Nigeria’s NGX market value could reach N230 trillion by end of 2026, says CEO

Nigeria · MARKETS

NGX market capitalisation could reach N230 trillion by the end of 2026, Nigerian Exchange Group Chief Executive Officer Temi Popoola told reporters on Thursday, marking a nearly eightfold expansion from the level recorded when President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023.

The projection and the numbers behind it

Popoola said that when Tinubu came into office in May 2023, the equity market capitalisation was “just shy of N30 trillion.” It has since climbed to over N150 trillion, with a possible rise to about N230 trillion by the end of 2026 on the back of expected large listings.

The Nation reported a similar statement from the same presidential briefing, noting the market had reached N160 trillion and that N230 trillion could be achieved “by the end of this year.” The slight difference in the current figure reflects the fast-moving market environment and different rounding and timing in the reports.

If the target is reached, the NGX equity market would have expanded by roughly 7.7 times from its May 2023 level, or by about N200 trillion in absolute terms. The market crossed the N100 trillion mark on 5 January 2026, a level NGX itself described as a defining milestone.

What is driving the NGX market capitalisation surge

The bullish case rests on a cluster of domestic reforms and market-structure changes, not on a single driver. Popoola directly credited Tinubu-era reforms for the rally, pointing to monetary-policy easing expectations, exchange-rate stabilisation, and lower inflation as key supports.

Banking recapitalisation is a major catalyst, driving capital-raising and investor interest across the financial sector. The Securities and Exchange Commission of Nigeria has framed the recapitalisation agenda as a major structural reset, not a routine capital-raising cycle.

Foreign investor re-engagement has also played a significant role. In March 2026, foreign investors regained dominance on NGX turnover, accounting for about 60% of transactions, a sign that international capital is returning to Nigerian equities after a period of caution.

The big listings that could reshape the exchange

Expected major listings are central to the N230 trillion projection. The much-discussed Dangote Petrochemicals listing is one of the most anticipated, with analysts saying it could deepen sector representation on the exchange significantly.

Stronger corporate earnings have also supported the rally, alongside forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank-linked commentary, and PwC clustering around 4.1 to 4.5 per cent gross domestic product growth in 2026. Inflation is expected to moderate gradually, though estimates differ among research houses.

In May 2026, Popoola said equity market capitalisation had reached N159.73 trillion and fixed-income market capitalisation N55.82 trillion. By 23 June 2026, NGX Pulse reported the market at N154.48 trillion, showing the natural fluctuations within a strong upward trend.

The politics and power behind the numbers

This is not just a market story. It is a state power and reform credibility story. Tinubu’s administration has pursued market-facing reforms, notably currency liberalisation and subsidy removal, intended to attract capital and restore investor confidence.

The stock-market surge is being used politically as evidence that those reforms are working, even as households still face high food prices and weak real incomes. The gap between asset inflation and lived inflation is central to the politics of the moment.

The banking recapitalisation agenda forces a redistribution of financial power. Banks, institutional investors, and wealthy domestic and foreign buyers gain new influence over capital allocation, while firms unable to raise fresh equity may be squeezed out or consolidated.

Where Nigeria fits in the global capital contest

Nigeria’s market rally sits inside a wider contest over where global capital chooses to go in a fragmented world economy. If United States yields ease and risk appetite improves, frontier markets like Nigeria can receive more flows.

NGX executives and African market advocates argue for deeper continental market integration and cross-border investment. The goal is for African exchanges to play a larger role in global finance rather than remain peripheral, a theme explored in our pillar Africa: The New Scramble.

A larger NGX can help Lagos compete as a regional capital-market hub, giving Nigeria more leverage in attracting multinational capital for energy, telecoms, infrastructure and consumer businesses. That is why market-cap growth matters politically: it is part of a broader attempt to project Nigeria as an investable great-market, not merely an oil exporter.

Risks that could derail the N230 trillion target

The N230 trillion target is a projection, not a forecast from a neutral statistical agency. The cited market notes and outlooks are broadly optimistic, but they also flag significant risks that could slow or reverse the rally.

Persistent inflation, exchange-rate volatility, and political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 election cycle all threaten the bullish scenario. Global financial conditions could tighten again, pulling capital away from frontier markets and back toward safer assets.

The number is plausible within a bullish scenario, but it depends heavily on continued reforms, successful listings, and stable macro conditions. Investors watching the space will be tracking whether the large listings materialise and whether foreign participation holds at current elevated levels through the remainder of 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

• pmnewsnigeria.com
• thenationonlineng.net
• mbcgroup.com.ng
• guardian.ng

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