Chile’s Presidential Race: Economists Back Carolina Tohá as Markets Eye Rightward Shift

A group of Chile’s most prominent economists has thrown its support behind center-left presidential candidate Carolina Tohá, according to statements from her campaign on April 20, 2025.

The endorsement comes as Tohá trails far behind her right-leaning rivals in the polls, with the business community and investors closely watching the country’s economic direction.

The 2025 presidential election, set for November 16, will decide not only the next president but also the composition of Chile’s legislature. Incumbent President Gabriel Boric cannot run again.

Tohá’s Presidential Bid Faces Uphill Battle

The political climate has shifted since Boric’s 2021 victory, with his approval ratings falling sharply amid economic stagnation, legislative gridlock, and growing public safety concerns. Right-wing opposition parties, led by Evelyn Matthei and José Antonio Kast, now dominate the polls.

Tohá, a former interior minister, has secured the backing of key figures such as Andrés Velasco, Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Pablo García, and Roberto Zahler. These economists, all former central bank officials or finance ministers, bring significant credibility.

They have publicly committed to supporting policies that promote economic modernization, job creation, and productivity, while also emphasizing social protection. Despite this high-profile support, Tohá’s campaign faces serious headwinds.

Polls show her with about 2% of voting intentions, while Matthei leads by more than 10 points over her closest right-wing rivals. The perception of deteriorating public security and recent scandals involving former officials in Tohá’s circle have further complicated her prospects.

Chile’s economic outlook remains uncertain. GDP growth rebounded to 2.2% in 2024 after a weak 2023, but forecasts suggest only 2.0% growth in 2025.

The Chilean peso is expected to remain under pressure, with some analysts projecting it could weaken to 1,100 per US dollar by year-end. Fiscal deficits persist, with the government unlikely to meet its 2024 target of -2.0% of GDP, despite spending cuts.

Global economic headwinds, including weaker demand from China and a stronger US dollar, add to the challenges facing any incoming administration.

Investors and businesses are watching to see if Chile will maintain market-friendly policies or shift toward more interventionist approaches. The outcome of the election will likely determine whether Chile can reverse its recent economic slowdown or face continued stagnation.

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