Although the Colombian economy would be among the fastest-growing countries in the region in 2022, national manufacturing activity would slow sharply in 2023, and forecasts for the next year are increasingly being lowered.
Fedesarrollo’s latest financial survey analysts expect the Colombian economy to grow by 2.1% in 2023, down from the 3.2% estimated in the August survey.
Next year, economic growth could range between 1.8% and 2.9%.
It should not be forgotten that the global economy is expected to weaken by 2023, partly due to high inflation rates and because central banks are raising their interest rates to curb price increases and thus consumption, which would ultimately impact economic growth in several countries.
Regarding growth expectations for 2022, analysts surveyed by Fedesarrollo indicate that the country will grow between 6.8% and 7.8% this year, with 7.4% being the median.
For the third quarter of the year, growth is expected to be between 4.3% and 7.5%.
As for inflation, analysts expect it to reach 11.20% in September, a new high since the indicator reached 10.84% year-on-year in August, a level not seen since 1999.
“On the other hand, analysts expect inflation to end the year at 11.18%, an increase in expectations compared to the previous month (9.88%),” the survey said.
It should not be forgotten that this month there will be a monetary policy decision in Colombia. Thus, analysts believe the intervention rate will increase to 10% by September 2022.
Currently, rates are at 9%.
“They expect the rate to rise to 11% by the end of the year. Finally, they expect the rate to decline in 2023 from 9% in September to 8% in December,” the survey says.
With information from Bloomberg in linea