Iron Ore Prices Drop 25% in 2024: China’s Demand Slump Signals Tough 2025

The steel industry faces a pivotal moment as iron ore prices plummeted 25% in 2024. This sharp decline signals a complex interplay of global economic forces that will shape the market in 2025 and beyond.

China’s weakening demand drove the price drop, with iron ore trading at $105.35 per ton in Northern China by mid-December. The average price in 2024 stood at $109.77, 8.2% lower than the previous year.

This decline stems from increased production in Brazil and Australia, coupled with a slowdown in Chinese steelmaking due to a real estate crisis.

Looking ahead, Santander projects modest growth in Chinese steel demand for 2025, but still below 2022 levels. The bank forecasts average iron ore prices of $115 per ton in 2025 and $100 per ton in 2026.

However, Itaú BBA predicts a more challenging market, estimating an average price of $95 per ton in 2025. New mining projects could further alter market dynamics.

Rio Tinto’s $20 billion investment in Guinea’s Simandou mine, set to start production in late 2025, may pressure prices. Goldman Sachs analysts predict this additional supply could push prices down to $85-90 per ton in 2026.

Geopolitical factors add another layer of uncertainty. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House and his promise to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% could impact trade dynamics.

This evolving landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for industry players. As the market navigates these turbulent waters, adaptability and strategic planning will be key to maintaining stability and profitability in the iron ore sector.

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.