Tax Revenues Fall Short as Colombia’s Bills Keep Growing in 2025

Colombia’s National Tax and Customs Authority (DIAN) set the 2025 net tax collection goal at COP 280.3 trillion ($70 billion), equal to 15.4% of GDP.

The figure is lower than the initially approved COP 298.9 trillion ($75 billion) by the fiscal policy council. DIAN also estimates nominal GDP at COP 1,815 trillion ($454 billion) in 2025.

By June 2025, collections reached COP 136.6 trillion ($34 billion), equal to 48.7% of the goal. Income tax provided COP 65.6 trillion ($16 billion) and domestic VAT contributed COP 35.3 trillion ($9 billion).

Customs yielded COP 22 trillion ($5 billion), while other taxes added COP 13.7 trillion ($3 billion). That represents growth of 6.7% compared with the same period in 2024.

DIAN projects COP 300.5 trillion ($75 billion) in collections for 2026, with income tax providing COP 147.4 trillion ($37 billion), VAT COP 77.1 trillion ($19 billion), customs COP 43.7 trillion ($11 billion), and other revenues COP 32.3 trillion ($8 billion).

The Medium-Term Fiscal Framework places GDP at COP 1,929.4 trillion ($482 billion), keeping tax pressure at similar levels. Tax revenue as a share of GDP shows a mixed trend: 14.4% in 2022, 16.7% in 2023, and 14.3% in 2024.

The 2025 goal of 15.4% recovers ground but remains well below regional peers. Brazil collected about 32.3% of GDP in taxes in 2024, Chile about 23% in 2023, and Peru 14.7% in 2023.

The Finance Ministry projects a 2025 fiscal deficit of 7.1% of GDP and financing needs of COP 193.9 trillion ($48 billion), equal to 10.7% of GDP.

Spending rigidity covers about 86% of the budget, leaving little room for adjustment. The 2026 budget proposal estimates expenditures near COP 557 trillion ($139 billion).

The Ministry has signaled tax measures to close the gap, including progressive income and wealth taxes, selective VAT on luxury goods, higher excises on tobacco and alcohol, and adjustments to carbon and consumption taxes.

These figures matter because Colombia’s tax pressure remains below regional standards while obligations rise. Without stronger revenue or cuts in politically sensitive spending, fiscal imbalances will persist.