Brazil elections 2022: Bolsonaro grows among poorest voters

Two months before Brazil’s elections, President Jair Bolsonaro’s approval rating among the poorest voters has improved after he increased the Auxilio Brasil subsidy, and the trend continues upward, according to a survey released today by consulting firm Quaest.

The poll puts former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT, left) in first place with 44% of voting intentions versus 32% for Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL, right).

The Quaest poll has a margin of error of two points for plus and two points for minus.

Lula da Silva lost one point compared to the June poll, and Bolsonaro gained one point in the same comparison, considering a sample representing all voters in the run-up to the Oct. 2 election.

However, the president’s advance is even more pronounced when the poorest Brazilians are taken into account, namely those who receive the Auxilio Brasil (survival aid), which was just increased from R$400 to 600 (about US$80 to US$120).

In June, Lula da Silva had 62% in this segment of the poorest citizens compared to Bolsonaro’s 29%, while in July, the PT candidate fell to 52% and the PL president rose to 39%.

Quaest Institute director Felipe Nunes said, “Today’s poll provides concrete evidence that voters who receive the Auxilio Brasil voted more for Bolsonaro, which means there could be a greater effect in August when the increase is paid out.”

“The Auxilio Brasil and the other perks should improve the president’s image and voting intentions, but we don’t know how significant the increase is.”

The critical day for Bolsonaro’s campaign strategy is likely to be Aug. 9, when the increase in the Auxilio Brasil, which benefits more than 50 million people, will be disbursed.

Aug. 9 could also see the announcement that there was deflation in July, something Bolsonaro himself anticipated in his statements Tuesday.

Last month, at the initiative of the ruling party, Congress approved a package of “benefits” worth some R$41 billion (US$8 billion) that, in addition to the Auxilio Brasil, includes an increase in the gasoline tax, the payment of a R$1,000 (US$200) subsidy to truck drivers and other aid to cab drivers.

Earlier, Parliament approved the fuel tax cut, a norm that helped bring down inflation in the first half of July, which is expected to continue declining.

Quaest director Nunes said today that for the majority of the 156 million voters, economic and social issues carry more weight than the issues of security and violence, which were important in the 2018 elections.

In this sense, Nunes said, “it is impressive how concern about social issues – poverty, hunger – has increased…. To get an idea: Two months ago, 11% said social issues were a priority in their voting decision; now social issues are most important to 20% of voters.”

“Of course, the economy is still the main issue for 40% of Brazilians who vote,” Nunes said.

Lula da Silva remains the favorite of citizens who prioritize economic and social issues, and “Bolsonaro will have to prove” that he has the competence to solve those issues.

Bolsonaro is ahead among voters who prioritize security and violence, Nunes added.

The pollster said Lula da Silva is still the favorite, as he not only has the most points for the first round but is also expected to win with 51% against Bolsonaro with 37% in a possible runoff election set for Oct. 30.