Key Points
— Brazil’s public debt stands at 91.4% of GDP according to the IMF — the third highest in South America behind Venezuela (138.5%) and Bolivia (93.7%), with five of twelve countries in the region above 75%
— With the Selic benchmark rate at 14.75%, a large share of federal debt is indexed to the policy rate — meaning interest payments consumed nearly R$1 trillion over 12 months by late 2025, equivalent to six years of Bolsa Família spending
— Economists warn the debt trajectory is creating a vicious cycle: rising debt raises risk perception, which raises borrowing costs, which raises debt further — all while growth projections for 2026 sit below 2%
Brazil debt-to-GDP has reached 91.4%, making it the third most indebted nation in South America according to IMF methodology, behind only Venezuela and Bolivia. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the figure — published in a Poder360 analysis of IMF data — underscores a structural fiscal challenge that economists say is now actively constraining growth and driving up borrowing costs across the economy.
Five of South America’s twelve countries now operate with debts exceeding 75% of GDP, a threshold that most economists consider a warning zone for emerging markets. The debt burdens rose sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic and have not meaningfully reversed.
South America Debt-to-GDP Rankings
Public Debt as % of GDP — South America (IMF)
| Rank | Country | Debt/GDP |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezuela | 138.5% |
| 2 | Bolivia | 93.7% |
| 3 | Brazil | 91.4% |
| 4 | Argentina | 89.5% |
| 5 | Uruguay | 75.3% |
| 6 | Colombia | 54.8% |
| 7 | Ecuador | 47.2% |
| 8 | Chile | 41.5% |
| 9 | Peru | 35.8% |
| 10 | Paraguay | 33.2% |
| 11 | Guyana | 26.1% |
| 12 | Suriname | 22.8% |
Source: IMF / Poder360. Note: IMF methodology includes all Treasury securities, including those held by the Central Bank. Brazil’s Central Bank uses a narrower measure ~8-10pp lower.
Why Brazil Debt-to-GDP Keeps Rising
The central problem is structural: Brazil spends more than it collects, and its benchmark interest rate — the Selic, currently at 14.75% — makes the cost of carrying that debt enormous. Interest payments reached nearly R$1 trillion over a 12-month period by late 2025, peaking at 7.88% of GDP in October — equivalent to roughly six years of Bolsa Família outlays.
Luciano Nakabashi, an economics professor at the University of São Paulo, argued that the trajectory signals a deeper imbalance. He noted that government savings are negative, which reduces national investment capacity and pushes up medium-term interest rates — creating a feedback loop that compounds the problem.
The roots trace to the 1988 Constitution, which expanded social rights and benefits, and to the end of high inflation in 1994, which eliminated an implicit revenue source the government had relied on for decades. Brazil’s pension system, historically generous by emerging-market standards, continues to exert pressure on public finances even after the 2019 reform.
The Vicious Cycle
Economist Marcello Bassani described the dynamic as self-reinforcing: high debt raises risk perception, which raises borrowing costs, which further increases the debt burden. As a growing share of the budget goes to interest payments, less remains for infrastructure, education, and productivity-enhancing investment.
The external environment makes matters worse. The U.S. Federal Reserve is holding rates at 3.50%–3.75%, keeping American Treasuries attractive to global capital. Emerging markets like Brazil must offer even higher returns to compete — a dynamic that keeps domestic rates elevated and the cost of debt rollover punishing.
The Iran war has added another layer of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions are pushing capital toward safer developed-market assets, raising the risk of capital flight and currency depreciation in countries like Brazil.
Growth projections for 2026 sit below 2%, far too weak to reduce the debt ratio through the denominator alone. The government projects gross debt peaking at 84.2% of GDP by 2028 under its own narrower methodology — but the IMF’s broader measure already shows the number well above 90%.