Brazil’s Right Splinters as Tariffs and Political Uncertainty Shape 2026 Race

Official government and party sources confirm Brazil’s right-wing faces a major split ahead of the 2026 presidential race.
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\nFive sitting governors—Tarcísio de Freitas (São Paulo), Ronaldo Caiado (Goiás), Ratinho Jr. (Paraná), Romeu Zema (Minas Gerais), and Eduardo Leite (Rio Grande do Sul)—have emerged as possible candidates.
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\nThey compete with Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains barred from running until 2030 due to a Supreme Court ruling related to the 2023 coup attempt.
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\nTarcísio de Freitas, seen as the strongest contender if he wins Bolsonaro’s backing, recently tried to negotiate with the U.S. after President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports.
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\nThis tariff, confirmed by the U.S. Trade Representative and Brazil’s Ministry of Economy, targets key sectors such as beef, coffee, orange juice, and steel, which together accounted for over $20 billion in exports in 2024, according to official trade data.
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\nEduardo Bolsonaro publicly opposed Tarcísio’s efforts, insisting that any deal with the U.S. must include amnesty for those prosecuted after the January 2023 events. He has also lobbied his father not to support Tarcísio, arguing it would give away the family’s political power.
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Right-Wing Rift Deepens in Brazil

\nThis dispute has deepened the rift among right-wing leaders, with some, like Zema, calling the tariffs “wrong and unfair,” while others blame President Lula and the Supreme Court for the fallout.
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\nRomeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado, both finishing their last terms as governors, have little to lose by running for president. Caiado has already declared his candidacy, stating he will only step aside if Jair Bolsonaro becomes eligible—an unlikely scenario.
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\nParty strategists warn that too many right-wing candidates will split the vote, making it easier for President Lula to win re-election. Lula, backed by a united left, has used the tariff dispute to rally support and paint the right as divided and vulnerable to foreign pressure.
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\nBusiness leaders and center-right parties have called for unity behind Tarcísio, arguing that only a single candidate can challenge Lula. However, Bolsonaro’s refusal to endorse anyone, unless they promise him a pardon if convicted, has stalled any agreement.
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\nParty leaders also fear that multiple campaigns will drain resources from crucial state and congressional races. With the Trump tariffs threatening Brazil’s exports and the right unable to unite, Lula’s path to re-election looks clearer.
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\nThe political split not only weakens the opposition but also adds risk for Brazil’s export-driven economy at a time of global uncertainty.

For the full picture, see our Brazil Elections 2026: Complete Guide.

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