A recent Institute of Democracy survey shows São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas as the top pick to follow Bolsonaro in 2026.
He leads with 17% of voter support. Romeu Zema, another governor, trails him with 12%.
Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro and Senator Sergio Moro each have around 11%.
Researchers spoke to 2,558 people in 167 cities for the study. They did this from August 22 to 29, 2023.
The study had funding from national and state science councils. Only 3% of those polled liked the idea of Bolsonaro’s kids taking over.
Among those fond of the former President, Tarcísio has 29% support. In a slightly less fond group, his support is 25%.
Michelle Bolsonaro stands out among Bolsonaro fans. She ties with Tarcísio at 28% in this group. Moro has 13% and Zema has 5%.
For those only somewhat fond of Bolsonaro, Moro ranks second with 18%. Michelle follows at 13%, and Zema holds 10%.
A May 2023 survey showed that 25.8% of people view Tarcísio as Bolsonaro’s likely successor if the former president can’t run.
Background
This survey gives a snapshot of Brazil’s political climate as the 2026 elections approach. Tarcísio’s lead suggests the public may want continuity.
He seems to appeal to both ardent and lukewarm Bolsonaro supporters. This dual support could make him a strong contender.
On the other hand, Michelle Bolsonaro’s high score among die-hard fans is notable.
It indicates that Bolsonaro’s influence may remain strong even if he isn’t in office.
This comes after a turbulent period in Brazilian politics, filled with corruption scandals and impeachment attempts.
These poll numbers could shift dramatically as events unfold and new candidates emerge.