Brazil’s Iron Ore Exports Climb 5.6% in 2024, Reaching 270 Million Tons
Brazil’s iron ore exports have shown remarkable growth in 2024, with the country exporting 270.3 million tons of the commodity from January to September. This represents a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) provided these figures.
The value of these exports reached $20.7 billion in the first nine months of 2024. This marks a 6.3% rise from the $19.4 billion recorded in the same period last year. July saw the highest monthly export volume at 37 million tons.
September’s exports totaled 34.4 million tons, up 2.07% from September 2023. Daniel Sasson, an analyst at Itaú BBA, expects this trend to continue until year-end. However, he notes that lower average prices may affect overall export value.
Itaú BBA projects an annual average price of $107 per ton. This is lower than the $120 per ton for iron ore traded in China. Sasson suggests Vale’s exports might increase in the coming months due to raised production estimates.
Vale recently increased its iron ore production forecast for 2024. The new target ranges from 323 to 330 million tons, up from the previous 310-320 million tons. This marks Vale’s first upward revision since the Brumadinho dam disaster in January 2019.
The CRU Group predicts iron ore prices will hover around $100 per ton in the coming months. China’s stimulus package has injected some optimism into the market. However, this effect is less intense than initially expected.
Erik Hedborg, chief analyst at CRU Group, points out that supply and demand balances remain unchanged. Europe and Japan’s demand remains weak. Meanwhile, major producers like Brazil and Australia have exported significant volumes in recent months.
Brazil’s Iron Ore Exports Climb 5.6% in 2024, Reaching 270 Million Tons
Hedborg notes an increase in the export of lower-grade iron ore. This trend is driven by smaller companies in Minas Gerais. Larger miners, like Vale, then export this material. This shift reflects the current struggles of China’s steel industry.
For the fourth quarter, Hedborg anticipates a decrease in Minas Gerais’ share of Brazilian exports. This change is expected as Vale gradually resumes operations at its mines in Pará. Increased rainfall in the coming months may also impact mining and processing activities.
While Brazilian iron ore exports and revenues are higher than last year, commodity prices in the final months may affect financial performance. The industry continues to adapt to changing global demand and market conditions.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
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