Gold Holds Firm as Market Eyes U.S. Policy and Global Risks

Gold prices edged higher to $3,340.91 per ounce on July 4, 2025, according to Trading Economics, marking a 0.44% gain from the previous day.

The market responded to a mix of macroeconomic signals and geopolitical developments, with traders closely watching U.S. fiscal policy and global tensions.

The price action followed a volatile session, where gold dipped after strong U.S. jobs data but regained ground overnight as concerns about U.S. debt and Middle East risks resurfaced.

The U.S. dollar remained subdued after the Federal Reserve’s cautious economic outlook and a recent credit rating downgrade. This weakness made gold more attractive to international buyers, supporting demand.

Meanwhile, reports of potential military escalation in the Middle East and uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies added to safe-haven flows. Gold futures opened at $3,369 per ounce on July 3, up 0.6% from the previous close, but prices have stayed below $3,400 since mid-June.

In India, gold traded at ₹96,989 per 10 grams on the MCX at 9:35 AM, reflecting both global cues and local demand. Major Asian and Middle Eastern markets aligned with global prices, as physical demand in China and India remained steady.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange and other regional hubs saw robust activity, with buyers responding to currency moves and geopolitical headlines. ETF flows have shown mixed signals.

After record inflows in the first quarter of 2025, recent weeks saw net outflows, with May registering a $1.8 billion decline led by North America and Asia.

However, total ETF holdings remain near historic highs, indicating that institutional investors still view gold as a hedge against uncertainty.

Trading volumes across major exchanges stayed strong, confirming gold’s status as a liquid asset. Technical analysis of the daily chart reveals a market in consolidation.

The price hovers near the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, with the 200-day average well below current levels, confirming a long-term uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 51, suggesting neutral momentum and no clear overbought or oversold conditions.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a flattening trend, with the signal line and MACD line converging, reflecting a pause in upward momentum.

Bollinger Bands indicate that price volatility has narrowed, with gold trading close to the middle band, signaling a lack of strong directional bias. Support levels appear at $3,285, while resistance sits at $3,350 to $3,400.

The four-hour chart confirms this consolidation, with price action oscillating between these key levels. Volume analysis does not show any significant spikes, suggesting that recent moves lack conviction from large market participants.

Macroeconomic fundamentals continue to drive the narrative. The passage of a major U.S. tax-cut and spending bill has raised concerns about long-term debt, which supports gold as a hedge.

At the same time, strong U.S. employment data has tempered expectations for imminent interest rate cuts, limiting gold’s upside in the short term. Geopolitical risks and ongoing trade tensions keep safe-haven demand alive, but the market remains sensitive to new policy signals.

Gold’s story over the last 24 hours reflects a market caught between competing forces. Fiscal and geopolitical concerns support prices, while strong economic data and a resilient dollar cap gains. Technical indicators point to consolidation, with no clear breakout in sight.

Traders and investors continue to watch for decisive moves in policy and global risk, knowing that gold’s role as a store of value remains central in uncertain times.

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