Lula Approval Falls to Lowest Since July as Brazil Polls Tighten

A wave of polling data has consolidated a picture that neither Planalto nor the Workers’ Party can easily dismiss: Brazilians are increasingly dissatisfied with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third-term government, and the trajectory is tightening the 2026 presidential race into a genuine contest. The Lula approval rating fell to 44% against 51% disapproval in the latest Genial/Quaest survey of 2,004 voters conducted March 6–9, the worst gap since July 2025 and a deterioration from 45%–49% just a month earlier. The findings are consistent across pollsters: Ipsos-Ipec recorded a similar 43%–51% split, Meio/Ideia showed 47.2%–50.5%, and Datafolha tracked negative assessments rising from 37% to 40%. This is part of The Rio Times’ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.

Lula Approval Erodes Across Key Demographics

The numbers reveal shifts in groups that have traditionally anchored Lula’s political strength. For the first time, women disapprove of the government (48%) more than they approve (46%) — a crossing that alarms strategists in a demographic that has historically leaned toward PT candidates. Among Catholics, disapproval surged five points in a single month to 47%. Even in the Northeast, Lula’s strongest regional base, approval remains high at 65% but has slipped from previous readings. In the South, Southeast, and Center-West/North, disapproval ranges from 58% to 60%. When asked whether Lula deserves four more years, 59% said no. Only 37% said yes.

The economic backdrop helps explain the discontent. Quaest found 48% believe the economy has worsened over the past year, and among workers earning up to five minimum wages who should have benefited from the income tax exemption, 62% said they had not been helped. The government’s negative economic assessment rose to 43%, up from 39% in February, returning to levels last seen during the May 2025 peak of frustration.

Flávio Bolsonaro Closes the Gap

The political beneficiary, at least for now, is Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who was designated by his imprisoned father as the right-wing opposition’s standard-bearer. In a second-round simulation, Flávio and Lula are now tied at 41% each, a dramatic shift from the 43%–38% margin Lula held just one month ago. Analysts caution, however, that not all of Flávio’s gains reflect enthusiasm for the Bolsonaro project. The hard-core bolsonarista electorate remains stable at roughly 15–25% of voters. Gains above that ceiling likely represent anti-Lula sentiment rather than pro-Bolsonaro conviction — a protest vote from independents who disapprove of the current government (57% disapproval among self-described independents) but have not necessarily embraced the alternative.

Structural Fatigue or Cyclical Slump?

The central debate in Brazilian political analysis is whether Lula’s declining numbers represent a reversible cyclical downturn or something more structural. The president’s supporters point to his resilience in previous campaigns and the fact that elections are still seven months away — an eternity in Brazilian politics. They also note that the Bolsonaro brand carries its own heavy rejection rates, limiting the ceiling for any candidate bearing that name. Government allies argue the recent approval dip reflects temporary factors: energy subsidy adjustments, rising utility costs, and the global inflationary shock from the Middle East conflict, all of which could stabilize.

Critics, including analysts across the political spectrum, see something deeper. After three mandates and decades of national prominence, Lula may be encountering what political scientists call incumbency fatigue — the point at which a leader’s narrative becomes so familiar that voters stop listening, regardless of policy outcomes. The government’s perceived lack of reformist ambition, declining fiscal revenues, and a sense among middle-class voters that the PT’s model has reached its limits all contribute to what one editorial described as a country “tired of Lula.” Whether that fatigue translates into a viable opposition victory depends on whether Brazil’s fragmented electorate can coalesce around an alternative — or whether, as in previous cycles, the choice between two imperfect options ultimately draws voters back toward the known quantity.

For the full picture, see our Brazil Elections 2026: Complete Guide.