Daily Global Economy Overview: Monday, September 22, 2025

Early-week releases point to a soft-landing mix: growth signals improved at the margin in the US and India, price pressures stayed tame across much of Asia and Europe, and front-end US funding costs edged lower.

The main outlier was Canada, where factory-gate prices firmed even as raw-material costs dipped on the month, a reminder that pipeline inflation can re-emerge unevenly. Australia’s PMIs cooled but remained in expansion, suggesting momentum is slowing rather than stalling.

United States

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved to −0.12 in August from −0.28, still below trend but less negative. Three- and six-month Treasury bill auction stops eased to 3.860% and 3.705%, respectively, reflecting slightly looser front-end financial conditions after the recent policy shift.

A heavy slate of Fed communication (Williams, Barkin) keeps the focus on how officials balance softer activity against the inflation path.

Canada

Producer-price dynamics were mixed but firmer overall. The Industrial Product Price Index rose 0.5% m/m in August (4.0% y/y), beating consensus, while the Raw Materials Price Index fell 0.6% m/m but accelerated to 3.2% y/y.

The combination—higher output prices alongside a monthly dip in inputs—could buoy near-term margins but complicates the Bank of Canada’s disinflation narrative; remarks from senior BoC officials (Rogers, Kozicki) are timely.

Europe

Euro area consumer confidence improved to −14.9 in September (from −15.5), continuing a cautious climb from mid-year lows.

French Treasury bill auctions cleared essentially unchanged (3M 2.007%, 6M 2.027%, 12M 2.048%), signaling stable money-market conditions.

A cluster of ECB and Bundesbank speeches (Lane, Mauderer, Nagel, Balz) comes as sentiment heals but remains well below pre-pandemic norms.

United Kingdom

Guidance from the Bank of England (Pill, Bailey) is in focus with gilt-market conditions calm and domestic activity mixed. No fresh data today, but communication tone will shape expectations for the next steps on rates and QT pace.

Switzerland

M3 money supply ticked up to CHF 1,196.9bn in August from CHF 1,192.4bn. The gentle liquidity growth is consistent with a steady monetary backdrop and subdued domestic price pressures.

Asia

Hong Kong inflation stayed low: CPI rose 1.1% y/y in August with a sharp deceleration in the monthly print (0.1% m/m vs 0.6% prior), underscoring contained services and food pressures.

South Korea’s producer prices softened on the month (−0.1% m/m) and were up 0.6% y/y, keeping cost-push risks modest.

Australia’s activity cooled but remained expansionary: composite 52.1 (from 55.5), manufacturing 51.6 (from 53.0), services 52.0 (from 55.8). The step-down signals slower demand but not contraction.

India

Infrastructure output accelerated to 6.3% y/y in August from 3.7%, a constructive signal for industrial momentum and capex. This remains one of the brighter near-term growth impulses among large emerging markets.

Latin America

Brazil’s weekly BCB Focus survey is due; no figures released at the time of writing. Markets will watch inflation and growth expectations in the wake of recent policy communications.

What it adds up to

• Growth: Incremental improvement where it matters—US activity less negative and India re-accelerating—while Australia shifts to a gentler expansion and Europe’s consumers feel slightly less pessimistic.

• Inflation: Asia’s prints remain benign; Europe’s short-tenor rates steady; Canada stands out with firmer producer prices even as raw inputs dipped on the month.

• Policy and financial conditions: Front-end US funding costs edged down; multiple central-bank speeches today may fine-tune guidance, but today’s data mostly support a “lower but still positive growth, easing inflation” baseline.

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