The Big Three
The Ibovespa staged a V-shaped reversal from −0.56% to close at a new all-time high of 198,000.71 (+0.34%) — its 17th record of 2026 and 10th consecutive gain. The session opened in the red at 196,222 on blockade fears after Iran talks collapsed over the weekend. Then Trump said “Iran wants to make a deal very badly” and the market reversed. The index hit 198,173 intraday — breaching 198,000 for the first time ever. Vale led with +2.07%, Petrobras added +1.53%. The 200,000 milestone is now within striking distance.
The dollar closed below R$5.00 for the first time in over two years. After opening above R$5.04 on risk-off sentiment, the dollar reversed alongside the Ibovespa and settled at R$4.997 (−0.25%) — the lowest closing level since March 2024. The move was driven by Trump’s conciliatory tone, a record trade surplus in April (R$6.7 billion in two weeks, +151.6% YoY), and continued foreign capital inflows (R$11.55 billion net in April through April 9, R$65 billion YTD).
The Focus survey pushed IPCA 2026 to 4.71% — above the BCB’s target ceiling for the first time this year. The jump from 4.36% was the largest single-week increase since the war began, driven by the blockade’s impact on oil and the March IPCA reading (4.14% YoY). Despite this, the Selic year-end forecast held at 12.50%, and the market still prices a 25bp cut at the April 28–29 Copom. The disconnect between rising inflation expectations and unchanged rate forecasts reflects the market’s bet that the war shock is temporary.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa Close | 198,000.71 | +0.34% (+676.84 pts) |
| Session High | 198,173.39 | new ATH intraday |
| Session Low | 196,222.86 | morning blockade fear |
| USD/BRL | R$4.997 | −0.25% (below R$5.00) |
| April | +5.62% | 10 consecutive gains |
| YTD | +22.89% | 17th ATH of 2026 |
| Dollar YTD | −8.96% | April: −3.51% |
| Selic | 14.75% | unchanged |
| Brent Crude | $99.36 | +4.37% (hit $100 intraday) |
| Focus IPCA 2026 | 4.71% | up from 4.36% (above ceiling) |
| Focus Selic 2026 | 12.50% | unchanged |
| Volume | R$33.8B | — |
| Next Copom | Apr 28–29 | 14 days |
02 Equities — The V-Shape That Proved the Rally’s Resilience
Today’s Ibovespa market report covers one of the most revealing sessions of the ceasefire rally — a morning that tested the bull case and an afternoon that confirmed it. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Brazil’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
Monday opened in the red. The weekend collapse of U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad and Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement sent global risk assets reeling. Futures had pointed to a 1%+ decline. The Ibovespa dropped to 196,222 — down 0.56% from Friday’s record close. Banks fell, retailers dropped, and only Petrobras held green on the oil surge. The dollar spiked above R$5.04.
Then Trump said “Iran wants to make a deal very badly” and “we’ve been called by the other side.” The reversal was immediate and total. The Ibovespa ripped from 196,222 to 198,173 — a nearly 2,000-point intraday swing — and closed at 198,000.71 (+0.34%). The dollar reversed from R$5.04 to R$4.997. Wall Street, which had also opened sharply lower, staged its own comeback: the S&P 500 erased its entire Iran war decline to close at 6,886 (+1.02%).
Among the blue chips, Vale led with +2.07% on iron ore strength. Petrobras (PETR4) added +1.53% as Brent settled at $99.36 after touching $100 intraday. Bradesco gained +0.73% and Banco do Brasil edged up +0.08%. On the negative side, Itaú fell −0.52% and PRIO dropped −1.26%. Foreign capital inflows continued their record pace — R$11.55 billion net in April through April 9, with the YTD total approaching R$65 billion.
03 Focus Report — Inflation Expectations Breach Target Ceiling
Monday’s Boletim Focus was the most consequential of the year. The market raised its 2026 IPCA forecast from 4.36% to 4.71% — a 0.35 percentage point jump that pushed it above the BCB’s 4.50% target ceiling for the first time in 2026. Before the war began, analysts projected inflation below 4%. The acceleration reflects the blockade’s impact on energy prices and the March IPCA (0.88% MoM, 4.14% YoY) filtering into expectations.
Despite this, the Selic year-end forecast held at 12.50% — implying roughly 225bp of further cuts. The market still expects a 25bp cut at the April 28–29 Copom. GDP growth forecasts stayed at 1.85%. The dollar year-end forecast eased to R$5.37. The disconnect between surging inflation expectations and unchanged rate forecasts reveals the market’s core bet: the oil shock is temporary, the ceasefire will eventually produce a lasting peace, and the Copom will resume easing once the energy pass-through fades. If that bet is wrong, the repricing will be severe.
04 Technical Analysis — Ibovespa Daily
From the chart: O:197,323.87, H:198,173.39, L:196,222.86, C:198,000.71 (+676.84, +0.34%). The index printed a small bullish candle with a long lower shadow — a hammer-like pattern that confirms dip-buying conviction. RSI at 72.51 (signal: 59.71) is deeper into overbought territory than any reading this year. The MACD at 3,516.17 (signal: 1,991.98, histogram: 1,524.19) continues to expand — the widest positive divergence since the rally began.
The 200-day SMA at 157,551.98 sits 25.7% below the current price. The index trades well above the Ichimoku cloud (Senkou A: ~185,416, Senkou B: ~173,762) and all key moving averages (Kijun-sen: ~190,344, Tenkan-sen: ~191,394). The BB upper band at ~197,801 was breached on Monday — the close at 198,001 is above it, confirming a Bollinger Band walk. Resistance: 198,173 (Monday ATH) → 200,000 (psychological). Support: 196,223 (Monday low) → 195,129 (Friday prior close) → 191,394 (Tenkan-sen).
04b Technical Analysis — USD/BRL Daily
From the chart: O:5.06188, H:5.06875, L:5.01525, C:5.02837 (−0.01354, −0.27%). The dollar closed near R$5.00 — the lowest level since March 2024. RSI at 43.12 with signal at 30.38 keeps the dollar in oversold territory. The MACD histogram at −0.0498 confirms persistent bearish momentum. The Kijun-sen at ~5.1896 and Tenkan-sen at ~5.2147 sit well above the current price, confirming a strong downtrend. The lower Bollinger Band at ~5.0283 was tested — the close sits right at it. The carry trade (14.75% Selic) and record trade surpluses continue to compress the dollar. R$5.00 is the psychological floor; a sustained break below opens the path to R$4.90.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Ibovespa |
| 200,000 (psychological) | 200,000 |
| ATH Intraday (Mon) | 198,173 |
| Monday Close (ATH) | 198,001 |
| Upper Bollinger Band | 197,801 |
| Support 1 (Monday low) | 196,223 |
| Support 2 (prior ATH) | 195,129 |
| Tenkan-sen | 191,394 |
| Kijun-sen | 190,344 |
| Cloud Top (Senkou A) | 185,416 |
| 200-Day SMA | 157,552 |
06 News in Focus
Trump’s Two Messages in One Day
The session was defined by the whiplash between two Trump statements. Sunday’s announcement of a Hormuz blockade — “the United States Navy will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all ships” — sent global futures plunging. Then Monday’s declaration that Iran “wants to make a deal very badly” and “we’ve been called by the other side” reversed everything. The CENTCOM blockade did begin at 10:00 ET, targeting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, but the diplomatic door stayed open. Oil touched $100 before settling at $99.36. The market is now pricing in the blockade as a negotiating tactic, not an escalation toward war resumption.
Record Trade Surplus Supports the Real
Brazil’s trade balance in the first two weeks of April reached a surplus of $6.748 billion — a growth of 151.6% compared to the same period last year, driven by extractive industries (primarily oil). The partial April surplus already exceeds the full months of January ($3.7B), February ($4.0B), and March ($6.4B). Brazil’s status as a net oil exporter during the Hormuz crisis is generating windfall trade revenues that support the real even as the war drives global risk-off. This helps explain why the dollar broke below R$5.00 despite the blockade announcement.
Goldman Sachs: Record Quarter, Mixed Reception
Goldman Sachs kicked off U.S. earnings season with its second-highest quarterly profit ever, driven by record equities trading revenue and a surge in investment banking fees. However, FICC revenue fell 10% and missed estimates, sending shares down 1.9% despite the headline beat. CEO David Solomon said 2026 “began with a degree of optimism” but cautioned “things rarely move in a straight line.” JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo report Tuesday — their commentary on the Iran war’s impact on credit quality and dealmaking will set the tone for the week.
Itaú BBA: “Next Objective 250,000”
Analysts at Itaú BBA wrote in Monday’s Diário do Grafista: “The Ibovespa continues its uptrend toward 200,000 points. Under a medium-term view, we are beginning to monitor the next objective at 250,000 points.” BB Investimentos noted that the ceasefire rally “displaces the next upside objectives to regions above 200,000 should the Ibovespa clear that barrier.” The bullish consensus is converging — multiple brokerages now see 200,000 as an interim target, not a ceiling.
07 Global Context
Wall Street staged its own dramatic reversal. The S&P 500 rose 1.02% to 6,886.24 — erasing its entire decline since the Iran war began on February 28. The Nasdaq gained 1.23% to 23,183.74, its ninth consecutive gain and longest win streak since 2023. The Dow added 0.63% to 48,218 after recovering from a 400-point decline at the open. Software stocks surged after Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon’s comments on AI adoption headwinds — Oracle jumped nearly 13%, Salesforce rose 4.8%. The S&P 500 closed above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for the first time since before the war.
Tuesday’s pre-market was calm — S&P futures flat, Nasdaq futures +0.16%. The market is now focused on the earnings deluge: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo all report before the bell Tuesday. The consensus view has shifted: investors are “exhausted by the conflict” and pivoting back to fundamentals, as Nationwide’s Mark Hackett observed. The blockade is being treated as a negotiating lever, not a war escalation. If the banks confirm resilient credit quality and strong trading revenues, the risk-on momentum extends.
08 Looking Ahead
The 200,000 milestone is the near-term target. At 198,001, the Ibovespa needs just 1.01% to reach it — a normal session’s range. The RSI at 72.51 is overbought, but as the February and April rallies have shown, the Ibovespa can stay overbought for extended periods when foreign capital flows are this strong. The Bollinger Band walk (close above the upper band) typically resolves in one of two ways: a continuation pattern that pushes the bands wider, or a snap-back correction. With 10 consecutive gains and RSI above 72, the probability of a pause increases — but the direction of the next macro headline (Iran deal progress vs. escalation) will matter more than technicals.
The Focus report’s IPCA surge to 4.71% is the shadow hanging over the rally. If the Copom pauses at 14.75% instead of cutting at the April 28–29 meeting, rate-sensitive stocks (banks, homebuilders, retailers) would face headwinds. The market is currently pricing a 25bp cut — any signal that the blockade has changed that calculus would trigger a recalibration. Watch the DI curve and the next IPCA-15 preview for early signals.
Key dates: Tuesday April 14 — JPMorgan, Citigroup, BofA, Wells Fargo earnings. April 21 — Tiradentes holiday (B3 closed). April 28–29 — Copom meeting.
09 Verdict
Monday was the ultimate stress test — and the Ibovespa passed. A session that began with blockade fears, a 0.56% decline, and the prospect of the ceasefire rally ending was transformed by a single Trump statement into the 17th all-time high of 2026. The V-shaped reversal from 196,222 to 198,173 — and the dollar’s collapse from R$5.04 to R$4.997 — demonstrated that the structural forces driving this rally (foreign capital, carry trade, oil-exporter advantage) are powerful enough to absorb geopolitical shocks, at least as long as the diplomatic door remains open.
Bias: Bullish with caution on the 200,000 approach. RSI at 72.51 is the most overbought reading of 2026, the MACD histogram is the widest positive divergence since the rally began, and 10 consecutive gains leave the index statistically stretched. But the flow dynamics — R$65 billion in foreign capital YTD, record trade surpluses, Selic at 14.75% — are structural, not speculative. The 200,000 test is imminent. The risk is that the Focus report’s IPCA surge to 4.71% forces the Copom to pause, breaking the rate-cut narrative that has underpinned the domestic rally. Watch the DI curve, watch Iran, watch R$5.00.
Related coverage:
Previous issue: Ibovespa Breaks 197K as Dollar Nears R$5.00
Thursday session: Record Ibovespa at 195K as Peace Rally Broadens
Focus report: Brazil Focus Report: IPCA Forecast Climbs for Fourth Straight Week
Inflation guide: Brazil Inflation 2026: Rates, Forecasts and What Drives IPCA
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.