Chile Markets Split: Strong Peso, Tired Stocks, And A Crowded Carry Trade

Key Points

• USD/CLP is near 888.75 this morning, with Chile’s “dólar observado” at 888.66.
• The dollar index is softer around 98.715, even as tariff headlines keep risk appetite fragile.
• Offshore positioning remains heavy, with a net short against CLP near $9.6 billion.

Chile’s peso is starting January 20 steady to slightly firmer, with USD/CLP near 888.75 after trading around the 888 handle overnight.

The move follows a thin Monday session, when U.S. markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and liquidity left prices more sensitive to headlines.

What stood out was the cross-asset mix. Stocks took the hit, yet the dollar did not surge. The dollar index edged lower, while safe-haven demand showed up in precious metals.

Copper also stayed supported, trading near $5.89 per pound in London. That combination helped keep the peso from buckling, even with global risk nerves.

Market commentary put politics front and center. Capitaria strategist Diego Montalbetti linked the shift to revived tariff uncertainty and rising risk aversion.

AJ Bell’s Dan Coatsworth described tariff rhetoric as another shock that adds stress and forces investors to reprice scenarios quickly. In this kind of tape, disciplined policy signals tend to matter more than slogans.

Chile’s domestic backdrop still offers a cushion. The policy rate is 4.5%, and annual inflation is shown at 3.5%, keeping a meaningful carry differential in place.

At the same time, crowded positioning raises the stakes. Offshore traders remain heavily set up, with a net short against the peso near $9.6 billion, close to the $10 billion line.

Technicals argue for caution, not complacency. On the 4-hour chart, RSI is near 42 and MACD momentum has improved, which can trigger sharp squeezes.

Resistance sits near 889–892, then 898–904. Support is 886, then 884–883, then 877. The daily chart still looks heavy, with RSI near 37, while the weekly RSI in the high-20s signals exhaustion risk if 879–880 breaks.

Chile’s IPSA is showing strength, but it looks tired. The index is around 11,143, slightly lower on Monday, with laggards including Entel, SMU, and Vapores.

Banco Santander Chile also weighed, given its index influence. Momentum remains elevated, with daily RSI above 70, while key support sits near 11,070–11,060 and then 10,884. Resistance remains near 11,150–11,160.

The international investor gauge, iShares MSCI Chile (ECH), last traded around $44.09, with roughly 980,000 shares in daily volume versus about 646,000 on a 30-day average.

The fund holds about $1.195 billion in assets, and recent net inflows were about $39.81 million over five days and $55.86 million over one month.

Top Winners: Chilean peso resilience, copper, gold, silver, ECH inflow momentum.

Top Losers: Entel, SMU, Vapores, Banco Santander Chile, broader global equities.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chilean markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Colombia’s COLCAP closed the same session.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Chile’s Economy Ministry Pick Signals A Pro-Investment Push,