Argentina’s Merval Plunges 9.6% in Seven Sessions as INDEC Crisis, IMF Scrutiny and Global Tech Rout Converge

Argentina’s financial markets suffered their worst weekly stretch in months on Thursday as the S&P Merval closed at 2,932,838 points — down 2.8% on the session and 9.6% across seven consecutive losing days.

The resignation of INDEC chief Marco Lavagna over the government’s refusal to update the CPI base year, a surging country risk that hit 516 basis points, and a deepening global technology selloff combined to shatter the rally that had pushed the index to all-time highs just ten days earlier.

Key Market Data — February 5, 2026 (Session Close)

Performance Analysis

Thursday’s session sealed the Merval’s seventh consecutive decline, a losing streak that has erased 9.6% of value since January 27 and wiped out all of January’s gains.

The benchmark closed at 2,932,838 points — down 2.8% on the day — after having touched an all-time high of 3,296,502 just ten days prior.

In dollar-adjusted terms via the contado con liquidación rate, the index now trades in the 1,950–2,000 range, a critical zone that analysts identify as key support for the medium-term outlook.

The damage was widespread. Argentine ADRs trading in New York were pummeled, with BBVA Argentina, Bioceres and Banco Supervielle each dropping approximately 8% in a session dominated by institutional risk aversion.

The financials sector led losses domestically, shedding 8.0% over the past seven days according to SimplyWall.St data.

Sovereign bonds in dollars — both Bonares and Globales — slipped an average of 0.2%, pushing the JP Morgan EMBI country risk index up 16 units to 516 basis points, its highest reading since January 23 and a sharp reversal from the multi-year low of 474 basis points touched just the previous week.

The broader market continues to trade at a stretched 37.5x price-to-earnings multiple, well above its three-year average of 28.9x, leaving room for further valuation compression if sentiment does not stabilize.

Key Drivers

The institutional crisis at INDEC proved the most damaging domestic catalyst. Marco Lavagna resigned as head of Argentina’s national statistics agency after the Milei administration decided not to update the 2004 base year used to calculate the Consumer Price Index — a change Lavagna had publicly committed to implementing.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo defended the decision, stating that he and President Milei disagreed on technical grounds, arguing the proposed new weightings were based on outdated 2017–2018 survey data.

The dispute carries outsized market significance because the BCRA’s floating exchange rate band now adjusts monthly according to INDEC’s published inflation figures.

Any perception of political interference in CPI methodology directly affects the peso’s trajectory, bond pricing and the credibility of the entire monetary framework. January’s inflation print, expected at approximately 2.5%, will now be scrutinized even more intensely.

Compounding the domestic uncertainty, a visiting IMF delegation is currently in Buenos Aires conducting a formal review of Argentina’s program targets — a routine but symbolically important process given the $4.7 billion in total IMF maturities facing the country in 2026.

Earlier in the week, Caputo confirmed the completion of an $880 million payment to the Fund in Special Drawing Rights, a reminder of the fiscal burden ahead.

The global backdrop offered no relief. Wall Street’s major indices fell more than 1% on Thursday, dragged lower by the ongoing technology rout as fears mounted over the artificial intelligence investment cycle.

The Nasdaq shed 1.8%, with Nvidia declining over 3% amid reports of stalled negotiations with OpenAI. President Trump’s nomination of economist Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve injected additional volatility, triggering sharp moves across asset classes — gold and silver plunged 9% and 28% respectively from recent all-time highs as markets recalibrated rate expectations.

Bitcoin fell below $78,000 for the first time since April 2025, reinforcing the risk-off tone across emerging markets.

Exchange Rate Dynamics

The wholesale dollar fell to ARS 1,442 on Thursday — its lowest level since January 26 and 13 pesos below the 2025 year-end close — a remarkable development given the equity selloff.

The decline reflects persistent dollar supply in the official market, with the BCRA continuing its aggressive reserve accumulation program.

Minister Caputo noted that without central bank intervention, the peso would have appreciated toward the 1,300 pesos per dollar zone, highlighting the underlying strength of dollar inflows.

Financial dollars told a different story. The contado con liquidación climbed back above ARS 1,505 (+0.6%), widening the gap between various exchange rate quotations and signaling that institutional investors are hedging through the financial dollar channel.

Dollar futures fell 0.2% to 0.5% across the curve, with the February contract settling at ARS 1,465 — still 9.7% below the BCRA‘s band ceiling of approximately ARS 1,607 for month-end.

The blue dollar held at ARS 1,455 for sale, remaining the cheapest quotation in the market — an unusual configuration that reflects the near-complete convergence achieved under the floating band regime. In 2026, the informal dollar has declined ARS 90 or 5.6%, a striking signal of reduced parallel market demand.

Technical Outlook

Thursday’s close below 3,000,000 points breached the critical psychological floor that had held during Wednesday’s session.

The weekly TradingView charts show the Merval printing a large bearish candle that has now broken below the 50-day moving average, with RSI readings at 34–39 on the 4-hour timeframe approaching oversold territory.

On the daily chart, the stochastic RSI sits at 39/53 with a bearish crossover, while the MACD histogram has turned firmly negative across both daily and 4-hour timeframes.

The next meaningful support cluster lies at 2,866,931, where the 100-day moving average converges with the Ichimoku cloud base.

A break below that level could expose the index to the weekly Kijun-sen near 2,772,000. For USD/ARS, the 4-hour chart shows the wholesale rate consolidating between 1,438 and 1,452, with Bollinger Bands compressing — consistent with the controlled devaluation framework now tied to monthly inflation data.

Analyst Perspectives

Ian Colombo, financial advisor at Cocos Gold, framed the correction in global terms: “Argentina is not exempt from what’s happening in the world, with the S&P 500 dropping, the Nasdaq and particularly technology stocks suffering heavy selling because investors fear that AI could even hurt technology and software companies.

The world is moving out of stocks and risky bonds.” Colombo also cautioned carry trade investors against underestimating exchange rate risk, noting the official rate sits just 8% below the BCRA’s band ceiling — a gap that could evaporate if conditions shift.

Analysts at IEB (Invertir en Bolsa) described the February outlook as “an action movie” compared to January’s calmer picture, citing the convergence of pending legislative action — including labor and glacier reform bills — alongside the start of Q4 2025 earnings season.

Banking sector results are expected to provide a potential positive catalyst given improved credit growth and lower funding costs throughout the second half of 2025.

Looking Ahead

The week ahead brings several catalysts that will determine whether the Merval stabilizes or extends its correction.

The Argentine Senate is expected to debate labor reform and glacier regulation bills around February 11, with outcomes likely to influence confidence in Milei’s reform agenda.

The IMF mission currently in Buenos Aires will conclude its target review, with findings that could affect the trajectory of the country’s program and reserve outlook.

Q4 2025 corporate earnings — particularly from the banking sector — begin filtering through in the second and third weeks of February.

Globally, the fallout from the Federal Reserve leadership transition and any stabilization in the AI-driven technology selloff will set the tone for emerging market risk appetite.

The BCRA’s reserve accumulation program, which has surpassed $1.4 billion in purchases across more than 23 consecutive sessions, remains a key structural positive — though the $4.7 billion in IMF maturities looming through year-end will keep debt sustainability concerns alive.

With the Merval now trading below the 3-million-point psychological floor and country risk back above 500 basis points for the first time in two weeks, Argentina’s markets face a defining test: whether the structural reforms and reserve accumulation of recent months can absorb the twin shocks of domestic institutional turmoil and global risk aversion, or whether a deeper correction toward the 2,770,000–2,870,000 support zone is in store.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentine markets and Latin American financial news.

For regional context, see the Brazil’s Ibovespa report for the same date: Brazil’s Ibovespa.

For regional context, see the Chile’s IPSA report for the same date: Chile’s IPSA.