In Uruguay, Center-Right Candidate Takes Lead in Polls for Second Round Elections

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – As its third consecutive term in power draws to a close, with the second round of the general election to be held this Sunday, November 24th, Uruguay’s left-wing Frente Amplio (Broad Front) is showing clear signs of electoral weakness.

After nearly fifteen years in power, Frente Amplio faces a serious challenge from Luis Lacalle Pou and his center-right National Party.

The latest Factum polls presented on National Television Tuesday, November 19th, indicated that center-right candidate Luis Lacalle Pou would beat Daniel Martínez by 51 percent to 43 percent.

The situation has thus changed significantly. On October 27th, after the first round election, the front runner Martínez got 39.9 percent and Lacalle Pou a mere 29 percent of the votes.

According to the estimate, the nationalist would cross the 50 percent threshold, reach 51 percent and beat Martínez by 8 percent, who would reach 43 percent. There would also be six percent blank and void votes.

Factum’s director Eduardo Botinelli pointed out that the vote for the nationalist candidate will range between 50 and 52 percent, while that of the Broad Front will range between 42 and 44 percent. These data have a margin of error of +/- three percent.

According to the pollster, there are only two percent of voters who in October voted for the Broad Front, that will be inclined towards Luis Lacalle Pou. The remaining 98 percent will once again choose Martínez.

Among National Party voters, 99 percent will select Lacalle Pou again while one percent will elect Martínez.

Of those who voted for the Colorado Partgy, 83 percent will side with the National Party candidate in the second round, nine percent with the Frente Amplio and eight percent will cast either blank or void votes.

The distribution of the voters of Cabildo Abierto (“Open Chapter”) is similar: 84 percent will vote for Lacalle Pou, seven percent for Martínez and nine percent either blank or void.

The Frente Amplio continues to be the majority party in Montevideo and would collect 52 percent of the votes in the capital, against 42 percent that would benefit the nationalist. There are six percent undecided and blank voters.

It is in the inland areas outside the capital where Lacalle Pou turns the tide and far exceeds the Amplio Frente: 58 percent of the electorate there would support the “Blanco” leader against 37 percent who would back the ruling party. There is a five percent of either blank or void votes.

By breaking down the data by age, Martínez receives greater support within younger groups, which decreases as their age advances.

Fifty-one percent of people between the ages of 18 and 32 support the Frente Amplio candidate, compared to 44 percent for the Nationalist Front.

In the 33 to 47 age group, Martínez’s vote drops to 42 percent and Lacalle’s increases to 50 percent. In the 48 to 60 range, support for Lacalle Pou rises to 53 percent and that of Martínez drops to 41 percent. Among voters over the age of 61, 57 percent would choose Lacalle and 39 percent would choose Martínez.

An interesting fact is that Lacalle Pou would overtake Martínez at all social and economic levels.

Fifty-two percent of upper and upper-middle class voters would vote for Lacalle Pou, against 44 percent who would vote for Martínez. In the middle class, 50 percent would support the National Party and 45 percent would support the Frente Amplio.

In the middle and lower middle class, 52 percent would vote for Lacalle Pou and 43 percent for Martínez; and in the lower class, 50 percent would also vote for the nationalist and 41 percent for Martínez.

This survey was carried out between November 15th and 17th, involving 1004 telephone interviews (502 by land line and 502 by cell phone).

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