São Paulo governor is favorite to replace Bolsonaro as conservative leader in Brazil, says poll

The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), is the favourite name of voters to replace former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the 2026 presidential election, should the former chief executive be ineligible.

The result is from the Genial/Quaest survey conducted from April 13 to 16, 2023.

The survey heard 2,015 people in 120 cities all over Brazil from April 13 to 16, 2023. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval.

The survey is not registered with the TRE-AL (Regional Electoral Court of Alagoas) and therefore has no code. Here is the full report.

According to the survey, the head of the São Paulo state government has 21% of voting intentions in a scenario without Bolsonaro.

Behind him comes former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), with 15%, and the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), with 10%. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) scored 5%.

Others totalled 1%. Those who answered that they would not vote for any indicated names corresponded to 25%. Those who don’t know or didn’t answer are 23%.

Tarcisio is the favourite among men (27%), voters from the Southeast (26%), and those with higher education (29%).

Michelle is the favourite among women (19%).

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