Gold Is Now Three Quarters of What Uganda Sells Abroad, and Almost None of It Is Ugandan

UGANDA · MINING

Uganda gold exports now account for about three quarters of the country’s export earnings, on finance ministry figures, after a record year. The tax incentive that built the refining industry is now under review.

What the Uganda gold exports number really counts

Gold made up about 76% of Uganda’s export earnings in 2025, on the finance ministry’s own figures, after exports rose 76% to a record US$5.8bn. On paper Uganda is a major gold economy.

It is not, in the ordinary sense. Most of the metal that leaves Uganda did not come out of Ugandan ground.

The country refines and re-exports gold sourced across the region, including from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

United Nations experts reported in July that Uganda declared a record 62 tonnes worth US$6.4bn, while Congo’s Ituri province officially exported just over half a tonne in 2025. What Uganda sells is a service, and a legal address.

The incentive that built the business

Gold exports are zero-rated for value-added tax in Uganda, and export processing is efficient by regional standards. That combination made Kampala an attractive place to refine.

The stated purpose was straightforward. Make it cheaper to invest in an expensive industry, attract refineries, and capture more value at home rather than shipping raw ore away.

It worked as a growth policy. Refineries were built, volumes rose, and the export line in the national accounts changed shape.

Now the government is counting the cost

A US$200 per kilogram export levy was set by regulations in 2023, replacing a percentage regime from 2021 that refiners took to court and that went uncollected. Gold must also be refined locally to 99.9% purity and certified by an assay report.

That is a modest charge against a gold price near record levels, and it is designed to be collectible rather than punitive. The larger question is whether the underlying VAT exemption still earns its keep.

The Bank of Uganda has noted that an attractive price environment has itself drawn new entrants into the business. When the price is doing the work, an incentive may be paying for activity that would happen anyway.

The origin problem is the real risk

Gold that enters Uganda from conflict-affected areas and leaves as certified refined metal is a standing concern for regulators and refiners in Dubai, Switzerland and London. Due-diligence rules on the buying side have tightened steadily.

A large export line built on regional sourcing is therefore exposed to somebody else’s compliance decision. That is a different risk from a commodity price.

Uganda’s own answer has been formalisation: licensing, assay certification and now a levy. Whether that satisfies foreign buyers is not Kampala’s decision to make.

What it means for the shilling and the budget

An export line worth US$5.8bn is a major source of foreign exchange for an economy Uganda’s size. It also makes the external accounts sensitive to a single price and a single trade.

Uganda is simultaneously preparing for first oil, which would add a second concentrated export. Diversification is being talked about while concentration increases.

The regional supply chain behind the number

Gold moves easily and informally across the Great Lakes region, and Uganda sits at a convenient point on that map. Refineries in Kampala have processed metal originating well beyond Uganda’s borders for years.

United Nations panels and civil society groups have documented the flows repeatedly. Uganda’s government has responded with licensing and certification requirements rather than by contesting the underlying pattern.

The commercial logic is straightforward. Refining is a margin business, and margins do not care where the feedstock came from as long as it can be documented.

Oil is about to complicate the picture

Uganda’s crude is moving towards first export through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline, and the country has already named its blend. That would add a second large, concentrated export line.

Two commodities supplying most of the export account is a familiar and uncomfortable structure for a landlocked economy.

What a policy change would actually cost

Removing the value-added tax exemption would raise the cost of refining in Uganda relative to alternatives in Dubai and Kigali. Refining capital is mobile.

The government therefore faces the usual incentive dilemma: the measure that raises revenue per kilogram may reduce the number of kilograms.

Refining is a thin-margin, high-turnover trade

A refinery earns a small percentage on each kilogram it processes, which is why volume matters more than price to the business itself. High gold prices raise the export value without necessarily raising refiner profits.

That distinction is easily lost when a headline number reaches US$5.8bn. The country records the gross value of what leaves; the domestic economy keeps a fraction of it.

Employment effects are correspondingly modest. Refineries are capital-intensive and employ relatively few people.

What to watch next

The first thing is whether the VAT treatment of refined gold is changed in the next budget. The second is the levy’s actual collection, as opposed to its announcement.

The third is whether international refiners keep accepting Ugandan-certified metal at current volumes.

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