Cameroon Bets $3.1 Billion on Iron Ore to Outrun Oil Decline

Africa · Central

Cameroon pivots from oil to mining in its most ambitious economic restructuring in decades, betting $3.1 billion on iron ore, bauxite and gold to replace dwindling hydrocarbon revenues and reposition the country as a Central African mining producer.

A historic turning point for an oil-dependent economy

For decades, Cameroon’s extractive sector meant one thing: oil and gas, which still account for roughly half of total exports but have shrunk to less than 10% of budget revenue as fields mature and investment contracts. The country’s most recent EITI committee report confirms that extractives contributed 4.9% of GDP and 11.9% of government revenues in 2024, yet mining remained below 1% of GDP despite Cameroon being, in the words of its own Mines Ministry, “largely under-exploited.”

That imbalance is now being deliberately unwound. Mines Minister Prof. Fuh Calistus Gentry declared 2025 “a historic turning point, with Cameroon officially joining the ranks of mining-producing nations,” citing the commissioning of five major industrial operations spanning iron ore, bauxite, marble and gold.

The $3.1 billion iron ore bet that anchors the pivot

At the heart of the strategy sit three iron ore projects—Kribi-Lobé, Mbalam and Bipindi-Grand Zambi—into which Cameroon plans to channel 1,748 billion CFA francs ($3.1 billion) between 2026 and 2030. Mining permits have been issued, operations are scheduled to start this year, and the government’s own finance-law annex describes these deposits as forming “most of the new mining cycle.”

The regional central bank BEAC, which oversees the six-nation CEMAC bloc, identifies these same iron ore projects—alongside two in neighbouring Gabon—as key drivers of regional growth, forecasting an average 3.7% expansion by 2027 powered by mining. The iron ore strategy is explicitly linked to global steel demand in Asia and the price cycles driven by China’s property and infrastructure sectors, making Cameroon’s fiscal future partly dependent on construction trends half a world away.

Beyond iron: bauxite, gold and the critical minerals card

The diversification push is deliberately multi-mineral. The Minim-Martap Industrial Bauxite Project in the Adamawa Region sits alongside Nkamouna (cobalt-nickel) and Mbalam-Nabeba (iron ore) as one of three flagship projects identified by international legal advisors as central to Cameroon’s economic prospects under the new mining code.

Gold is receiving particular regulatory attention: under the state-owned National Mining Corporation SONAMINES’ exclusive purchasing mandate, officially collected gold surged to 640 kg in 2024, up from 170.9 kg a year earlier, a jump attributed to formalisation and a crackdown on illegal mining rather than an overnight production increase. The Mines Ministry and US Commerce Department both note significant reserves of cobalt, nickel, rutile and gold, with about 500 untapped mining sites identified in a World Bank-supported survey—positioning Cameroon squarely inside the global race for critical minerals that defines the era covered by Africa: The New Scramble.

A new mining code that rewrites the rules for foreign capital

The legal architecture underpinning this pivot is the revised mining code adopted in December 2023, which markedly increases the state’s capacity to capture value. It mandates at least 10% state equity in all small-scale and industrial mining companies, imposes production-sharing of 1% to 5% for precious substances and 2% to 15% for other minerals, and creates three dedicated funds covering sector development, environmental rehabilitation and local capacity building.

The local capacity-building account, funded by 0.5% to 1% of mining companies’ turnover, is earmarked for economic, social and technological development in mining regions—a mechanism designed to mitigate the resource-curse dynamics that have bedevilled other African petro-states. Pinsent Masons, which tracks mining investor interest across the continent, characterises the new code as “set to significantly transform the mining industry” by providing clearer rules for foreign investors while giving the state stronger oversight powers.

Oil is not disappearing—it is being repositioned

Cameroon is not abandoning hydrocarbons; it is rebalancing them. Fiscal projections show royalties and corporate taxes from oil and gas falling to about 563 billion CFA francs in 2026, driven by maturing fields and a 29% contraction in capital expenditure in 2023, prompting a 2025–26 licensing round covering nine blocks in the Rio del Rey and Douala/Kribi-Campo basins.

Bids are accepted through March 30, 2026, with the explicit objective of bridging a projected 12.2% decline in oil revenues and setting up gas-heavy development linked to the new CFA 350 billion CSTAR refinery in Kribi. Oil is being repositioned as a supporting sector—particularly gas for power to reduce the electricity shortages that constrain manufacturing—while mining is groomed to become the main export and revenue engine.

What investors and geopolitics watchers should track next

For the internationally-minded reader, Cameroon’s pivot is a test case of a petro-dependent African state seeking to re-anchor its economy in mining just as global energy systems shift and great-power competition over critical minerals intensifies. The presence of diverse foreign investors—Chinese, Australian and European firms are all active across the region—positions Cameroon as a site of emerging strategic competition over iron ore, bauxite and cobalt-nickel supplies.

Execution risk remains the central question: can Cameroon mobilise the $3.1 billion required and deliver the rail, port and power infrastructure on time? The IMF sees medium-term GDP growth reaching 4.6% by 2031 if the mining diversification succeeds, but infrastructure deficits and governance quality will determine whether the new code’s funds translate into transparent, equitable benefits or become channels for elite capture.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Cameroon pivoting from oil to mining now?

Cameroon’s oil fields are maturing and investment is declining, with hydrocarbons now contributing less than 10% of budget revenue despite still representing roughly half of exports. The government sees mining—particularly iron ore, bauxite and gold—as the most viable path to replace dwindling oil income and achieve its Vision 2035 goal of emerging-economy status, a strategy explicitly backed by the IMF and World Bank.

How much revenue does Cameroon expect from mining?

Mines Minister Prof. Fuh Calistus Gentry has stated that Cameroon expects annual mining revenue to exceed 1 trillion CFA francs ($1.75 billion) in the short term, overtaking oil, and to double to about 2 trillion CFA francs in the longer term. At present, mining contributes less than 1% of GDP, but at least 15 strategic projects are near production and scheduled to begin producing ores from 2025 onwards.

What does Cameroon’s new mining code mean for foreign investors?

The 2023 mining code mandates at least 10% state equity in all mining ventures, imposes production-sharing of up to 15% of output depending on the mineral, and creates three dedicated funds for sector development, environmental rehabilitation and local capacity building. While this increases the state’s take, legal analysts say the code provides clearer rules and greater legal certainty for foreign investors compared with the previous framework.

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