IPC Rebounds 0.43% to 70,935 as Mexican Peso Firms Despite Inflation Scare

The Big Three

Market Snapshot

Equities & Corporate

The IPC managed a 0.43% rebound to 70,934.82 after Monday’s 1.21% sell-off, with 234.2 million shares traded in a session that opened weak before reversing into positive territory. The S&P/BMV INMEX gained 0.55% and the S&P/BMV IR added 0.62%, though the FIBRAS index fell 0.94%.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexico news and Latin American financial news.

Airport stocks were the session’s biggest drag after fourth-quarter earnings disappointed. OMA (Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte) plunged 9.86% to MXN 254.81, while GAP (Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico) fell 7.02% to MXN 450.07. The aviation rout offset Monday’s bright spots, where Peñoles had rallied 3.68% to MXN 1,049.50 on gold-linked mining strength and Grupo Carso added 1.70%.

The IPC sits just 1.6% below its 52-week high of 72,111.41, with a 32.4% gain over twelve months. However, the lingering effect of El Mencho-related violence in Jalisco — where over 400,000 businesses closed, generating MXN 600M in losses and 100 burned vehicles — continues to weigh on domestic consumer sentiment.

Currency & Monetary Policy

The peso firmed to 17.17 per dollar by the close, appreciating 0.52% per Reuters, after opening weaker near 17.29 on the back of the hot inflation print. The Banxico FIX was set at 17.1910. The intraday reversal underscored the peso’s carry-trade appeal, with a 15.7% twelve-month gain against the dollar and the 52-week range spanning from 17.085 to 21.088.

INEGI released first-half February inflation at 3.92% annual, above expectations and up from 3.82% the prior fortnight. Fruits and vegetables drove the surprise, with jitomate, papa, and tomate verde posting the largest gains. Core inflation edged down to 4.52% from 4.56%, offering some relief, though it remains well above Banxico‘s 3% target for a ninth consecutive month.

Banxico held at 7.00% unanimously on February 5, pausing after twelve consecutive cuts that brought the rate down from 11.00% in June 2024. The central bank pushed back its 3% convergence target to Q2 2027 from Q3 2026. Analysts are split on the March 26 decision: Banorte and XP Investments see a 25bps cut as feasible given the non-core nature of today’s inflation surprise, while BX+ expects the pause to extend several more months.

Technical Analysis — S&P/BMV IPC Daily

Tuesday’s candle showed a recovery story: the IPC opened at 70,656.46 (below Monday’s close), dipped to 69,853.60 intraday, then rallied to close at 70,934.82 near the session high of 71,114.37. The long lower wick signals buying interest below 70,000, and the close above the open creates a bullish hammer-like pattern after Monday’s sharp red candle.

RSI stands at 63.16 / 58.80, still in the upper-neutral zone but pulling back from the overbought levels near 70 reached in mid-February. The MACD panel shows the line at 1,188.76 above the signal at 1,016.16, both firmly positive, but the histogram has flipped negative at −172.60 with red bars, signaling that upward momentum is fading even as the broader trend remains intact.

Price is trading above all visible moving averages and remains well above the Ichimoku cloud, which has provided support around 67,286–67,592. The 200-day SMA at 61,674.20 sits 13.1% below the current close, confirming a strong structural uptrend. The orange 50-day moving average near 69,437 served as approximate intraday support during Tuesday’s dip.

Key Levels

Global Context & Commodities

Wall Street rallied in a “Turnaround Tuesday” after Monday’s 821-point Dow plunge: the S&P 500 climbed 0.77% to 6,890.07, the Dow added 370 points (+0.76%) to 49,174.50, and the Nasdaq rose 1.04% to 22,863.68. AMD surged 8.8% on Meta’s multibillion-dollar GPU deal, Home Depot beat earnings, and software stocks staged a relief rally after Anthropic’s enterprise event eased AI-disruption fears.

Oil prices remained elevated with WTI at $66.01 and Brent at $70.89, near six-month highs, as US-Iran nuclear talks approach a critical third round in Geneva on Thursday. Iran retreated from session highs after signaling willingness to negotiate, though Trump warned of “serious consequences” if no deal is reached. For Pemex and Mexico’s fiscal position, sustained Brent above $70 provides a crucial revenue cushion.

Gold fell roughly 2% to $5,130/oz on profit-taking, while the DXY edged up 0.15% to 97.79. Fed speakers Collins and Barkin both emphasized holding rates steady, consistent with markets pricing roughly three 25bps cuts for 2026. Trump’s State of the Union on Tuesday night defended tariffs, condemned the Supreme Court ruling, and claimed tariffs could replace income taxes — rhetoric that kept trade policy uncertainty elevated but offered no new escalation specifics.

Looking Ahead

Nvidia’s Q4 FY2026 earnings after Wednesday’s close will set the global risk tone. Consensus expects $65.7B in revenue and $1.53 EPS, with Q1 FY2027 guidance near $71B as the critical datapoint. For Mexico, the IPC’s heavy tech and industrial weighting means a Nvidia beat could reignite the rally toward the 72,111 ATH, while a miss would pressure already-vulnerable sectors.

The domestic calendar is packed: Wednesday brings CONEVAL’s poverty data and Q4 2025 GDP details, Thursday features January employment data and Banxico’s quarterly inflation report, and Friday has the January trade balance. The March 26 Banxico decision looms as the key macro pivot — analysts remain split between a 25bps cut and an extended pause. The Section 122 tariff at 10% (potentially 15%) adds a wildcard, as Mexico remains in the crosshairs despite USMCA protections.

Verdict

The IPC’s 0.43% rebound on Tuesday was modest but meaningful, reversing an intraday deficit of more than 1% and closing above Monday’s entire range. The session demonstrated the market’s resilience at the 69,437 support level and confirmed that dip buyers remain active. At 70,935, the IPC is just 1.6% from its ATH and up 32.4% over twelve months.

The inflation print at 3.92% complicates the Banxico narrative but doesn’t break it — the surprise came from volatile food items, not core pressures. With core inflation easing to 4.52% and the economy growing a modest 0.5% in Q4 2025, the case for eventual rate cuts remains intact. The peso’s 0.52% rally on a day of upside inflation and tariff uncertainty speaks to the structural carry advantage of 7.00% rates in a disinflationary global environment.

Technically, bulls hold the advantage while IPC trades above the 69,437 fifty-day moving average. A break above 70,983 targets the 72,111 ATH. The MACD histogram turning negative warrants caution, but RSI at 63 still has room before overbought territory. The 200 SMA at 61,674 (13.1% below) provides a deep structural floor. Watch Nvidia tonight — and Banxico’s quarterly report on Thursday — for the next directional catalyst.