Gold ETF Falls 1.7% as Fed Hike Bets Weigh | Gold & Silver, Oct 7
Key Facts
- The gold fund GLD fell 1.67% to US$375.88 and the silver fund SLV 2.94% to US$53.82 on Wednesday 7 October (RT).
- US December gold futures settled 1.1% lower at US$4,140.70, and spot gold hit its lowest level since 5 August, near US$4,114 in afternoon trading (Reuters).
- The US dollar index rose 0.41% to 102.25 and the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 5.295%, both of which weigh on gold, which pays no interest.
- The Federal Reserve’s minutes show officials expect another rate rise this year; the New York Fed’s survey put one-year inflation expectations at 3.9%, the highest since May 2023.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 63.5% to gold touching US$4,200 and 48.5% to US$4,000 in October (US$130,198 traded, as of 8:45 pm ET, 7 October). Bets, not forecasts.
Today’s Focus
Gold and silver fell on Wednesday 7 October. The GLD fund, which holds physical gold, lost 1.67% to US$375.88. The SLV silver fund lost 2.94% to US$53.82.
Reuters reported that spot gold fell to its lowest level since 5 August, near US$4,114 an ounce in afternoon trading. US December gold futures, the main contract, settled 1.1% lower at US$4,140.70.
A firmer dollar and high US bond yields were the main pressure. Traders also read the Federal Reserve’s minutes, which point to another rate rise this year.
What matters today. Higher interest rates make gold less attractive, because it pays no interest. For Mexico and Peru, which mine large amounts of silver and gold, lower prices cut export income.
01 The session in one read
Both metals fell on the day. GLD closed at US$375.88, down 1.67%, and SLV at US$53.82, down 2.94%. Silver fell about twice as much as gold, which is typical when investors cut risk.
The US dollar index rose 0.41% to 102.25. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended at 5.295%, up 0.11%, after trading higher earlier in the day. The S&P 500 fell 0.22%.
We have no verified spot price for the close, because the RT spot series had not updated at publication. This wrap follows the two funds and reports the futures settlement from Reuters.
The evidence points to a rates story. The dollar, bond yields and the Fed’s tone all moved against gold on the same day. The New York Fed’s survey also showed households expect higher prices, which keeps the central bank cautious.
We cannot say whether the fall will continue. The variable to watch is how traders price the Fed’s next decisions after the minutes.
02 The board
GLD holds physical gold and tracks its price closely, but it is not the spot price. SLV does the same for silver.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold fund (GLD) | US$375.88 | -1.67% |
| Silver fund (SLV) | US$53.82 | -2.94% |
| US dollar index | 102.25 | +0.41% |
| US 10-year yield | 5.295% | +0.11% |
Source: RT, close of 2026-10-07. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy. Gold futures: Reuters.
The New York Fed’s survey reported that the Consumer Inflation Expectation for the next year rose to 3.9% in September from 3.6% in August. It was the highest reading since May 2023. Economists in the RT calendar had expected 3.7%.
US commercial crude stocks fell by about 3.2 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration reported (EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change). Energy prices feed the inflation worries behind the Fed’s stance. The agency also reported the EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change for the main US storage hub, which we did not verify. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
204,302.33
-0.74%
+21.85%
205,835.29
168,310
167,142
—
IPSA
10,999.64
-1.47%
—
11,163.42
11,210
10,984
1,513,213,483
IPC MEX
64,460.91
-1.30%
+12.17%
65,312.46
66,121
65,405
108,886,187
MERVAL
2,824,123
-2.51%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
COLCAP
2,534.92
-2.09%
—
9.04
9.05
9.02
4,133
BVL PERÚ
60,766.81
-1.71%
—
—
—
—
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
USD/MXN
17.06
-0.24%
-8.58%
17.10
17.08
17.01
—
USD/CLP
913.98
+0.04%
-5.67%
913.65
915.11
906.68
—
USD/COP
3,140
+0.03%
-22.04%
3,139
3,141
3,105
—
USD/PEN
3.36
-0.66%
-4.82%
3.38
3.38
3.35
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
USD/UYU
40.27
+1.24%
+1.80%
39.77
40.27
40.23
—
USD/PYG
5,939
+1.68%
-19.54%
5,841
5,939
5,925
—
USD/BOB
11.64
-0.76%
+72.04%
11.73
11.72
11.64
—
USD/DOP
58.34
+1.25%
-3.44%
57.62
58.34
58.04
—
USD/CRC
445.92
+0.89%
-9.71%
441.97
448.50
445.92
—
03 What moved it
A stronger dollar made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar index rose 0.41%, and Treasury yields stayed near multi-year highs.
The Fed’s September minutes were published on Wednesday. Officials see another rate rise this year, according to the document. Gold had fallen to a two-month low on the day, before the release.
04 The Latin American read
Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer, according to the Silver Institute, and Peru is a major gold and silver miner. Weaker prices cut mining income and tax receipts in both countries.
Latin American central banks also hold gold, and the metal often moves against the dollar. Wednesday’s move followed that pattern.
05 The names to watch
GLD is the most liquid way to follow gold in the United States. SLV shows how much harder silver moves, with a fall of 2.94% against gold’s 1.67%.
Miners such as Peru’s Buenaventura, which also trades in New York, fell 2.54% on the day.
06 The outlook
Gold’s next move depends on the Fed’s path. A hold in October is widely expected, and a rise in December is still debated by traders.
A weaker dollar or falling yields would help the metal. A further rise in oil prices would raise inflation fears and could keep rates higher.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on what gold will hit in October priced a touch of US$4,200 at 63.5% and a touch of US$4,000 at 48.5%, with US$130,198 traded (read at 8:45 pm ET on 7 October). For silver, it priced a touch of US$62 at 67.0% and US$58 at 70.5%.
These prices are bets on price levels, not forecasts. Spot gold had already traded below US$4,100 on the day.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Fed path: Traders will look for any signal on the next rate decision after the minutes.
- US dollar and yields: Further gains would add pressure on gold.
- Inflation data: US inflation numbers and survey data feed the rate outlook.
- Mexico and Peru: Lower prices cut mining income in both silver producers.
Background: Gold Rises 0.4% to US$4,151 as Dollar Slips | Gold & Silver, Oct 6.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold fall on 7 October?
A stronger dollar and high US Treasury yields weighed on gold, while the Fed’s minutes pointed to another rate rise this year. The GLD fund fell 1.67%.
Where did gold futures settle?
US December gold futures settled 1.1% lower at US$4,140.70, according to Reuters.
Why did silver fall more than gold?
Silver is more volatile and also has industrial uses. The SLV fund fell 2.94% against 1.67% for GLD.
Which Latin American countries mine silver?
Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer, according to the Silver Institute, and Peru is also a major miner.
Market data: RT; futures: Reuters; survey: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:45 pm ET, 7 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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