Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 25, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are riding a wave of optimism driven by surging consumer confidence, a historic boost to onshore oil and gas production, and a significant political victory against lawmaker immunity.
The Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) reported consumer confidence at its highest level since December 2024, reaching 90.3 points in September, up from 87.8, signaling robust household spending potential that could bolster retail and discretionary sectors.
Meanwhile, a unanimous Supreme Court ruling on September 24, 2025, rejected a constitutional amendment granting lawmakers immunity from prosecution, reinforcing Brazil’s commitment to judicial accountability and boosting investor trust in governance.
Additionally, a $3 billion investment in Brazil’s onshore oil and gas sector, led by Petrobras and private players like Eneva and 3R Petroleum, promises to elevate production by 300,000 barrels per day by 2030, strengthening Brazil’s position as a commodity superpower.
These developments, combined with today’s critical economic agenda, set the stage for heightened market sensitivity as investors weigh domestic gains against global uncertainties.
Economic Agenda for September 25, 2025
Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)
- 8:00 AM BRT – BCB National Monetary Council Meeting: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Discusses monetary policy framework.
Implication: The meeting could signal the Central Bank’s stance on the Selic rate (currently 15%), critical for balancing inflation (5.1% in August) and growth.
Any hints of rate stability or gradual easing to the forecasted 12.25% by 2026 could support equities and the real, especially amid rising consumer confidence.
- 8:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (MoM) (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.51%, Previous -0.14%. Tracks monthly inflation.
Implication: A higher-than-expected CPI could pressure the Central Bank to maintain high Selic rates, impacting credit-dependent sectors like retail, while a lower reading may fuel optimism for rate cuts, supporting consumer spending and equities.
- 8:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (YoY) (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 5.36%, Previous 4.95%. Tracks annual inflation.
Implication: Rising inflation could strengthen the real by maintaining high interest rate differentials but may dampen growth expectations, affecting discretionary and industrial stocks.
United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)
- 8:30 AM BRT – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.1%, Previous 1.1%. Measures manufacturing orders.
- 8:30 AM BRT – GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.3%, Previous -0.5%. Tracks economic growth.
- 8:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, Consensus 233K, Previous 231K. Tracks unemployment claims.
- 10:00 AM BRT – Existing Home Sales (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.96M, Previous 4.01M. Tracks housing market activity.
- 15:30 PM BRT – FOMC Member Daly Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides policy insights.
Implication: U.S. data, particularly GDP and durable goods, will influence global risk sentiment and commodity demand, critical for Brazil’s oil and agricultural exports.
Strong U.S. growth could lift Petrobras and Vale, while Daly’s comments may clarify Fed rate cut plans, impacting the real’s strength.
Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)
- 2:00 AM BRT – GfK German Consumer Climate (Oct): Actual -22.3, Consensus -23.3, Previous -23.5. Measures consumer sentiment.
- 4:00 AM BRT – ECB Economic Bulletin: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides Eurozone policy insights.
Implication: Improved German consumer sentiment could signal stronger Eurozone demand for Brazil’s steel and soy exports. The ECB Bulletin may clarify monetary policy, affecting global yields and Brazil’s export competitiveness.
Other Countries
Mexico (11th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.00 trillion)
- 15:00 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 7.50%, Previous 7.75%. Tracks Banxico’s policy rate.
Implication: A expected 25 bps cut could stabilize the peso, reducing volatility in Mercosur trade and supporting Brazil’s regional exports.
Japan (3rd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$4.10 trillion)
- 19:30 PM BRT – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.8%, Previous 2.5%. Tracks core inflation.
Implication: Higher Japanese inflation could signal stronger Asian demand for Brazil’s commodities, supporting Vale and agricultural exporters.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s CPI data and Monetary Council meeting will shape expectations for Selic rate adjustments, critical for consumer-driven sectors amid rising confidence.
U.S. GDP and jobless claims will drive commodity demand and global yields, impacting Petrobras and Vale. German consumer climate and ECB insights will influence Eurozone demand for Brazil’s exports, while Mexico’s rate decision and Japan’s CPI affect regional and Asian trade dynamics.
The $3 billion oil and gas investment and governance reforms further bolster Brazil’s economic outlook, though global Fed signals introduce volatility risks.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Official market reports confirm the Ibovespa index closed at 146,491.75 points on September 24, 2025, up 0.05%, marking another historic milestone despite global caution from U.S. Federal Reserve warnings about overvalued markets.
The modest gain, driven by Petrobras’ 2.26% surge to R$32.62 per share, reflects Brazil’s growing resilience as a commodity superpower amid rising oil prices above $68/barrel.
JPMorgan’s raised price target for Petrobras from R$43.50 to R$45 fueled optimism, signaling undervaluation. Retail and banking stocks showed mixed performance. Vibra Energia gained after receiving an S&P investment-grade rating.
IRB-RE also rose on its ninth consecutive quarterly profit, despite ongoing cost pressures. The index remains above its five-day moving average, with RSI at 77.5, indicating overbought conditions.
Support lies at 142,000 points, with resistance at 147,200. Volume was moderate at 7.9 billion shares, reflecting cautious institutional participation amid global uncertainties.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets declined on September 24, 2025, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq falling 0.3%–0.4%. Technology and consumer stocks led losses, offset by energy sector gains driven by oil prices above $68/barrel and geopolitical developments.
Tesla and Alibaba rose, but most “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks were flat or lower. Investor caution grew due to Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and profit-taking after a strong rally. Defensive positioning increased as markets awaited U.S. jobs and inflation data, with volatility ticking higher.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC index edged up 0.2% to 62,450 points on September 24, 2025, with cautious trading reflecting global risk-off sentiment.
The peso weakened to 18.40 per dollar, pressured by U.S. yield spillovers and Banxico’s anticipated 25 bps rate cut to 7.50% today.
América Móvil gained on subscriber growth, while banks lagged due to tighter margins. Core inflation at 4.2% supports Banxico’s easing, but U.S. data today will influence liquidity and peso stability.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
The S&P Merval rose 0.4% to 1.820 million points on September 24, 2025, recovering above its 50-day moving average of 1.815 million.
Country risk eased slightly to 1,180 basis points, but bond yields remained elevated. The peso’s blue rate stabilized at 1,445 per dollar, with central bank interventions curbing volatility.
Local equities gained, though the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF saw $5 million outflows. Technicals show a daily RSI of 45, with support at 1.780 million and resistance at 1.835 million.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The COLCAP index held steady at 1,872 points on September 24, 2025, consolidating after a summer rally. The peso weakened to 3,865 per USD, below its two-week moving average, but was supported by 9.25% rates attracting foreign inflows.
Energy and finance sectors saw gains, driven by stable oil prices and $1.1 billion in Q2 investments. Inflation at 5.1% supports rate stability. Technicals indicate a daily RSI of 33, hinting at potential recovery, with turnover down to $80 million.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The IPSA gained 0.2% to 9,165 points on September 24, 2025, with CLP 195 billion turnover. Financials outperformed, led by Banco de Chile (+2.5%), while miners lagged as copper prices stabilized at $4.50/pound.
The peso weakened to 950 per USD, with a 14-day RSI of 40 signaling potential upside. Support lies at 945, with $10 million outflows from peso-hedged ETFs reflecting global caution. Steady copper exports and a 4.75% policy rate support resilience.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real strengthened to R$5.2600 per dollar on September 24, 2025, up 0.4% daily and 2.6% monthly, bolstered by high Selic rates (15%) and optimism from consumer confidence (90.3 points) and the $3 billion onshore oil investment.
The currency’s 15% year-to-date gain reflects Brazil’s commodity strength, with oil above $68/barrel and iron ore stable. High interest rates curb import costs but pressure exporters, with July growth flat at 0.1%.
Technicals show resistance at R$5.30, with support at R$5.20; forecasts predict R$5.25 year-end if governance and commodity trends hold. Risks include U.S. policy shifts and global yield spikes.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin stabilized at $112,000 on September 24, 2025, down 0.1% with $750 million in volumes, holding above critical $111,000 support after failing to break $117,000 resistance. Market cap remains near $2 trillion, with 57% dominance.
ETF outflows slowed to $400 million, while Ethereum saw $1 billion weekly inflows. Altcoins were mixed: Ethereum steady at $4,150, Solana down 2% to $205, and XRP flat at $2.85.
Brazil’s fintech sector eyes institutional crypto adoption, though high Selic rates and global uncertainty temper retail interest. RSI remains neutral, with U.S. data today critical for flows.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy benefits from a $3 billion onshore oil and gas investment, boosting Petrobras, Eneva, and 3R Petroleum, with production gains of 300,000 barrels per day by 2030.
High Selic rates (15%) shield the real but challenge growth, with core inflation at 5.1% necessitating cautious rate cuts to 12.25% by 2026. The Supreme Court’s rejection of lawmaker immunity enhances governance, supporting investor confidence.
Today’s CPI data (8:00 AM BRT), U.S. GDP and jobless claims (8:30 AM BRT), and German consumer climate (2:00 AM BRT) will shape energy, retail, and industrial outlooks. Global Fed signals and Mexico’s rate decision add volatility risks.
Key Developments
Energy Expansion: Petrobras’ Onshore Push – A $3 billion investment in Brazil’s onshore oil and gas, led by Petrobras, Eneva, and 3R Petroleum, targets 300,000 barrels per day by 2030, leveraging fields like Carmópolis and Potiguar.
Petrobras’ 2.26% stock surge to R$32.62 reflects optimism, with JPMorgan’s R$45 price target signaling undervaluation.
Vibra Energia’s Rating Upgrade – Vibra Energia secured an S&P investment-grade rating (BBB-), reflecting strong cash flows and debt management. The stock gained 1.5%, supported by its fuel distribution leadership and retail growth potential amid rising consumer confidence.
IRB-RE’s Profit Streak – IRB-RE reported its ninth consecutive quarterly profit in July 2025, defying cost pressures from high Selic rates.
The reinsurer’s stock rose 1.2%, bolstered by operational efficiency and growing demand for insurance amid economic recovery.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,723.62 | -0.46% | +30.55% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | +0.50% | -7.91% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.08 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | -0.30% | -10.93% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.78 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.51 | +6.85% | +46.71% | 94.07 | 100.99 | 100.36 | 70 |
| WTI | 92.18 | +6.16% | +41.27% | 86.83 | 92.66 | 92.05 | 2,256 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,052 | -2.30% | +19.37% | 4,147 | 4,054 | 4,050 | 1,237 |
| SILVER | 57.88 | -3.57% | +47.35% | 60.02 | 57.98 | 57.82 | 162 |
| LITHIUM | 69.02 | +0.03% | +55.17% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 135,477 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | — |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | — |
| PETR4 | 42.95 | +0.87% | +34.26% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 42.86 | 25,169,000 |
| VALE3 | 75.68 | +0.77% | +31.80% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 15,786,300 |
| SUZB3 | 42.43 | -0.54% | -18.01% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 2,360,000 |
| KLABIN | 17.66 | -1.51% | -4.57% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 4,883,900 |
| SLCE3 | 13.77 | -1.36% | -14.13% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.69 | 2,340,100 |
| ABEV3 | 15.92 | -1.30% | +17.14% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 18,905,100 |
| ITUB4 | 42.56 | -0.79% | +23.87% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 22,565,100 |
| BBDC4 | 18.72 | -1.32% | +17.88% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 19,153,200 |
| BBAS3 | 20.93 | -0.76% | +3.56% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 18,398,200 |
| B3SA3 | 15.65 | -1.57% | +16.88% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 41,084,700 |
| WEGE3 | 45.67 | -2.29% | +20.15% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 13,581,200 |
| PRIO3 | 60.54 | +1.29% | +42.55% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.54 | 6,347,300 |
| RENT3 | 37.14 | +0.00% | +2.51% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 13,202,100 |
| AZZA3 | 17.05 | -4.27% | -54.07% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.03 | 2,368,800 |
| CSNA3 | 5.30 | -1.49% | -39.57% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.30 | 12,053,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.06 | +0.00% | +39.72% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 7,631,200 |
| ENEV3 | 25.70 | -1.04% | +83.70% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 3,301,300 |
| LREN3 | 13.37 | -1.26% | -24.16% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 8,057,600 |
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