Fed and Copom on the Same Two Days: What This Week’s Decisions Mean for Expat Money
LATIN AMERICA · MONEY
Updated 1 times · Latest: Wednesday 16 September 2026
Key Facts
- When the Fed and Copom both decide The US Federal Reserve’s FOMC and Brazil’s Copom both meet on 15–16 September 2026 — two decisions in the same two days.
- What markets expect each bank to do B3 options put roughly 95% probability on a 0.25-point Selic cut to 13.75%; a hold gets about 3.5%. Economists expect the Fed to hold at 3.50%–3.75%.
- Where Brazil’s key rate stands now Brazil’s Selic stands at 14.00% after four straight cuts since June. A 0.25-point cut would take it to 13.75%.
- Where the Focus survey sees rates heading The central bank’s Focus poll sees the Selic ending 2026 at 13.75% with inflation at 5.00%; for 2027, 12.00% and about 4.3%.
- How currencies moved at Monday’s reopen LatAm currencies softened at Monday’s reopen: Chile’s peso hit 940.91 per dollar (a month-high for the greenback) and Brazil’s real trades near 5.12.
This week, the Federal Reserve and Brazil’s Copom hand down interest-rate decisions on the same two days. If you hold dollars, earn pesos or pay rent in reais, here is what that means for your money.
Two committees, two cities, two days. The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee convenes on 15–16 September. Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee, known as Copom, holds its own two-day meeting on the same dates. For most of the year the two calendars barely interact. This week they stack. The overlap matters for anyone whose budget spans dollars and Latin American currencies.
What Each Bank Is Expected to Do
In Brasília, the market has made up its mind. Options on the Selic rate trade on the B3 exchange. They priced roughly a 95% probability of a 0.25-point cut at the September meeting. That pricing was reported on 10 September. A hold carried about 3.5%. The Selic has fallen four times straight since June, from its cycle peak to the current 14.00%. August’s consumer-price print showed deflation, per the IPCA release. That removed much of the remaining objection to a fifth cut. The Focus survey is the central bank’s weekly poll of analysts. It sees the rate ending 2026 at 13.75% and 2027 at 12.00%, with inflation at 5.00% this year and about 4.3% next.
In Washington, the suspense runs the other way. Most economists expect the Fed to hold its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on 15–16 September. The rate path matters less for what it does this week than for what it signals for the rest of the year. Every tenth of a point of expected US easing shifts carry trades — bets that borrow cheap dollars to buy higher-yielding currencies. Those trades move currencies like Brazil’s real and the Mexican peso.
What It Means for Your Money
If you earn in dollars and spend in reais, the Copom cut cuts both ways. Lower Brazilian rates narrow the extra yield that draws foreign money to the real. That can soften the real over time, which is good news for your dollar’s purchasing power. But the move is heavily telegraphed. At 95% priced in, a routine 0.25-point cut may barely move the currency. The bigger surprise risk sits with the Fed. A hawkish hold could lift the dollar across the region this week.
If you hold local currency, the week is about volatility, not direction. Monday’s reopen already showed the pattern. Chile’s peso weakened to 940.91 per dollar, and Brazil’s real slipped toward 5.12, as traders trimmed positions. Rate-decision afternoons are historically the jumpiest hours of the week for the dollar-real exchange rate. Large conversions may be steadier outside those windows this week.
If you have a Brazilian savings or CD habit, the direction is clear even if the pace is slow. Fixed-rate deposits locked in at today’s 14.00% Selic will look better with every meeting. The Focus survey has the Selic at 13.75% by end-2026 and 12.00% through 2027.
The Week’s Timeline
Today, Brazil’s PTAX — its official reference rate for the dollar — resumes trading after the weekend. Colombia certifies a new TRM, its own official dollar rate, from today’s trading. Tuesday brings the Ecopetrol extraordinary assembly in Bogotá. Wednesday holds the main event. The FOMC statement lands in the afternoon US time. Copom’s statement follows Wednesday evening Brasília time. Check the central banks’ official pages for exact release hours. Brazil’s first-round election is 20 days out, on 4 October. It keeps a political undercurrent under all of it.
Earlier updates
Both decisions landed as previewed, in opposite directions. The Fed raised its target range by 0.25 points to 3.75–4.00 percent on 16 September (12–0 vote), its first increase since July 2023; officials’ year-end projections cluster between 4.1 and 4.4 percent. Brazil’s Copom cut the Selic rate to 13.75 percent the same evening, a fifth straight reduction, without stating its next move. The rate gap between the two stays close to 10 percentage points, which keeps demand for assets held in reais alive. The next Fed meeting is 27–28 October; the Copom’s written minutes arrive next week.
When exactly are the decisions?
Both committees meet on 15–16 September 2026. Copom’s statement follows the end of its second session, and the FOMC statement lands Wednesday afternoon US time. Exact release times are published by the Banco Central do Brasil and the Federal Reserve on their respective websites; set a reminder rather than guessing the hour.
Will a Fed hold move my rent in LatAm?
Indirectly. A Fed hold with hawkish wording lifts the dollar against most LatAm currencies, which lowers the dollar cost of peso- or real-denominated expenses like rent. A dovish surprise does the opposite. The move typically fades within days unless the rate outlook itself changes; rents adjust over months, not hours.
Should I convert dollars before or after the meetings?
No one reliably predicts the outcome day’s direction, so do not bet a large conversion on it. The practical rules: split big transfers into tranches across the week, avoid decision afternoons for urgent conversions, and use official references — PTAX in Brazil, TRM in Colombia, the dólar observado in Chile — as your benchmark for what a fair rate looks like.
Sources
- B3 via The Rio Times desk reporting — Copom options pricing (95% cut probability), 10 September 2026
- Banco Central do Brasil Focus survey — Selic and inflation forecasts for 2026–2027, via desk reporting
- Banco Central de Chile via mindicador.cl — dólar observado 940.91, 14 September 2026
- Banco Central do Brasil via Olinda — PTAX 5.0918, 11 September 2026; open.er-api.com spot, 14 September 2026
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times. See also our daily guide for Monday 14 September.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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