Dollar Rises Against Uruguay Peso as July Rally Gains Momentum

Data for July 15, 2025, sourced from official market records, confirms the US Dollar began a significant advance against the Uruguay Peso at the start of July, diverging from earlier Peso strength.

On July 1, the exchange rate opened near 39.96 UYU per Dollar. Throughout the first two weeks of July, the Dollar’s upward movement accelerated, reaching just above 40.74 by the morning of July 15.

The rising pattern saw the Dollar appreciate by nearly 2% against the Peso over this span, reversing the moderate declining trend of previous months and establishing a decisive move in the Dollar’s favor.

The Dollar’s rally aligns with global currency dynamics. The Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 97.97 this morning, recovering from deeper lows but remaining in its 2025 downtrend.

Market forecasters point to recent optimism from US employment statistics and persistent uncertainty in global trade, which have tempered risk appetite and supported the US currency during July.

Locally, the Peso’s retreat came despite Uruguay’s stable fundamentals. Official figures indicate June inflation at 4.59%, holding inside the Central Bank’s 3–6% policy band for a 25th straight month.

The main interest rate, adjusted to 9%, remains firmly contractionary. Export revenue from beef and soy continued to provide a cushion, and trade flows revealed no acute foreign capital stress.

Yet, currency dealers in Montevideo reported a shift, beginning July 1, from Peso buy demand toward Dollar accumulation, reflecting both external influences and speculative positioning by local actors.

Technical indicators corroborate the Dollar’s turn. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved up toward 52, ending an oversold phase and signaling neutral-to-bullish momentum.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) analysis shows a bullish crossover, indicating that the Dollar’s trend reversal gained confirmation as July progressed.

Key moving averages (short, medium, and long-term) show the market price crossing above their respective levels of 40.54, 41.08, and 42.37, marking the first sustained upward momentum in months.

Bollinger Bands, which tightened through late June, began expanding after July 1, confirming increased volatility as the Dollar surged.

Important support appears at 40.39, while resistance lingers between 40.75 and 41.08—levels which have repeatedly tested intraday highs this month.

Volumes in July’s first two weeks reflected heavier Dollar-buying activity. However, no signs of intervention by the Central Bank surfaced, and official communication continued to describe market conditions as orderly.

Market observers attribute the acceleration of the Dollar’s momentum since July 1 principally to shifting sentiment in global currency markets, recent US policy data, and positioning rather than to changes in Uruguay’s domestic fundamentals.

In summary, the clear story since July 1 is one of Dollar strength returning—steadily at first, then accelerating as the month progressed—anchored by a combination of external currency market factors and technical triggers, rather than by a breakdown of Uruguay’s economic fundamentals.