Brazilian inflation forecast: IPCA-15 declines to 0.04% in June

The inflation forecast reveals that the Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) experienced a decrease to 0.04% in June, marking a decline of 0.47 percentage points compared to the May rate of 0.51%.

These findings were released on Tuesday, 27, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

In July 2022, the IPCA-15 stood at 0.69%. The year-to-date accumulated rate is 3.16%, while the 12-month period demonstrates a rate of 3.4%, which is lower than the 4.07% observed in the previous 12 months.

The IBGE reported that the IPCA-E, the accumulated quarterly IPCA-15, reached 1.12%, lower than the 3.04% recorded in the corresponding period of 2022.

Among the nine surveyed groups of products and services, six displayed an increase in June. Housing exhibited the highest variation (0.96%) and had the most significant impact (0.14 percentage points) on the monthly index.

The other groups ranged from 0.04% for education to 0.79% for clothing.

IPCA-15 Shows Inflation Decline in Three Groups

Transportation (-0.55%), food and beverages (-0.51%), and household items (-0.01%) were the three groups that experienced a decrease in June’s IPCA-15.

The housing group was affected by elevated water and sewerage rates (3.64% and 0.06 percentage points) as well as high residential electricity rates (1.45% and 0.06 percentage points).

According to the IBGE, the June inflation forecast for personal expenses (0.52%) is notable for the 6.19% increase in gambling, following the average readjustment of 15% in the value of bets implemented on April 30.

Movies, theater, and concerts (1.29%) as well as tourism packages (1.07%) also experienced an increase in June.

The result for the health and personal care group (0.19%) in IPCA-15 was influenced by the rise in health plan prices (0.38%), which resulted from the authorized adjustment of up to 9.63% by the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) on June 13.

In the transport category (-0.55%), the negative inflation variation was driven by a drop in fuel prices (-3.75%).

Additionally, the IBGE highlighted a 10.7% increase in airfares, which had decreased by 17.26% in May.

The food and beverage group (-0.51%) experienced deflation in June, following a 0.94% rise in the previous month, according to the IPCA-15 survey.

Foodstuffs at home saw a decline from 1.02% in May to -0.81% in June, influenced by decreases in soybean oil (-8.95%), fruit (-4.39%), long-life milk (-1.44%), and meat (-1.13%).

On a positive note, notable increases were observed in hen eggs (2.04%) and French bread (0.72%).

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