BRAZIL · MARKETS
Key Facts
—Clean sweep: Mining giant Vale is the most-recommended Brazilian stock for June, appearing in all 10 brokerage portfolios in a compilation by financial outlet InfoMoney.
—A first for 2026: It is the first time this year the miner has appeared in every portfolio surveyed.
—Survived the sell-off: Vale was the only stock in the ranking to end May in positive territory, up 2.02%, against an index that fell 7.22%.
—Commodity support: Iron ore near $110 a tonne and signs of a Chinese industrial pickup underpinned the move.
—The forecast: Santander projects iron-ore prices above $100 a tonne through 2026, citing limited supply and resilient demand.
In a month when foreign money fled the Brazilian market, analysts turned defensive — and the one name they all agreed on was the country’s mining heavyweight.
A rare unanimous call
Vale (VALE3 on Brazil’s exchange, VALE on the New York Stock Exchange) is the most-recommended Brazilian stock for June 2026, according to a compilation by the financial outlet InfoMoney drawing on the model portfolios of the country’s 10 leading brokerages and research houses. For the first time in 2026, the miner appears in every portfolio surveyed — a rare unanimous call. Itaú (ITUB4), with seven mentions, came in second; the bank returned to BTG Pactual’s June portfolio, replacing digital lender Nubank.
The unanimity reflects a defensive shift. May was brutal for Brazilian equities: heavy foreign outflows, growing election-related noise and a downward revision in expectations for interest-rate cuts pushed the benchmark Ibovespa down 7.22%, its worst monthly performance since February 2023. In that environment, analysts migrated toward names offering predictable results, cash generation and discounted valuations after the correction.
Why iron ore is doing the heavy lifting
Vale was the only stock in the ranking to finish May in the black, rising 2.02% while the index slumped. The performance rested on the resilience of iron ore, trading near $110 a tonne, and on signs of a recovery in Chinese industrial activity. The easing of geopolitical tension in the Middle East — which weighed on oil producer Petrobras — had the opposite effect on the miner, reducing global risk and favoring appetite for metallic commodities. Santander projects iron-ore prices above $100 a tonne throughout 2026, sustained by limited supply, resilient Chinese demand and growth in markets such as India and Southeast Asia.
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Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.92%
172,197
-0.92%
68,137
-0.66%
10,626
-1.50%
3,242,788
+2.41%
2,254.58
+3.57%
34,836.62
+0.71%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 172,197 | -0.92% | +25.89% | 173,788 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.02 | -0.20% | -12.31% | 5.03 | 5.03 | 5.02 | — |
| SELIC | 14.50% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 42.37 | +2.59% | +36.33% | 41.30 | 43.02 | 41.96 | 73,881,900 |
| VALE3 | 81.70 | -1.35% | +55.44% | 82.82 | 82.25 | 80.58 | 16,580,500 |
| ITUB4 | 39.36 | -1.65% | +9.13% | 40.02 | 40.06 | 39.25 | 32,696,600 |
| BBDC4 | 17.50 | -1.02% | +7.76% | 17.68 | 17.81 | 17.47 | 27,350,600 |
| BBAS3 | 20.08 | -0.79% | -13.75% | 20.24 | 20.55 | 20.05 | 50,103,500 |
| B3SA3 | 16.25 | -1.52% | +18.53% | 16.50 | 16.47 | 16.00 | 49,557,100 |
| ABEV3 | 16.43 | +0.67% | +18.12% | 16.32 | 16.57 | 16.14 | 37,459,700 |
| WEGE3 | 43.00 | -2.49% | +2.75% | 44.10 | 44.86 | 42.84 | 10,971,900 |
| PRIO3 | 62.82 | +0.92% | +58.08% | 62.25 | 64.34 | 62.44 | 7,718,100 |
| SUZB3 | 40.65 | -3.01% | -18.01% | 41.91 | 41.93 | 40.64 | 8,270,500 |
| RENT3 | 41.34 | -1.62% | -4.55% | 42.02 | 42.23 | 41.11 | 11,090,600 |
| AZZA3 | 18.78 | -2.74% | -58.54% | 19.31 | 19.70 | 18.78 | 2,224,300 |
| CSNA3 | 6.55 | -2.38% | -20.51% | 6.71 | 6.70 | 6.18 | 28,155,400 |
| GGBR4 | 23.14 | +1.62% | +44.44% | 22.77 | 23.26 | 22.45 | 11,526,300 |
| ENEV3 | 24.88 | -2.93% | +79.12% | 25.63 | 25.79 | 24.88 | 5,968,500 |
The bull case, and the caveats
Analysts at Terra Investimentos argue the valuation remains discounted, leaving room for gains as the commodity recovers — a view echoed across the houses favoring the stock for its cash generation and shareholder returns. The caveats are familiar ones for a commodity exporter: the thesis leans heavily on iron-ore prices and on the trajectory of China’s property and industrial cycle, both of which can turn quickly. Cost pressure is also a factor the houses flag even as they keep the stock on their lists. None of this constitutes investment advice; readers should weigh their own objectives and consult a licensed professional before acting.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Vale the top pick for June?
It appears in all 10 brokerage portfolios in InfoMoney’s compilation — a first for 2026 — after being the only ranked stock to rise in May.
What is driving the optimism?
Iron ore near $110 a tonne, signs of a Chinese industrial recovery and a discounted valuation, against a defensive market backdrop.
What does Santander forecast for iron ore?
Prices above $100 a tonne through 2026, citing limited supply and resilient demand from China, India and Southeast Asia.
What are the main risks?
The thesis depends on iron-ore prices and China’s industrial cycle, with cost pressure an added concern. This is not investment advice.
Connected Coverage
For more on markets and the economy, see our coverage of the Ibovespa’s recent slide and the IMF’s verdict on Brazil’s economy.