and the broader index.

05 Currency & Monetary Policy

The peso showed modest weakness, with the TRM at COP 3,669.96 — up just COP 1.07 from the prior day. The dollar climbed COP 25 from the opening price to close near COP 3,675 in the Bogotá cash market. For the month, the peso has been range-bound between COP 3,650 and COP 3,710, reflecting a tug of war between high oil prices and the aggressive rate cycle (peso-positive) versus global risk aversion and institutional uncertainty (peso-negative).

The rate hike to 11.25% — with markets now pricing further tightening toward 12.75% by mid-year per Bancolombia’s estimates — reinforces the peso carry trade. However, the government’s withdrawal from the BanRep board introduces a governance risk premium that could weigh on the currency if the situation escalates.

06 Technical Analysis — COLCAP Daily

Monday’s session produced a powerful bullish candle, opening near the low at 2,195.92 and closing at the session high of 2,286.41 — a textbook marubozu signaling strong buying conviction. The +4.17% move reclaimed territory above the 2,257 zone where the Ichimoku cloud and several moving average crossovers converge.

The MACD reads 10.03 / −14.61 / −24.64. The histogram remains negative but the sharp narrowing between the MACD and signal lines suggests a potential bullish crossover in coming sessions. RSI stands at 54.86 on the weekly and 45.10 on the daily — both neutral, meaning the index has room to extend before entering overbought territory. The Bollinger Bands had been contracting through late March; Monday’s surge represents a volatility expansion to the upside, which typically favors continuation.

07 Key Levels

08 Global Context

Wall Street surged on Iran peace hopes — Dow +2.49% (+1,125 pts to 46,341), S&P 500 +2.91% (6,528), Nasdaq +3.83% — all posting their best day since May. The moves came after Trump told aides he was willing to end military hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, plus unconfirmed reports Iran’s president was open to ending the war with guarantees.

Brent May futures settled at $118.35 — highest close since June 2022 — capping a record +60% monthly gain. WTI fell $1.50 to $101.38. The May-June Brent spread inversion suggests de-escalation premium decay. The S&P 500 still closed March down 5.1% — worst month since last March — and Q1 down 7.33%, the worst since June 2022.

09 Looking Ahead

The BanRep–Petro rupture is now the defining risk for Colombian assets. The key question is whether Finance Minister Ávila returns to the April 30 board meeting — or whether the impasse persists, potentially prompting legal challenges and paralyzing monetary policy. Business federations and former officials have already signaled opposition to the walkout.

The Ecopetrol calendar is compressed: Petro meets the board April 6, Roa faces court April 8. A single vote change on the 5–4 split determines the outcome. Meanwhile, the FOMC meets April 28–29, where oil-driven inflation complicates the Fed’s rate path — Goldman has pushed its first-cut call to September. As analyzed in the latest Latin American Pulse, Colombia’s monetary policy trajectory is now among the most hawkish in the region.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

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