Paraguay will be the fastest growing country in South America in 2023, they say

Given international media publications that Paraguay will be the only country in the region that will decrease this year, local economists and experts point out that the analysis of the economy in 2022 is already done.

The discussion is no longer focused on this year, which will stagnate or even fall, but on the development of 2023.

They mention that Paraguay will undoubtedly have the economy with the highest economic growth in South America in the following year.

Economist Carlos Fernández Valdovinos, former head of the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP), argued that there is no longer any discussion about whether the economy will grow 0.2% or contract 0.5% this year because it is the same thing.

The point is that the economy will be stagnant this year.

“Now, at the level of any economy there are global and domestic factors that mark the dynamics. In this case, 100% of the stagnation of the Paraguayan economy is due to what happened in agriculture,” he said.

Some days ago, experts told us that the projections are optimistic for 2023, but everything has already been said this year.

However, they clarify that they are still pending international risks. ECLAC predicted that Paraguay would contract by 0.3%, being the only economy with a negative scenario in the region.

According to Itaú bank’s analysis, the local economy will stagnate at 0.5%, while BCP’s official projection is maintained in a positive scenario of 0.2%. The BCP will adjust this coming Friday.

In that framework, Fernandez Valdovinos told La Nación that just as something happens about a climate factor, which by definition is temporary, he personally no longer focuses much on 2022, as it is basically past now, but on 2023.

“Following the outlook, looking at rainfall, unless there is an excess or a sudden stop, a good agricultural year is forecast, which will be more than reversible what this year’s scenario was.

“Instead of declining 0.5%, which is what Basanomics estimates that the economy would easily grow between 8% and 9% in 2023″, he said.

He remarked that in one year, an economy could grow quite a lot, for example, Argentina, which, after the pandemic, grew 11%.

“Here, sustainable growth is crucial to improve people’s quality of life. Looking at Paraguay’s average over the last 20 years, the local economy is far from disgracing the region; on the contrary, it is the one that grew the most in the region during this period,” he said.

He again highlighted that the perspectives, looking from his point of view, for 2023 are good for Paraguay. Contrary to what is foreseen for the region.

“In that sense, I already want to see the headline of the international media next year because, by far, we will be the one that will grow the most next year,” he said.

Valdovinos even assumed the economy 2023, in the agricultural field, where if it is again a bad year, instead of producing 10 million tons of soybeans, it will only be making 8 million, which is 20% less than usual, you already have 100% more than this year’s soybean production.

“In this sense, there is no way we will not have a growth above 4% or 6%,” he specified.

He criticizes the local economy for being the only one that will decrease in the region in 2022.

The Russian news agency Sputnik published an article dedicated to Paraguay’s economy, in which they negatively highlight that our country will be the only one to decrease in South America, exceeding even the estimated economic contraction.

In the article entitled “Paraguay’s economy, a dishonorable exception in South America in 2022″, they detail how the economy of our country is only accompanied by Haiti in a list of nations with a negative gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022.

The international media echoed the analysis released by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which reported that Paraguay would suffer a contraction of 0.3% by the end of this year.

“The magnitude of the decrease even exceeds the values projected in August, which anticipated a drop of 0.2%,” the article detailed.

They add that the Paraguayan economy is positioned at the extreme of Venezuela, the country with the most positive projections within South America and which foresees a growth of 12% in 2022.

“The only one in South America to decrease. Paraguay is only accompanied by Haiti in the list of countries with negative GDP in 2022”, says the international media, according to the data released by ECLAC, a commission that projected a general growth of 3.2% for all Latin America and the Caribbean.

With information from La Nación