— Diesel prices have risen 19% since the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, with the national average hitting R$6.80 per liter and reports of R$8 in the Center-West — pushing truckers to approve a strike in assemblies across multiple states
— Lula’s government rushed out emergency measures including zeroing PIS/Cofins taxes on diesel, producer subsidies, and a proposed 50% ICMS reimbursement to states worth R$3 billion ($515 million) per month — but Petrobras then raised refinery prices by 11.6%, undermining the relief
— Strike leader Wallace “Chorão” Landim says truckers are “far more organized than in 2018” — when a 10-day shutdown cost Brazil 1.2 percentage points of GDP and caused nationwide shortages that helped topple the Temer government
A Brazil trucker strike is closer to reality than at any point since the 2018 shutdown that paralyzed the country for ten days. Truckers from São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás, and Rio Grande do Sul approved a strike action in assembly on Monday and are meeting Thursday in Santos to set a date — unless the government’s latest emergency measures prove sufficient to defuse the crisis.
The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, examines why the Iran war has created the conditions for a repeat of 2018 — and why Lula’s room to maneuver is dangerously narrow in an election year.
Why the Brazil Trucker Strike Threat Is Real
The average price of S-10 diesel — the most widely used grade in Brazil — has risen 19.4% since February 28, when the US-Israel military campaign against Iran sent oil prices toward $100 a barrel. The national average hit R$6.80 per liter, with reports of R$8 in parts of the Center-West.
“With these fuel prices, the category is paying to work — the numbers don’t close,” said Wallace Landim, known as Chorão, president of the Brazilian Association of Motor Vehicle Drivers (Abrava). “We are far more organized than in 2018.” He added that fuel stations began raising pump prices even before Petrobras announced its refinery increase.
Lula’s Emergency Response
The government moved on multiple fronts. Last week it zeroed PIS/Cofins taxes on diesel, authorized producer subsidies, and imposed export taxes. On Wednesday, Transport Minister Renan Filho announced strengthened enforcement of minimum freight rates — a key victory from the 2018 strike that truckers say companies routinely ignore.
Finance Minister Haddad proposed that states temporarily cut the ICMS tax on imported diesel, with the federal government compensating 50% of lost revenue — a fiscal commitment estimated at R$3 billion ($515 million) per month. The package was designed to reduce refinery-gate prices by R$0.64 per liter.
But the day after the first relief package, Petrobras announced a R$0.38-per-liter refinery price increase — an 11.6% jump that undercut the government’s message. Importers warn that prices remain below international parity, meaning further increases may be unavoidable.
The 2018 Ghost
In 2018, a ten-day trucker strike cost Brazil 1.2 percentage points of GDP growth, caused nationwide shortages of fuel and food, paralyzed industrial production, and devastated the agricultural sector. The political fallout weakened the Temer government and shaped that year’s presidential election.
Economist Sérgio Vale of MB Associados says the 2026 risk is real but probably smaller in scale. “Something will happen, but it’s hard to gauge the magnitude,” he said, noting that truckers were already squeezed by rising costs, a smaller 2026 harvest, and a slowing economy before the diesel spike hit.
Landim insists the motivation is purely economic — unlike recent politically motivated trucker protests he opposed. The truckers want diesel price controls, toll exemptions for empty trucks, re-nationalization of the privatized under Bolsonaro, and real enforcement of minimum freight rates that exist on paper but not on roads.
Brazil moves 60-65% of all cargo by road. With the harvest season underway and fiscal space exhausted, Lula faces the same dilemma every Brazilian president has confronted since the country bet its logistics on trucks instead of railways: when diesel goes up, everything stops. The only question now is whether Wednesday’s measures bought enough time — or whether the truckers will decide, as they did in 2018, that the pain of stopping is less than the pain of driving.
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