Country Risk Hits 514 After Fitch Lifts Argentina to B- Rating
Argentina’s country risk index fell 41 points to 514 on Wednesday May 6, the lowest since February 18, after Fitch upgraded the sovereign to B- from CCC+ on Tuesday and Secretary of Economic Policy José Luis Daza promised “an avalanche of dollars” at the Inside Argentina 2026 event hosted by Moody’s at the Four Seasons Buenos Aires.
The S&P Merval climbed 4.4% to 2,881,352 points, sovereign bonds rose 1.5%, Banco Macro ADRs jumped 10.4%, and Ternium gained 9.8% post-earnings.
President Javier Milei landed in Los Angeles for the 29th Milken Institute Global Conference, where Finance Minister Luis Caputo announced Chevron will submit a new RIGI project worth more than US$10 billion.
Key Points
— Country risk fell 41 points to 514, the lowest level since February 18.
— Fitch upgraded Argentina to B- from CCC+ with stable outlook on Tuesday May 5.
— S&P Merval +4.4% to 2.88M points; Banco Macro ADR +10.4%; Ternium +9.8%; Supervielle +7.4%.
— Daza expects “avalanche of dollars” linked to nearly US$100 billion of pending RIGI projects.
— Milei at Milken Institute Conference in LA; Chevron commits new RIGI project of US$10 billion.
What Daza Said in Buenos Aires
The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that Daza, the Secretary of Economic Policy and right hand of Finance Minister Luis Caputo, opened the Inside Argentina 2026 event organized by Moody’s Ratings at the Four Seasons Hotel Buenos Aires with three pivotal messages. First, the government will not artificially stimulate the economy to win the 2027 mid-term elections, breaking the historical Argentine pattern of pre-electoral spending. Second, fiscal and monetary discipline will hold, with no abandonment of the surplus framework that anchored the Milei program from day one.
Daza’s third message focused on the foreign-exchange thesis: “an avalanche of dollars is coming, we are going to have a problem of oversupply of dollars, and there will be pressure for the exchange rate to appreciate”. He linked the call to the nearly US$100 billion of projects pending approval under the Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI), with energy and mining as the main inflow drivers. The secretary also signaled the 2026 financing program is closed and the team is preparing the 2027 program ahead of the electoral cycle.
The Fitch Upgrade and What It Means
Fitch Ratings cited “improved fiscal and external balances”, “progress in economic reforms”, and “better prospects for foreign-exchange reserve accumulation” in its B- upgrade with stable outlook. The agency forecasts 3.2% Argentine GDP growth in 2026 and noted Milei’s October 2025 mid-term victory as supportive context. Daza argued the upgrade lets thousands of institutional funds previously barred from CCC-rated paper now buy Argentine bonds, “substantially reducing the cost of capital”.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
+2.43%
177,866
+2.97%
66,496
+0.59%
11,057
+0.28%
3,280,224
+2.43%
2,307.67
+0.65%
56,194.27
+1.29%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,280,224 | +2.43% | +58.56% | 3,202,490 | 3,285,584 | 3,193,075 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,487 | -0.03% | +18.72% | 1,488 | 1,487 | 1,487 | — |
| YPF | 74,450 | -1.75% | +83.94% | 75,775 | 75,500 | 73,800 | 64,044 |
| GGAL | 8,350 | +5.96% | +34.89% | 7,880 | 8,375 | 7,770 | 1,929,801 |
| PAMPA | 5,185 | -0.38% | +43.83% | 5,205 | 5,300 | 5,120 | 125,060 |
| TXAR | 671.00 | +0.98% | +6.44% | 664.50 | 673.00 | 641.00 | 296,288 |
| ALUAR | 978.00 | +0.98% | +43.19% | 968.50 | 984.00 | 956.00 | 149,257 |
| TGS | 9,610 | +3.22% | +43.22% | 9,310 | 9,610 | 9,135 | 38,741 |
| CEPU | 2,405 | +3.89% | +65.29% | 2,315 | 2,405 | 2,263 | 261,328 |
| MIRGOR | 17,375 | +1.02% | -17.46% | 17,200 | 17,500 | 17,000 | 541 |
| COME | 45.90 | +1.06% | -11.20% | 45.42 | 46.89 | 45.22 | 3,053,148 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,583 | +2.43% | +31.23% | 3,498 | 3,603 | 3,470 | 221,199 |
| BYMA | 314.00 | +1.37% | +59.19% | 309.75 | 315.00 | 306.50 | 228,225 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,248 | +3.09% | +92.63% | 4,120 | 4,248 | 4,048 | 24,792 |
| GLOBANT | 29.96 | -4.25% | -64.84% | 31.29 | 32.19 | 29.81 | 1,379,752 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,852 | +2.46% | -22.42% | 1,808 | 1,884 | 1,810 | 404,791 |
Milei in Los Angeles and the Chevron Move
President Milei opened his US tour at the 29th Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles in the early hours of May 6, with Caputo, Federal Revenue Secretary Pablo Quirno, and Industry Secretary Juan Pazo at his side for back-to-back investor meetings. The headline of the day was a meeting with Chevron CFO Eimar Bonner and global head of policy Laura Lane, after which Caputo announced on X that the oil major will submit a new RIGI project worth more than US$10 billion. The commitment lands amid an oil-price correction, with WTI crude down 6.8% to US$95.23 per barrel and Vista Energy down 4.9% on the day.
The Banco Central kept its accumulation strategy in motion, buying around US$45 million of dollars in spot trading and lifting the year’s purchase total close to US$7.3 billion, while reservas brutas fell US$233 million to US$45.674 billion after a IMF debt repayment of US$823 million. The official wholesale dollar fell to ARS 1,388, the lowest since April 22, while the retail dollar at Banco Nación closed at ARS 1,410. The Banco Central’s upper currency-band ceiling sits at ARS 1,714.28, leaving the official exchange rate roughly 23.5% below the limit.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Country risk (May 6) | 514 bps (−41 in day) |
| S&P Merval close | 2,881,352 (+4.4%) |
| Banco Macro ADR | +10.4% |
| Ternium ADR | +9.8% (post-earnings) |
| Sovereign bond rally | +1.5% avg |
| Wholesale ARS/USD | 1,388 (low since Apr 22) |
| Reservas brutas | US$45.674B |
| Pending RIGI projects | ~US$100B |
| Chevron new RIGI commit | US$10B+ |
Connected Coverage
For broader context on Latin American macro markets, see our coverage of the Banxico final-cut decision and Mexican monetary signals across the region and our analysis of the Lula-Trump White House meeting and Brazil’s investor positioning backdrop.
What Happens Next
- Friday May 8: US non-farm payrolls release; key external trigger for ARS dynamics.
- Mid-May: Buenos Aires City scheduled US$500 million 10-year bond sale under English law.
- Through June: Awaiting Moody’s and S&P potential upgrades to B- to compress spreads further.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Inside Argentina 2026?
Inside Argentina 2026 is the annual investor conference organized by Moody’s Ratings at the Four Seasons Hotel Buenos Aires, held this year on May 6. Secretary of Economic Policy José Luis Daza opened the event with a 90-minute presentation alongside Moody’s Senior Vice President Jaime Reusche. Daza promised the 2026 financing program is closed and committed to no fiscal or monetary stimulus before the 2027 mid-term elections, breaking with historical Argentine practice.
Why is the Fitch upgrade significant?
Fitch’s upgrade from CCC+ to B- on May 5 lifts Argentina out of the speculative-grade tier where many institutional funds are restricted from buying. Daza estimated thousands of funds will now have access to Argentine bonds, with markets expecting potential spread compression of 20-30 basis points. Argentina now sits in the B- league alongside Angola, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nigeria, with the Global 2046 yielding 9.69% — about 150 to 210 basis points above its B- peers.
What did Milei do at the Milken Conference?
President Javier Milei opened his US tour at the 29th Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles in the early hours of May 6 alongside Luis Caputo, Pablo Quirno, and Juan Pazo. The Argentine team met Chevron CFO Eimar Bonner and policy chief Laura Lane, securing a commitment for a new RIGI project worth more than US$10 billion. Caputo confirmed the deal on X and said the project will be submitted “in the coming days”.
What does “avalanche of dollars” mean?
Daza used “avalancha de dólares” to describe the projected inflow from the nearly US$100 billion of projects pending approval under the RIGI investment regime, plus rising trade flows. The implication is that the Argentine peso could appreciate in real terms even without policy intervention, as Daza framed it as a “consequence of the underlying economic process”. The wholesale dollar at ARS 1,388 already sits 23.5% below the upper band of ARS 1,714.28 set by the Banco Central.
Updated: 2026-05-07T09:30:00Z by Rio Times Editorial Desk
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