Vale Is Brazil Analysts’ Unanimous Top Stock Pick for June

BRAZIL · MARKETS

In a month when foreign money fled the Brazilian market, analysts turned defensive — and the one name they all agreed on was the country’s mining heavyweight.

A rare unanimous call

Vale (VALE3 on Brazil’s exchange, VALE on the New York Stock Exchange) is the most-recommended Brazilian stock for June 2026, according to a compilation by the financial outlet InfoMoney drawing on the model portfolios of the country’s 10 leading brokerages and research houses. For the first time in 2026, the miner appears in every portfolio surveyed — a rare unanimous call. Itaú (ITUB4), with seven mentions, came in second; the bank returned to BTG Pactual’s June portfolio, replacing digital lender Nubank.

The unanimity reflects a defensive shift. May was brutal for Brazilian equities: heavy foreign outflows, growing election-related noise and a downward revision in expectations for interest-rate cuts pushed the benchmark Ibovespa down 7.22%, its worst monthly performance since February 2023. In that environment, analysts migrated toward names offering predictable results, cash generation and discounted valuations after the correction.

Why iron ore is doing the heavy lifting

Vale was the only stock in the ranking to finish May in the black, rising 2.02% while the index slumped. The performance rested on the resilience of iron ore, trading near $110 a tonne, and on signs of a recovery in Chinese industrial activity. The easing of geopolitical tension in the Middle East — which weighed on oil producer Petrobras — had the opposite effect on the miner, reducing global risk and favoring appetite for metallic commodities. Santander projects iron-ore prices above $100 a tonne throughout 2026, sustained by limited supply, resilient Chinese demand and growth in markets such as India and Southeast Asia.

The bull case, and the caveats

Analysts at Terra Investimentos argue the valuation remains discounted, leaving room for gains as the commodity recovers — a view echoed across the houses favoring the stock for its cash generation and shareholder returns. The caveats are familiar ones for a commodity exporter: the thesis leans heavily on iron-ore prices and on the trajectory of China’s property and industrial cycle, both of which can turn quickly. Cost pressure is also a factor the houses flag even as they keep the stock on their lists. None of this constitutes investment advice; readers should weigh their own objectives and consult a licensed professional before acting.