BRL Holds Near R$5.45 as Commodities and Inflation Expectations Steer Tuesday Trade

This report relies on official sources: Banco Central do Brasil’s Focus survey, IBGE’s release calendar, IpeaData’s PTAX series, ICE benchmarks, CME FedWatch, BlackRock iShares data, and the attached TradingView charts.

The PTAX close for Monday registered R$5.4168. The attached charts show USD/BRL trading near R$5.455 around 06:10 UTC today. The pair holds above R$5.40 as traders weigh domestic inflation signals and global dollar dynamics.

The central bank’s Focus survey shows analysts reduced 2025 IPCA to 4.86 percent. The same survey trimmed the 2025 GDP projection to 2.18 percent. Those changes extend a multiweek decline in inflation expectations and ease local risk premiums.

IBGE schedules the August IPCA-15 release for today. That print matters because it guides near-term Selic expectations and influences term premiums. A soft reading would support the real by reinforcing disinflation progress.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index remains the standard dollar gauge. CME’s FedWatch tool continues to assign elevated odds to a September rate cut.

The Federal Reserve maintains policy in restrictive territory, which slows activity and dampens inflation. Any change in the outlook can still shift global dollar demand.

Commodities give the real a tailwind. China’s official media reported the most-traded Dalian iron ore contract closed Monday at 787 yuan per ton. That mark stands as the highest since mid-August.

Higher iron ore improves Brazil’s terms of trade and supports fiscal revenues. Oil benchmarks also firmed into the new week, which benefits Brazil’s energy complex.

ETF activity shows steady liquidity. BlackRock reports 186,050,000 shares outstanding for EWZ and 25,325,403 shares traded on August 25. Those figures indicate active secondary-market participation, even as primary creations and redemptions post with a lag.

The technical picture stays constructive for the real on multiple time frames. On the daily chart, price trades below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 14-day RSI sits in the low forties, which signals weak momentum.

MACD remains below its signal line and points down. Bollinger Bands cluster resistance around R$5.49 to R$5.51 and show support near R$5.40, then R$5.38.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the August downswing overlap with the R$5.49 area, reinforcing resistance. The four-hour chart confirms a descending trendline that caps rebounds since mid-August.

Momentum improves intraday, yet sellers defend the R$5.49 to R$5.51 band. The yellow line labeled Global Liquidity Index NDQ on the chart slopes lower through August, which signals a softer liquidity backdrop and restrains dollar rallies.

The story behind the move remains straightforward. Softer Brazil inflation expectations and stronger commodity prices support the real.

A still-restrictive Federal Reserve and a cautious global liquidity backdrop limit gains. Traders will watch IPCA-15 for confirmation and the R$5.40 to R$5.38 support zone for direction.

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.