Ibovespa Falls As 2026 Election Signals And Rates Reprice Brazil Risk

Key Points

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• The dollar rose again and the yield curve sold off, sparking profit-taking.

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• Exporters and oil outperformed; banks and rate-sensitive names led the decline.

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• Futures hovered near 160,600, but short-term momentum remains soft.

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\nBrazil’s Ibovespa fell 0.79% to 157,327.26 points, after trading between 156,350.81 and 158,610.62. It is still up more than 30% in 2025 and briefly cleared 165,000 earlier this month.
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\nDerivatives expiry amplified the move. Turnover was cited around R$29.4 billion ($5.4 billion), while other tallies put it nearer R$33.1 billion ($6.1 billion). The dollar extended a fourth straight rise and the local curve opened sharply.
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\nPolitics sharpened the repricing. A report said PP leader Ciro Nogueira told market contacts that São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas would seek re-election, leaving Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as a contender for the presidency.
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\nFlávio later travelled to São Paulo for more meetings with Faria Lima investors. “With Flávio strong, Lula has more chance to win.
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\nThen there is no fiscal solution for the next five years,” said José Faria Júnior of Wagner Investimentos. With Selic at 15%, pricing for a 25bp cut in January fell from about 65% to a little over 40%.
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\nIn Brasília, lawmakers advanced a bill cutting federal tax benefits by 10% and raising taxation on online betting and fintechs.
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\nTop winners: Brava Energia (+3.69%), Suzano (+1.78%), PetroReconcavo (+1.54%), Bradespar (+1.35%), Vale (+1.27%); the most-traded Dalian iron-ore contract rose 1.25% to 768 yuan a ton.
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\nTop losers: Vivara (-5.10%), Porto Seguro (-4.41%), Direcional (-4.26%), Assaí (-3.78%), Localiza (-3.73%). BTG Pactual fell 3.29% and B3 fell 3.43%; Petrobras gained 1.11%.
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\nOvernight, Asia and Wall Street slipped as tech led losses. Oil firmed on Russia-sanctions talk and tighter pressure on sanctioned Venezuelan tankers; ING said Washington “has room to be more aggressive with sanctions.”
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\nEmerging-market equity funds posted a $2.78 billion weekly inflow, and EWZ’s NAV was $30.97 (-1.66%), on 47.6 million shares and $6.29 billion in assets. Technically, the 4-hour RSI is near 39 with a negative MACD; daily RSI near 50; weekly RSI mid-60s.

For the full picture, see our Brazil Elections 2026: Complete Guide.

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