Bitcoin Holds $68,400 as Fear & Greed Drops to 10

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The CPI rally is now officially dead. Saturday’s brief reclaim of $70,000 — bitcoin traded as high as $70,434 per Bitcoin Magazine — has been fully unwound across four consecutive sessions of grinding lower. BTC sits at $68,425 on Presidents’ Day morning, down 0.64% on the daily candle, with the intraday low touching $67,869. The pattern is now unmistakable: every bounce in the $60,000–$72,000 range gets sold within 48–72 hours. Friday’s CPI print (2.4% y/y, below 2.5% consensus) and the softer core reading (2.5% y/y, weakest in nearly 5 years) briefly reignited rate-cut optimism, but the follow-through was absent.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of cryptocurrency markets and Latin American financial markets.

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The Fear & Greed Index dropping to 10 — just five points above the all-time low of 5 set on February 6 — captures the market’s psychology. Bitwise reported $8.7 billion in realized losses last week, second only to the 3AC collapse. Bitcoin treasury firms were sitting on $16.9 billion in unrealized losses as of Saturday, down from $21 billion at the peak. Yet the equity-crypto disconnect is notable: Coinbase surged 18% and Strategy jumped 10% on Friday as investors rotated back into crypto-exposed names. Prediction markets on Kalshi increased implied odds of an April rate cut to 23%, and Polymarket pricing for BTC on Feb 17 clusters in the $68,000–$72,000 range (29% and 27% probability respectively).

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Today’s session is defined by absence. US markets are closed for Presidents’ Day — no ETF flows, no institutional order flow, no fresh macro catalysts. This vacuum is exposing the underlying bearish microstructure: the perpetual session low hit $67,250 earlier today, while the 24-hour high of $70,090 is already a fading memory. Altcoins are slightly outperforming with ETH +0.83%, SOL +1.47%, ADA +3.18%, and XRP +0.94% — but the gains are concentrated in low-volume conditions and shouldn’t be confused with genuine risk-on behavior.

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The precious metals selloff is adding cross-asset pressure. Gold is down 1.81% to $4,920 and silver has crashed 2.91% to $74.84, both breaking below Friday’s CPI-bounce support levels. Gold hit an intraday low of $4,865 and silver touched $72.84. The metals weakness — despite a flat DXY at 96.83 — suggests broad profit-taking and pre-FOMC positioning. Among micro-cap movers, Rocket Pool surged 53.17% on $29.7M volume (likely a short squeeze in thin conditions), ORCA ripped 37.90%, and POWER gained 31.06%. On the downside, Humanity collapsed 13.11%, Pippin lost 12.28%, and Siren — yesterday’s +65.8% darling — reversed 10.12%. Classic holiday-liquidity noise.

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Daily timeframe (TradingView, Feb 17 07:53 UTC): BTC/USD on Bitstamp printed O: 68,867 / H: 69,205 / L: 67,869 / C: 68,425 (−442, −0.64%). The candle is a small-body bearish continuation with a slightly longer lower wick, indicating some dip-buying near $67,869 but no conviction to push higher. Price remains pinned between the $67,250 session low and the $69,205 daily high — a progressively tightening range within the broader $66,525–$70,434 channel. The Ichimoku cloud sits massively overhead: Senkou Span A at approximately 83,466 and Senkou Span B at 83,445, with the 200-day SMA at 100,104 — a full 46% above current price. The Tenkan-sen ($72,060) and Kijun-sen ($75,526) are both well above price and declining, confirming a fully bearish Ichimoku cross.

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The MACD line sits at −4,668 with the signal at −5,065, keeping the histogram positive at 397 — slightly improved from yesterday’s +267, representing the second consecutive session of narrowing bearish momentum. Both lines remain deeply negative and well below zero; this is convergence, not a bullish crossover. RSI reads 35.79 (signal at 31.66), marginally lower than yesterday’s 35.93, confirming the failure to build upward momentum from the CPI bounce. The Bollinger Bands show price hugging the midline at $68,538, with the upper band at $78,935 and lower band at $60,676. The narrowing range within the bands — price has now spent seven consecutive sessions between $66,525 and $70,434 — is building toward a volatility squeeze that could resolve violently in either direction once the FOMC minutes provide a catalyst on Tuesday.

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Presidents’ Day aftermath: US markets were closed Monday, leaving a full session with no ETF flows and no institutional order flow. Crypto books remained structurally thin through the holiday and may take until midday Tuesday to normalize. The absence of institutional participation allowed the weekend fade to extend unchecked — and with $67,250 as yesterday’s session floor, the first real test comes when US-hours liquidity returns this morning.

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FOMC Minutes (Tuesday, Feb 18): The highest-conviction catalyst of the week. The January meeting minutes could reignite rate-cut repricing. Markets are pricing ~10% odds of a 25bp cut at the March 17–18 meeting, with two full cuts expected by year-end. Prediction markets have pushed April cut odds to 23% (Kalshi). Any dovish language acknowledging the disinflation progress evident in the CPI could extend the bid past $70,000. Hawkish surprises would cap recovery potential and likely retest $66,525.

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Data gauntlet (Wed–Thu): Initial jobless claims on Wednesday (last print 227K, above 222K estimate). Thursday brings Q4 GDP data and February Manufacturing & Services PMI. Weak growth readings could accelerate the timeline for Fed easing — bullish for risk assets including crypto.

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Precious metals cross-read: Gold’s 1.81% decline and silver’s 2.91% crash today represent a potential leading indicator. If gold loses $4,880 on a closing basis this week, the broader risk-off impulse could drag BTC toward $66,525. Conversely, if metals stabilize above support into the FOMC minutes, the combined dovish catalyst + metals recovery could amplify BTC’s rebound potential.

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Canary Capital bearish call: CEO Steven McClurg told CNBC he expects BTC to fall as low as $50,000 by summer, citing the four-year halving cycle entering its bear leg. Standard Chartered also slashed their target from $150,000 to $100,000. Against this, the contrarian argument: Fear & Greed at 10 has historically been a high-probability reversal zone. The December 2025 trough to 5 preceded a rally to nearly $100,000 in January. The April 2025 trough to 17 preceded a $74,500→$105,000 move in May.

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