COLCAP Hits One-Month High at 2,301 as Court Strikes Down Petro Emergency

01 Market Snapshot

02 Equities — 2,300 Falls, But Can It Hold?

The COLCAP Colombia today enters Monday at its strongest level in over a month. Friday’s 0.33% gain extended the post-court-ruling rally that has defined the past week of trading, with the index closing at 2,301.78 — back above the 2,300 level that had rejected every advance since late March. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia’s stock market and Latin American financial markets. For context, see our previous report: COLCAP Cheers Constitutional Ruling Despite COP 12T Fiscal Gap.

Friday’s session was more dramatic than the +0.33% close suggests. The index opened at 2,294, dipped to 2,282 in morning trade, then staged a sharp rally to 2,323 — punching through 2,300 and approaching the 2,332 resistance zone. But sellers emerged above 2,320, and the index faded through the afternoon to close at 2,302. The resulting candle — long upper wick, close near the midpoint — suggests the breakout is tentative rather than decisive. Monday’s opening trade will reveal whether Friday’s move was a genuine breakout or a liquidity-driven headfake ahead of the weekend.

The session’s biggest gainer was Grupo Energía Bogotá (GEB), which surged 3.81% to COP 3,130. GEB benefits from regulatory stability and steady dividend flow — precisely the attributes investors favor in uncertain political environments. Grupo Argos added 1.13% to COP 16,180 and its preferred shares rose 1.11%. On the losing side, Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC) fell 2.54% to COP 16,100, extending a pattern of exchange-operator underperformance in momentum-driven sessions.

03 The Court Ruling — Markets Price Institutional Integrity

The Constitutional Court’s April 9 decision to permanently strike down Petro’s economic emergency decree (Legislative Decree 1390 of 2025) remains the dominant catalyst. The ruling declared the decree unconstitutional, blocking the government from collecting approximately COP 12 trillion (~US$3.1 billion) through emergency fiscal measures — liquor duties, financial sector surcharges, and revised wealth assessments. Combined with the Senate’s earlier rejection of the financing law, the cumulative fiscal gap now stands at approximately COP 16 trillion.

The paradox — markets rallying on news that widens the fiscal deficit — has a clear explanation. The COLCAP is not trading on this year’s budget arithmetic; it is trading on the election 48 days away. The Court ruling demonstrates that Colombia’s institutional checks function, that Petro cannot govern by decree, and that the next president will inherit a constrained but constitutional fiscal framework. For investors positioning for a center-right outcome, this is exactly the institutional backdrop they want.

Petro’s response has been combative. On April 10, he warned of multibillion-dollar spending cuts if Congress fails to approve a new tax reform bill. The healthcare sector faces an operational deficit of COP 4.8 trillion (~US$1.2 billion). The Ministry of Finance must immediately halt collection of taxes created under the voided emergency decree. On April 7, Petro had threatened a new economic emergency — a path the Court ruling has made far more legally and politically treacherous.

04 The BanRep Standoff — The Risk Nobody Can Price

The institutional confrontation between the government and Banco de la República remains the single largest structural risk for Colombian markets. The policy rate stands at 11.25% after the March 31 decision — three consecutive 100bp hikes in 2026, taking the benchmark from 9.25% at year-end 2025. Finance Minister Germán Ávila walked out of the March 31 meeting after four board members voted for the hike, publicly declaring the rate increase would have “a sustained and significant impact on the country’s economic dynamics.” Petro backed him, calling the policy “suicidal.”

The legal mechanics are what make this crisis existential rather than theatrical. Under Colombian law, at least five of seven board members — including the finance minister — must be present for the board to meet. If Ávila boycotts the next meeting (scheduled late April), BanRep cannot legally set monetary policy. Central Bank president Leonardo Villar has warned that the minister’s absence constitutes a neglect of legal obligations. XP Investments’ Andrés Pardo notes Colombia is already struggling with a large fiscal deficit, a widening current account deficit, and unanchored inflation expectations — “exactly the conditions where central bank credibility matters most.”

Inflation expectations have jumped to 6.4% for end-2026 among analysts. Headline CPI in January and February stood at 5.4% and 5.3%, both above the 5.1% recorded at end-2025 and well above the 3% target. The 23.7% minimum wage increase continues to feed through into services prices. Analysts project the rate could reach 12% by year-end if price pressures persist.

05 Technical Analysis — COLCAP Daily

The chart shows the COLCAP breaking above the Ichimoku cloud for the first time since the late-March selloff. The cloud is thin at the 2,300 level, which makes both a breakout and a false-break equally plausible. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are converging near 2,270–2,300, building energy for a directional move. The 200-day moving average slopes upward near 2,024 — well below current price — confirming the long-term uptrend remains intact.

Price closed near the upper Bollinger Band at approximately 2,302.50, with the middle band at 2,254 and the lower band at 2,183. The bands are beginning to expand after a period of contraction — a textbook setup for a volatility expansion and trending move. The breakout direction will be determined by the political and monetary catalysts ahead.

The MACD histogram shows green bars at 12.35, with the MACD line at 7.29 crossing above the signal at −5.06. This zero-line crossover is a bullish development, though momentum remains modest. The RSI reads 56.25 on the fast line and 50.94 on the slow — neutral with a slight bullish tilt. Critically, the RSI is not overbought, leaving room for further upside if the 2,300 breakout holds.

06 Key Levels

07 News in Focus

Oil at $95: The Paradox Deepens

Brent crude closed at $95.20 on Friday after touching $98.26 intraday — posting its largest weekly decline in nine months despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed. A fragile US-Iran ceasefire drove the pullback from the $119.50 peak, but the physical oil market tells a different story: dated Brent in the spot market traded above $131 on Thursday. Saudi Arabia disclosed that attacks reduced its production capacity by roughly 600,000 bpd and cut East-West Pipeline throughput by approximately 700,000 bpd. The upcoming US-Iran talks in Pakistan and Israel-Lebanon negotiations represent binary catalysts for oil — a genuine Hormuz reopening could send Brent back toward $80, which would be peso-positive but COLCAP-negative via Ecopetrol. A breakdown sends Brent back toward $110+.

The Peso Holds Firm Despite Everything

The Colombian peso traded near COP 3,636–3,645 per dollar last week, close to its strongest levels of 2026. The currency has appreciated approximately 15% against the dollar over the past year, powered by carry-trade flows at 11.25% and a weakening DXY below 97. The peso’s strength amid institutional turmoil is remarkable — but the February 27 session, when a single poll showing Cepeda at 37.1% sparked a 3.88% collapse, demonstrated the currency’s vulnerability to political shocks. The COP 3,636–3,686 range has held; a break below 3,636 would mark the strongest levels since early 2024.

Election: Cepeda 35%, Valencia Rising, 48 Days

The May 31 first-round presidential election remains the ultimate catalyst. The three-way race features left-wing Iván Cepeda (~35%), right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella (~21%), and center-right Paloma Valencia (rising). Clara López has withdrawn to support Cepeda, consolidating left-wing votes. The 14-candidate ballot was finalized on March 25. No candidate is likely to clear 50%+1 in the first round, making the June 21 runoff dynamics critical. Early polling shows both Valencia and De la Espriella defeating Cepeda in head-to-head scenarios — the market’s preferred narrative. As covered in last week’s downgrade risk report, a center-right victory could trigger a 30–40% COLCAP re-rating.

Protests: 527 Municipalities, Airport Blocked

Colombia experienced widespread disruption on April 9 with simultaneous protests by rural communities and taxi drivers. Farmers in at least 527 municipalities mobilized against sharp increases in rural land valuations under a 2025 government resolution — property tax rises of up to 300% in some cases. Taxi drivers in Bogotá partially blocked access to El Dorado International Airport, forcing travelers to walk to terminals. The protests underscore the social tensions underlying Petro’s fiscal dilemma: the government needs revenue but faces resistance from Congress, the courts, and the streets simultaneously.

Santa Marta: Petro’s Climate Legacy in 15 Days

The First Global Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands in Santa Marta on April 28–29, is approaching. Over 220 economists and policymakers have signed a coalition letter urging challenges to investor-state dispute settlement mechanisms that protect fossil fuel investments. For Ecopetrol and the energy sector, the conference reinforces the government’s ideological opposition to the industry’s core business at a time when $95 oil makes that business exceptionally profitable. The contradiction — a country positioned to benefit from high oil prices while actively discouraging the investment needed to maintain production — will be inherited by the next president as the central policy challenge. As we covered in our central bank crisis report, the standoff between Petro’s ideological agenda and market reality is reaching a breaking point.

08 Looking Ahead

Monday open: Can the COLCAP hold above 2,300? The first hour of trading will reveal whether Friday’s breakout was genuine or a pre-weekend headfake. Petro’s spending-cut warnings and the oil settlement at $95.20 are the weekend inputs to digest.

BanRep: Any signal from Finance Minister Ávila on attending the next board meeting will move both equities and the peso. The boycott is the single biggest institutional risk — if Ávila attends, markets rally on normalization; if he boycotts, the legal crisis deepens and sovereign risk re-prices.

Oil & Hormuz: US-Iran talks over the weekend are the binary catalyst. A breakdown sends Brent toward $110; progress toward reopening Hormuz would crash oil, strengthen the peso, and weigh on Ecopetrol-heavy COLCAP.

Election polling: Watch for Invamer or GAD3 releases this week. Any survey showing Valencia closing the gap with Cepeda is bullish for the COLCAP. A Cepeda surge above 38% would trigger another selloff.

This report was published by The Rio Times. For daily coverage of Latin American markets, read our Latin American Pulse and Brazil Morning Call.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

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