Key Points
— Brazilian exports to the US fell 9.1% in March and 18.7% in Q1 2026 — the eighth consecutive monthly decline since Trump imposed a 50% surcharge in mid-2025
— Exports to China surged 17.8% in March and 21.7% in Q1, producing a $5.98 billion quarterly surplus with Beijing versus a $1.39 billion deficit with Washington
— The EU and Argentina round out the picture: EU exports up 9.7% (surplus of $625 million), Argentina exports down 18.1% as Milei’s economic contraction suppresses demand
Eight months into Trump’s 50% surcharge, the Brazil trade US China 2026 data released Tuesday by the Secex confirms what commodity traders already knew: the realignment is accelerating, and it is no longer temporary.
The US Corridor Keeps Shrinking
Brazilian exports to the United States fell 9.1% in March to $2.89 billion, down from $3.18 billion in March 2025, according to data from the Secretaria de Comércio Exterior (Secex) of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services. Imports from the US also declined, falling 6.3% to $3.31 billion. The result was a $420 million monthly deficit with Washington — and the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year export declines since Trump’s surcharge took effect in mid-2025.
The Q1 picture is worse. Cumulative exports to the US dropped 18.7% to $7.78 billion, while imports fell 11.1% to $9.17 billion, producing a $1.39 billion quarterly deficit. The MDIC estimates that 22% of Brazilian exports remain subject to the surcharges established in July 2025 — either the 40% extra rate alone or the 40% plus a 10% base tariff. Some products were exempted late last year, but the core damage to the bilateral corridor is structural, not cyclical.
China Absorbs the Difference
The mirror image is China. Exports to Beijing jumped 17.8% in March to $10.49 billion, up from $8.90 billion a year earlier. Imports from China surged 32.9% to $6.66 billion. The monthly surplus with China was $3.83 billion — nearly ten times larger than the deficit with the US in the same month. Over Q1, exports to China rose 21.7% to $23.89 billion, with a cumulative surplus of $5.98 billion. China has been absorbing Brazil’s US export losses since the surcharge began, but the Q1 pace — with Chinese purchases now three times the US level — marks a new threshold in the structural dependence.
The composition of the shift matters. Soybeans, beef, and crude oil — the commodities most easily redirected — dominate the China-bound flows. Manufactured goods, which depend on established supply chain relationships and product certifications, have been harder to reroute. This means the trade pivot is deepening Brazil’s commodity profile while weakening its industrial export base to the US.
| Partner | Q1 Exports | YoY Change | Q1 Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | $23.89B | +21.7% | +$5.98B |
| EU | $12.23B | +9.7% | +$625M |
| United States | $7.78B | −18.7% | −$1.39B |
| Argentina | $3.45B | −18.1% | +$703M |
Source: Secex/MDIC, March 2026 release. Q1 = January–March 2026 vs January–March 2025.
EU Gains, Argentina Contracts
The European Union is emerging as the most balanced partner. Exports to the bloc rose 7.3% in March and 9.7% in Q1 to $12.23 billion, with imports down 2.2%, producing a $625 million quarterly surplus. The EU-Mercosur trade agreement signed in January 2026 may be contributing to confidence on both sides, though the tariff phase-in is years away. For Brazil, the EU provides diversification away from China dependence — a hedge that becomes more valuable as the Beijing corridor deepens.
Argentina tells a different story. Exports to Brazil’s largest regional partner fell 5.9% in March and 18.1% in Q1 to $3.45 billion. The decline reflects Milei’s austerity program: while inflation has fallen sharply, an estimated 21,900 companies have closed, manufacturing has contracted for six consecutive months, and approximately 290,000 formal jobs have been lost. Argentina is buying less because its economy is consuming less. The bilateral surplus of $703 million is maintained only because Argentina’s imports from Brazil fell even faster.
What the Numbers Mean
Brazil’s overall trade surplus for March was $6.41 billion, demonstrating that the macro picture remains healthy. But the bilateral composition is shifting in ways that carry long-term consequences. Brazil ended 2025 with record exports despite the tariff shock, and China absorbed the losses. The Q1 2026 data shows that pattern intensifying, not moderating.
The concentration risk is now undeniable. China bought more than three times what the US did in Q1 — and nearly twice the EU’s total. Any disruption to the China corridor, whether from Beijing’s own import quotas on beef, a shift in soybean procurement strategy, or geopolitical friction, would hit Brazil’s trade balance harder than the Trump surcharge did. The question is no longer whether Brazil is pivoting to China. It is whether the pivot has gone far enough to become a vulnerability of its own.
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