Brazil’s soybean harvest slashed by another 10 million tons

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The consultancy, which had previously projected Brazil’s production at 144.7 million tons, is yet another analyst that cut the estimate of the Brazilian crop by more than 10 million tons, in revised figures released since the beginning of January.

At least 7 consulting firms made double digit cuts or very close to 10 million tons, including StoneX, AgRural, Agroconsult, AgResource, Cogo and Pátria Agronegócios.

Among these, Cogo Agribusiness Intelligence this week released one of the most drastic cuts, with a decline in its projection by almost 15 million tons, to 131 million.

With the soybean harvest beginning in Brazil, analysts believe that the numbers are unlikely to change for the better.

If rains regularize well in Rio Grande do Sul, which plants later, some losses could be mitigated, but the majority can be assumed as certain.

“This is an unknown factor, as planting in Rio Grande do Sul occurs later… if the rains return, but they must return regularly, which apparently will not happen in February… assuming that they will return in the next 4 to 6 weeks, losses may be somewhat mitigated. But most (of the losses) are now irreversible,” consultant Luiz Fernando Roque said.

Analyst Carlos Cogo agreed that it would be possible to reduce some losses, but the rains would have to come.

Safras’ Roque said that should the weather improve, producers may still plant or replant soybeans until the end of the month in Rio Grande do Sul, in an area equivalent to 2% to 5% of the state, which could raise the volume of the harvest.

But he recalled that the sector is cautious with the work of finalizing planting or replanting due to costs and risks, amid the La Niña weather phenomenon, which has caused a drought in the South of the country.

With the new estimates, Safras points to a drop of 4.2% in relation to the previous season’s harvest, which was a record.

In November, when the previous report was released, Safras’ projection stood at 144.7 million tons.

“The main problems are found in the State of Paraná, where at least 30% of the productive potential is being lost due to drought. Given the state’s production cycle and with the harvest now starting, we can now assume that the majority of losses are irreversible,” Roque added.

The cut in this year’s crop due to the drought is not higher because Brazil expanded its planted area by 4.1%, to 40.8 million hectares, according to the consulting firm.

The survey indicates that the average productivity should increase from 3,542 kg per hectare to 3,260 kg.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the lack of humidity also affected a number of regions, but it is impossible to discuss such extensive losses for the time being.

In other states of the Midwest, Southeast, North and Northeast, despite some problems due to excess moisture, the majority of productive potentials are being maintained. “Only the harvest will be able to clarify if there were more important production and/or quality problems.”

CORN

Safras also cut its estimate for Brazil’s corn crop to 115.64 million tons, down from 116.085 million tons in December.

The adjustment from last month’s figures takes into account the drought issues in the southern states of Brazil, according to Safras analyst Paulo Molinari.

He projects strong growth in the second crop, to 82.05 million tons, after losses in the previous season due to drought and frost.