Brazil Industrial Output Rises a Fourth Month on Oil and Mining

Brazil · Economy

Brazil’s factories are on their longest winning streak in over a year — but the gains are concentrated in commodities, while the manufacturing core that needs cheaper credit is still lagging.

Brazil industrial production extends its run

Brazilian industrial production grew 0.7% in April from March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, according to the Monthly Industrial Survey released on June 3 by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Across the four-month streak the sector has accumulated 4.4% of growth, a notable turnaround for an industrial base that spent much of late 2025 signalling weakness. Output now sits 4.7% above its pre-pandemic level of February 2020, but remains 12.9% below the record reached in May 2011 — a reminder of how far Brazilian industry still is from its historical high-water mark.

Two of the four broad economic categories and 14 of the 25 industrial branches surveyed rose on the month. For the year so far, industry is up 1.7% against the same period of 2025, a modest but broad-based improvement that fits the wider picture of an economy that accelerated in the first quarter.

Commodities lead, manufacturing lags

The composition of the gain matters as much as its size. The most significant positive contributions came from extractive industries and from coke, petroleum products and biofuels, each up 3.1% and each growing for a fifth straight month. Survey manager André Macedo attributed the strength to crude oil, natural gas and iron ore on the extractive side, and to ethanol and oil derivatives — diesel in particular — on the refining side. Further support came from rubber and plastics (3.1%), wood products (8.5%), textiles (4.1%) and electrical machinery (2.2%).

The weak spots, by contrast, sat squarely in higher-value manufacturing. Chemicals fell 3.9%, the single largest drag on the month, while pharmaceuticals dropped 6.0%, machinery and equipment 2.9%, metallurgy 1.0% and motor vehicles 0.7%. That split — resource extraction and refining advancing while capital-goods and consumer-durable factories retreat — captures a recurring feature of Brazil’s recovery: the commodity complex, buoyed by elevated oil output and strong global demand for iron ore, is doing the heavy lifting, while interest-rate-sensitive manufacturing waits for relief.

What it means for the rate outlook

The data lands just ahead of the central bank‘s June 16-17 monetary policy meeting, with the benchmark Selic rate still at a restrictive level and the market’s year-end forecast clustered around 13%. A resilient industrial sector gives policymakers some comfort that the economy can absorb high rates without stalling, but the manufacturing softness underlines why the easing cycle matters: the branches dragging on the index — machinery, vehicles, durable-goods inputs — are precisely those most exposed to the cost of credit. For investors, the print reinforces a now-familiar read on Brazil: a commodity-anchored expansion that is real but uneven, with the breadth of the recovery still hostage to the rate path and to election-year fiscal signals.

The next industrial-production reading, covering May, will show whether the four-month streak can survive the deceleration already visible in parts of the manufacturing core — and whether the commodity tailwind that has carried the index since the start of the year holds as global energy and metals prices fluctuate.

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