Gold Pulls Back From Record Highs As Risk Mood Shifts And Traders Cash Out
Key Points
- Gold slipped after a record run, with traders booking profits as peace-talk headlines cooled the safe-haven bid.
- Futures activity stayed heavy, while ETF holdings remained elevated—signs the move was also positioning-driven.
- The trend is still up on daily charts, but short-term momentum has turned choppy and overbought conditions are easing.
Gold started the week on the defensive after a blistering, momentum-heavy climb into year-end. Spot prices were trading around $4,455/oz in early London hours, down roughly 1.7%, after touching a fresh record near $4,549.71/oz late last week.
On TradingView’s feed, XAUUSD was near $4,472/oz around 08:03 UTC, while another widely followed pricing snapshot had gold around $4,487/oz.
The immediate trigger was a familiar cocktail: profit-taking plus a softer fear bid. Traders pointed to a more constructive tone in Ukraine-related headlines.
President Donald Trump said he and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were “maybe very close” to an agreement, reducing the urgency to pay up for insurance. In a market that had surged in near-straight lines, any easing of headline risk was enough to spark a fast unwind.
Strong Inflows Keep Gold Elevated
Zooming out, the past week’s rise was built on three pillars: expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy next year, a friendlier dollar backdrop, and persistent demand from official and institutional buyers.
Central bank purchases were widely discussed in the market narrative, alongside a standout year for gold ETFs—figures circulating in industry channels put inflows near $89 billion (about 749 tonnes) for 2025, with central-bank buying expected around 863 tonnes.
Positioning signals also stood out. On Friday, COMEX gold futures traded about 203,018 contracts, with open interest around 496,811, up 8,511.
The 1-oz gold contract saw roughly 65,582 traded, with open interest near 16,761. In ETFs, GLD holdings were about 1,071.13 tonnes, and it traded roughly 10.45 million shares on Dec. 26.
Physical markets told a more nuanced story. In India, retail demand cooled sharply, with discounts widening to as much as $61/oz as buyers balked at record levels.
China looked steadier: discounts narrowed to $15–$30/oz, helped by tight supply linked to import quotas and a firmer yuan, according to dealers including MKS PAMP’s Bernard Sin.
Technically, the message is “cooling, not collapsing.” On the 4-hour chart, momentum has weakened (RSI near 52, MACD turning negative), with resistance around $4,493–$4,497 and first support near $4,443–$4,448, then $4,410 and $4,402.
The daily chart still signals a strong uptrend, but it is stretched—RSI around 71—making consolidation the more likely near-term path than another straight sprint higher.
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