The Central African Republic Can Sell Diamonds Again and Still Cannot Count Them
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC · MINING
Key Facts
—The embargo lifted: The Kimberley Process ended an 11-year ban on rough diamond exports from the Central African Republic, restoring it as a full participant.
—The immediate effect: The current account deficit is expected to narrow sharply as the trade balance improves on legal diamond exports.
—Growth: The World Bank puts growth at 4.5% in 2025, slowing to 2.3% in 2026, before a trend near 3.2%.
—The plan: The National Development Plan runs to 2028 and needs far more growth than the forecasts deliver.
—Poverty: The poverty rate was estimated at 67.8% in 2024 and 67.5% in 2025, among the highest anywhere.
—The missing register: The government is developing a modern mining cadastre with World Bank support, which first requires rebuilding an accurate list of active mining rights.
—The financing gap: Bangui sought about US$21.5 billion from donors in September 2025 and came away with roughly US$9 billion in pledges.
—The catch: Selling diamonds legally is not the same as counting them: the country still cannot trace its own production.
Central African Republic diamonds can be exported legally again, after the Kimberley Process ended an eleven-year embargo and restored the country as a full participant in the rough diamond trade. The harder problem is that the state still cannot say with confidence who holds which mining right.
What the Kimberley decision changed
The Kimberley Process, which certifies rough diamonds as conflict-free, suspended the Central African Republic in June 2013 and lifted the remaining restrictions at its plenary in Dubai in November 2024. The country was reinstated as a full participant.
The practical effect is that stones which previously left the country through smuggling routes can now leave through customs. That moves value from armed groups and intermediaries towards the treasury, at least in principle.
The current account deficit narrowed to 7.7% of GDP in 2025, which the World Bank credits to gold rather than diamonds.
The register problem
The government is working with the World Bank on a modern cadastral management system for mining rights. Before that can function, an accurate list of active rights has to be reconstructed.
A cadastre is the least glamorous item in resource governance and close to the most important. It records who holds what, where, and until when.
Without it a state cannot verify a claim, collect a fee reliably, or prove that a licence was not issued twice. Everything else in mining policy sits on top of that register.
Why Central African Republic diamonds are hard to govern
Production is overwhelmingly artisanal, spread across thousands of small pits worked by individuals rather than companies. That is the opposite of the concentrated, easily monitored operation a certification scheme prefers.
Artisanal output also crosses borders easily. A stone that walks to a neighbouring capital is indistinguishable from one mined there.
Certification therefore depends on chain-of-custody paperwork in places with limited state presence. That is a demanding requirement in a country that has not controlled all of its territory for years.
The macro picture, stated plainly
The World Bank puts growth at 4.5% in 2025, slowing to 2.3% in 2026, before a medium-term trend near 3.2%. Those numbers sit below the population growth rate that matters for living standards.
The gap between what the economy is forecast to do and what the development plan needs it to do is the whole policy problem.
Poverty was estimated at 67.8% in 2024 and 67.5% in 2025. Almost any plausible growth path leaves the majority of the population poor at the end of the decade.
The donor arithmetic
Bangui sought about US$21.5 billion from donors at a Casablanca round table in September 2025, covering agriculture, mining and road infrastructure, and came away with roughly US$9 billion in pledges. That is a very large number relative to the size of the economy.
Pledging conferences reliably produce headline totals and unreliably produce disbursements. The gap between the two is where most development plans quietly die.
The realistic reading is that the plan sets a direction rather than a budget. Its value is in sequencing, not in the total.
What outside investors would need
Any serious mining investor asks three questions: is my licence secure, can I export, and can I move money. Certification answers the second and improves the third.
The first is answered by the cadastre, which is precisely what is being rebuilt. Until it exists, investment will remain small, opportunistic and mostly informal.
That sequencing is not unique to this country. It is the standard path out of an artisanal resource economy.
The great-power context
The Central African Republic has been a case study in outsourced security, with Russian-linked forces present for years and mining interests following closely. Certification does not remove that history.
It does create a legal channel that competes with the informal one. Legal channels tend to win only when they are cheaper and safer than the alternative.
That is the test the coming years will apply. A certificate is a permission, not a market.
What to watch
The first marker is published export volumes and values through official channels. If declared exports rise sharply, the certification is working.
The second is the cadastre itself, and whether a public register of mining rights is ever made searchable. Publication is what turns a database into governance.
The third is whether the EITI reporting cycle resumes fully. Transparency reporting is the cheapest credibility a resource state can buy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Central African Republic export diamonds legally?
Yes. The Kimberley Process lifted an eleven-year embargo on rough diamond exports and reinstated the country as a full participant in the scheme.
Why does the mining register matter?
A cadastre records who holds which mining right, where and for how long. Without an accurate one the state cannot verify claims, collect fees reliably or prevent duplicate licences.
How fast is the economy growing?
The World Bank sees growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, rising to about 2.8% by 2027. The national development plan targets an average of 4.2%.
How poor is the country?
The poverty rate was estimated at 65.3% in 2024, among the highest in the world. Current growth forecasts leave most of the population poor at the end of the decade.
What is the government asking donors for?
Bangui has sought roughly US$12 billion to finance its 2024-2028 development plan, covering agriculture, mining and road infrastructure. Pledges and disbursements are not the same thing.
Connected Coverage
We have written about Madagascar reopening its mining register after sixteen years, and what Chad is still paying for taking ExxonMobil’s assets. Central Africa’s minerals sit at the heart of Africa: The New Scramble.
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