Iron Ore’s Short-Lived Surge Sputters Below $100 as Market Eyes China’s Demand, Policy Risks

Official sources show the price of SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China settled close to $99.30 per ton on July 30, 2025. This price stayed flat overnight, with little movement as the market waited for signals from Chinese policymakers and shifting global liquidity.

The market’s cautious tone set the narrative for the last 24 hours. Prices briefly moved above $100 during Asian hours as traders responded to falling iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports—down 7.6% week-on-week.

Shrinking port stocks offered fundamental support. However, that limited optimism quickly faded. Skepticism mounted after China released new steel production figures, which remained decent but drifted lower year-over-year.

These declining numbers keep demand in check as residential construction, a key driver of China’s steel needs, continues to contract. Vale, one of the world’s largest export producers, reported higher output for the latest quarter.

Still, actual shipments remained capped by logistical issues, preventing any flood of fresh material from buffering prices. Macroeconomic signals stayed mixed.

No progress emerged from U.S.–China trade talks in Stockholm.  Market participants focused on whether a current tariff truce might last, with global liquidity conditions revealing selective tightening.

Despite the launch of new Chinese infrastructure projects, such as a major hydropower facility, any impact on raw materials remained marginal.

The Global Liquidity Index NDQ, which tracks global credit and bond markets, suggested finance conditions have tightened, making it harder for marginal participants to operate freely.

Technical analysis reveals the real story behind the flat market. On the daily (1D) chart, the price brushed the upper boundary of a broad consolidation zone but lost momentum and reversed lower, indicating bears took control late.

Volume held steady, confirming neither bulls nor bears dominated. Most moving averages converged with price, pointing toward an indecisive trend.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) peaked past 65 before dropping sharply to the mid-50s, revealing fading buying pressure. The MACD, a popular momentum indicator, crossed bearish, suggesting that upward surges were unsustainable.

Bollinger Bands widened as price burst above the upper band, yet the quick reversal back into the bands reinforced volatility and indecision.

The thick blue moving average line on the daily chart acted as clear resistance. Fibonacci retracement zones were not decisively tested, underlining a lack of conviction.

In summary, the past day captured a market in stasis. Iron ore’s flirtation with $100 failed to spark real buying interest as traders weighed deteriorating Chinese demand against modestly supportive supply indicators.

The technical picture mirrored this split, with brief strength reversed by weak momentum. Tightening global liquidity also contributed to market hesitance. Physical and futures volumes remained moderate.

No substantial ETF inflows or outflows were reported, and traders rolled existing contracts rather than opening new ones. The result was a market caught between fundamental anxiety and technical apathy, awaiting its next catalyst.

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