U.S. Share of Brazil Exports Falls as May Trade Surplus Beats Forecast

Brazil · Trade

Brazil’s trade numbers looked strong on the surface in May. Underneath, they told a story of a country steadily selling less to the United States and more to China.

Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $7.82bn in May, the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Development, Industry and Trade Ministry reported on Wednesday, beating market forecasts that had clustered around $7.5bn. Exports climbed 6.6% from a year earlier to $31.9bn and imports rose 5.3% to $24.1bn, leaving Latin America’s largest economy with a comfortable cushion against external shocks. The surplus was also 10.8% higher than the $7.06bn recorded in May 2025.

Why the U.S. share of Brazil exports keeps slipping

The most telling figure was not the headline surplus but the shift in destinations. The United States accounted for 9.7% of Brazilian exports in May, down from 12.0% a year earlier, while China‘s share rose to 32.9% from 32.1%. Ministry official Herlon Brandão said the volume of goods bought by U.S. importers has been falling since August 2025, when Washington’s 50% tariff on much of Brazil’s export basket took effect, with the steepest monthly drop, around 35%, recorded last October. Even a court ruling that struck down some of the additional U.S. duties has not reversed the loss of market share.

What is driving the export gains

The growth in exports was powered largely by prices rather than volume. The average price of goods shipped rose 11.5%, more than offsetting a 4.3% fall in the quantity exported. Agribusiness led the sector gains, helped by firm commodity demand, while extractive industry was roughly flat. On the import side, purchases of fuels jumped 25.9% and consumer goods 24.7%, a sign of resilient domestic demand even as the central bank holds interest rates high to tame inflation.

A trade map being redrawn

The data lands amid renewed trade tension with Washington, which on June 1 proposed a fresh 25% tariff on Brazilian goods over alleged unfair practices and is separately pursuing a forced-labor case that could add more duties. For now, the diversification toward Asia is giving Brazilian policymakers room to absorb the pressure: a record run of surpluses, underwritten by China’s appetite for Brazilian commodities, blunts the leverage that U.S. tariffs might otherwise carry. The trade ministry projects a full-year 2026 surplus of $72.1bn. Whether that resilience holds will depend on commodity prices and on how far the U.S. measures ultimately bite.