British consultancy Oxford Economics forecasts growth of 2.3% for Angola this year, following last year’s economic expansion of 2%, mainly driven by the non-oil sector, which grew 4%.
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022 was 3%, slightly better than our estimate of 2.9%; the non-oil economy, which accounts for 75% of GDP, was the main driver of last year’s economic growth, with a 4% expansion, driven by the easing of measures against the covid-19 pandemic and improved economic policies during the implementation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, which supported comprehensive growth,” the analysts say.
Commenting on figures released by the Angolan National Statistics Institute (INE) at the end of last month, which report GDP expansion of 2.6% in the last quarter and 3% for the year as a whole, the African department of this London-based consultancy writes that “looking ahead to 2023, the forecast points to a decline in oil production, which will drive a modest moderation in economic growth to 2.3% this year, with oil production falling from 1.140 million barrels per day in 2022 to 1.127 million this year.”
Regarding last year’s last quarter, the consultants say that the 5% decline from the same period in 2021 was the main impediment to accelerating growth.
“INE says that the decline in refining margins and international demand for crude oil negatively affected the Angolan market,” compounded by the slowdown in production, which fell from 8.3% year-on-year growth in the third quarter 2022 to 0.8% in the last quarter of last year.
With information from Lusa