B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · March 25, 2026 · Covering March 24 Session
1
Copom minutes strike a dovish chord — the easing cycle will continue, magnitude war-dependent. The BCB called the 25 bp cut “the most adequate at this moment” and confirmed the calibration cycle will proceed, with the pace and duration determined by incoming data on the geopolitical conflict. The committee raised its 2026 inflation estimate from 3.4% to 3.9% but the Q3/2027 relevant horizon projection of 3.3% remains below the Focus survey’s 3.8%, leaving space for further easing. The market’s dominant read: the ata was softer than expected, and a 50 bp cut is not off the table if oil stabilizes.
2
Iran denied Trump’s “productive talks” — Brent climbed back above $100, capping the Ibovespa. Parliament speaker Qalibaf called Trump’s Monday ceasefire claims “fake news to calm financial markets.” Brent recovered from Monday’s $96 low to ~$100 on Tuesday as the market repriced the diplomatic window downward. The reversal capped the Ibovespa at 182,649 and dragged banks lower (SANB11 −1.43%, BBDC4 −1.26%, BBAS3 −1.17%). Trump later insisted the U.S. is talking to “the right people” — maintaining the ambiguity.
3
Petrobras decouples from the index — PETR4 surges 2.69% on oil rebound while banks sink. As Brent climbed back above $100, Petrobras became the index’s anchor: PETR4 gained 2.69% to R$47.27 and PETR3 added 2.51% to R$51.95, offsetting the drag from rate-sensitive names. The session’s breadth was mixed — BEEF3 led gainers (+4.55%) while AZZA3 topped losers (−2.83%). New Finance Minister Durigan named Rogério Ceron as executive secretary and Daniel Leal to head the National Treasury, signalling continuity at the Fazenda.
01Session Data
| Metric | Value | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa Close | 182,509.14 | +0.32% |
| USD/BRL | R$ 5.2533 | +0.28% |
| Brent Crude | ~$100 | +4% |
| S&P 500 | 6,556.37 | −0.37% |
| Dow Jones | 46,124.06 | −0.18% |
| Nasdaq | 21,761.89 | −0.84% |
| Stoxx 600 | 579.28 | +0.43% |
| Selic Rate | 14.75% | |
| Copom: 2026 IPCA est. | 3.9% | +50bp (from 3.4%) |
Top Gainers
Top Losers
02Market Commentary
Today’s Ibovespa market report covers a session defined by a tug-of-war between domestic dovishness and geopolitical uncertainty. The index edged up 0.32% to 182,509, extending its two-day recovery from last week’s 176,219 low to over 6,000 points. But the gain masked sharp internal rotation: Petrobras carried the index higher on the oil rebound while banks sank on the Iran denial. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of B3 and Latin American financial markets.
The Copom minutes were the session’s domestic anchor. The BCB confirmed the easing cycle is alive, with the 25 bp cut judged “the most adequate at this moment” — language that implicitly leaves 50 bp on the table for future meetings if conditions allow. The committee raised its 2026 inflation estimate to 3.9% from 3.4%, explicitly citing the Middle East conflict, but the Q3/2027 relevant horizon forecast of 3.3% — well below the Focus survey’s 3.8% — gives the BCB room to continue cutting. The market’s take was unambiguously dovish: the ata does not signal a pause.
Wall Street moved in the opposite direction. Iran’s parliament speaker Qalibaf called Trump’s ceasefire claims “fake news to calm financial markets,” sending Brent back above $100 and dragging the S&P 500 down 0.37% and the Nasdaq 0.84%. The Ibovespa’s ability to close green while New York declined reflects Petrobras’ oil leverage and the dovish Copom minutes — a rare domestic decoupling. Asia was mixed, with the Nikkei gaining 1.43% and the Hang Seng advancing 2.79% on the prior day’s ceasefire signal.
03Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows the Ibovespa consolidating at 182,509 after Monday’s 3.24% surge. The session printed a small-bodied candle (O 181,932 / H 182,649 / L 179,915 / C 182,509) — a classic follow-through test after a large move. The MACD histogram at −172.89 (signal: −411.21, MACD: −584.10) remains negative but is compressing sharply, with the histogram less negative for the third consecutive session — a potential precursor to a bullish crossover. RSI reads 51.65 (fast) and 46.19 (slow); the fast line above 50 while the slow line remains below signals early-stage momentum recovery.
Price is now sitting between the Ichimoku cloud boundaries at 180,788 (Senkou Span B) and 182,738 (Senkou Span A) — inside the cloud, which is technically neutral. A close above 183,831 (the Tenkan-sen) would break above the cloud and confirm the recovery. The 200-day SMA at 154,197 remains far below, confirming the secular uptrend is intact. The 179,515–179,755 zone (Kijun-sen and Bollinger mid-band) is now support.
Support & Resistance
| Level | Points | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 191,220 | Feb ATH zone |
| Resistance 1 | 183,831 | Tenkan-sen / cloud break |
| Close | 182,509 | March 24, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 179,755 | Kijun-sen / BB mid |
| Support 2 | 177,186 | Lower Bollinger Band |
| Structural | 154,197 | 200-day SMA |
04Forward Look
Iran’s denial has already partially unwound Monday’s rally. If no framework materializes by Friday, expect a full reversal toward the 176,219 pre-pause low. Any headline confirming direct talks would reignite the recovery and target 186,000. Trump’s late-day insistence that the U.S. is talking to “the right people” keeps the window technically alive.
CMIG4 goes ex-JCP today (R$658 million distribution). The stock will adjust lower at the open by the dividend per share amount. Watch for dip-buyers as Cemig’s yield remains attractive in a declining-rate environment.
New Finance Minister Durigan’s first appointments — Ceron as executive secretary, Leal at the Treasury — signal institutional continuity rather than policy disruption. Markets will test whether the new team maintains fiscal discipline as the October election campaign approaches.
05Verdict
Tuesday’s session confirmed the Ibovespa can decouple from Wall Street when domestic catalysts align. The dovish Copom minutes and Petrobras’ oil leverage carried the index green (+0.32%) while the S&P 500 fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.84%. The two-day recovery from 176,219 to 182,509 — a 6,290-point swing — has reclaimed the Ichimoku cloud, but the index remains inside it rather than above it. The MACD histogram is compressing toward a bullish crossover but hasn’t fired yet. Iran’s denial of talks is the dominant headwind, keeping the five-day window fragile and Brent back above $100.
Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — cloud breakout pending. A close above 183,831 (Tenkan-sen) confirms the recovery and targets 186,000. A break below 179,755 reinstates the range-bound thesis. The five-day clock is the week’s single most important variable.