Rio Times — B3/Ibovespa Daily Report · Covering March 31 Session · Published April 1, 2026
02 Cross-Asset Snapshot
6,528.52 +2.91%
46,341.51 +2.49%
21,590.63 +3.83%
$103.87 −3.2%
R$ 5.1781 −1.65%
$107.72 −4.1%
Falling Compressed
14.75% / 3.50–3.75%
Top Gainers
Top Losers
03 Technical Analysis
The Ibovespa gapped up from Monday’s close of 182,515 and never looked back, printing a convincing bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. The close at 187,462 sits above the Ichimoku cloud’s Senkou Span A at 181,273 and reclaims the Tenkan-sen (182,769) and Kijun-sen (182,291) — both of which had acted as resistance during the late-March correction. Price is now testing the upper Bollinger Band at 186,877, suggesting a possible short-term overextension, though the band itself is expanding, indicating rising volatility rather than a ceiling.
The MACD histogram is marginally positive at 418.81, with the signal line at 391.09, confirming a fresh bullish crossover. The RSI has recovered to 58.64 from oversold territory reached earlier in March, with the slow line at 48.42 still playing catch-up — a configuration that typically supports continued upside before overbought conditions emerge.
The USD/BRL daily chart tells the complementary story. The pair dropped 1.65% to 5.1781, falling through the Kijun-sen at 5.2325 and testing the 200-day SMA cluster around 5.23. The pair sits within a descending Ichimoku cloud, confirming the medium-term bearish dollar/bullish real trend. RSI at 50.85 is neutral, while MACD is near zero, suggesting the real’s direction will depend heavily on whether Iran peace talks progress or stall in coming days.
192,624 (52-week high / Feb all-time high)
188,099 (Ichimoku cloud top / recent congestion)
186,877 (Upper Bollinger Band)
187,462 (Close)
183,831 (Bollinger midline / 20-SMA)
182,291 (Kijun-sen / Monday’s close)
178,099 (Senkou Span B / cloud base)
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.30%
175,664.62
+0.30%
65,484.32
-0.53%
11,445.90
-0.22%
2,979,472
-0.72%
2,457.87
-1.28%
60,779.49
-1.40%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 175,664.62 | +0.30% | +21.85% | 175,135.41 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
04 Forward Look
Trump has set April 6 as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Defense Secretary Hegseth stated the U.S. plans to leave Iran in “two to three weeks.” However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi pushed back, stating Tehran seeks a full end to the war, not just a ceasefire — including guarantees and compensation. The gap between rhetoric and reality remains wide. Any collapse in talks could instantly reverse Tuesday’s rally.
ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP private payrolls release Wednesday (April 1). The March nonfarm payrolls report hits Friday (April 3) — Good Friday — when U.S. cash markets are closed. These reports will determine whether the oil shock has begun compressing growth and hiring, or remains isolated to prices. ISM Prices Paid above 73 would signal the worst input cost environment since 2022.
Petrobras will raise jet fuel (QAV) prices by approximately 55% starting April 1, compounding pressure on airlines already reeling from elevated crude. Meanwhile, André de Paula (PSD-PE) takes over the Agriculture Ministry from Carlos Fávaro, who leaves to run for Senate in Mato Grosso. The transition comes at a sensitive time for agribusiness policy amid soaring fertilizer and fuel costs.
The Focus survey revised 2026 IPCA to 4.31% (from 4.17%), and major banks have now lifted their forecasts to 4.5% — approaching the upper bound of the target range. Itaú BBA raised its terminal Selic forecast to 13.00% (from 12.25%), reflecting the persistent inflationary impulse from the oil shock. The BCB’s ability to continue its cautious easing cycle now hinges on whether peace materializes or the Hormuz disruption persists.
05 Verdict
Key Facts
— Tuesday’s session was the Ibovespa’s strongest performance in weeks, but it was driven almost entirely by a single variable: the probability that the Iran war ends soon. The breadth — only four losers across the entire index — tells you this was a binary geopolitical trade, not a fundamentals-driven advance. When one headline can move the index 2.71% in either direction, position sizing matters more than conviction.
— The domestic backdrop is deteriorating quietly behind the geopolitical noise. Job creation missed consensus, gross debt keeps climbing, and inflation expectations are drifting toward the ceiling of the target range. The BCB is boxed in: the oil shock demands caution on rates, but the economy needs relief from 14.75% Selic. Petrobras’ 55% jet fuel hike starting tomorrow is a tangible reminder that oil-shock inflation is not just a forecast — it is arriving in real prices.
— The technical setup favors cautious optimism. The Ibovespa reclaimed both Ichimoku equilibrium lines and sits above the cloud, with MACD freshly bullish. But the close is pressing the upper Bollinger Band, and the rally needs follow-through to avoid becoming a one-day wonder. The April 6 Hormuz deadline is the make-or-break catalyst. A deal opens the path back toward February’s record highs above 192,000. A breakdown in talks could send the index tumbling back to the 175,000–178,000 support zone faster than most portfolios can adjust.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
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