The week opened with sharp weakness in U.S. manufacturing, renewed trade strength in Europe, and a narrowing trade deficit in India, offset by signs of contraction in Brazil.
In the United States, the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -8.7 in September, far below expectations and reversing August’s strong 11.9 reading.
Treasury bill auctions showed steady demand, with three- and six-month yields broadly stable.
Europe delivered a more positive trade picture. The eurozone reported a €12.4 billion surplus in July, up from €8.0 billion previously.
Italy’s surplus rose to €7.9 billion, boosted by a €6 billion non-EU balance, while Germany posted mixed wholesale price trends: +0.7% year-on-year but -0.6% month-on-month.
French short-term debt auctions cleared at slightly higher yields, while the Bundesbank’s monthly report confirmed Germany’s fragile but steady recovery.
ECB officials including Isabel Schnabel and Christine Lagarde emphasized vigilance against inflation risks while acknowledging uneven growth momentum.
Global Economy News Briefing for September 15, 2025
In India, wholesale prices returned to positive territory, rising 0.5% annually in August after months of deflation.
Manufacturing inflation accelerated to 2.6%, though food and fuel prices remained negative. India’s trade deficit narrowed to $26.5 billion in August, as imports slipped while exports declined moderately.
Brazil reported another contraction in July activity, with the IBC-Br index down 0.5%, deeper than expected. Analysts continue to track expectations through the central bank’s Focus survey for signs of recovery.
Elsewhere, Canada posted stronger manufacturing and wholesale sales in July, alongside higher vehicle sales, pointing to solid demand.
Switzerland’s producer prices fell 1.8% annually, deepening deflationary pressures, while Norway’s trade surplus expanded to NOK 60.1 billion
. In Asia, Hong Kong’s industry grew 0.8% in Q2, though producer price growth eased. Japan’s markets were closed for a holiday.
Overall, the day highlighted sharp U.S. industrial weakness, Europe’s trade resilience, India’s tentative inflation rebound, and ongoing struggles in Brazil, reflecting the fragility of the global economy’s recovery path.
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